[SoothSayer]

Take a look at the factsheets shown here. Do they make sense to you?

From the WEO factsheet for 2005:
Price assumptions have been revised upward from WEO-2004 after years of increasing energy prices. The average crude price paid by IEA countries was $36.33 per barrel (averaging approximately $5 less than WTI) in 2004, peaking at $65 (2004-dollars) in September 2005. In the IEA Reference Scenario, the price is assumed to ease to around $35 in 2010 as new production and refining capacity come on stream. It is then assumed to rise slowly to $37 in 2020 and $39 in 2030 (which is $10 higher than in WEO-2004).

$65 dropping to $35 in 2010 ??? Is this even vaguely possible?

Now take a look at their (huge!) older reports available free here.
Although only 4 years old these reports are talking about $20 prices. Good forecasting guys!

These are supposed to be professional analysts ... if they get it so wrong, how can we trust the validity of ANY report?

[mekrob]

These guys are complete optimists. They think that if the capability is there, then the production will occur. They don't see any problems with OPEC, even though they'll halt production. Nor with Russia. Russia has huge reserves, but just no infrastructure and no desire to build that infrastructure, thus halting much of the 'new' production coming online. They don't think there will be wars or unrest or political propoganda or anything that will happen within the next few years.

But if we assume that everything is peachy and take CERA's estimates to heart, then I guess 35 dollar oil is pretty resonable, but then again, expecting the world to turn out perfect is the essence of irrationality and insanity.

I wonder how their oil at $5/barrel prediction turned out.

[Wildwell]

Economic/financial advising is one of the biggest cons going! It is a travesty of justice that people can make millions of dollars for ‘betting and guesswork’, while other people toil away in fields or sweatshops.

Not so long ago there was an experiment where 3 people were allowed to select shares as a comparison to see which person could get the most return over a certain period.

The people were: A young girl picked most things at random, a financial guru, and someone who said they could predict the future. Guess who got the most gain on the shares? Answers on a postcard.