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"The Big Chill": attentive article.

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

"The Big Chill": attentive article.

Unread postby killJOY » Tue 13 Dec 2005, 08:02:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hile the Big Chill will hit low-income households the hardest, no one may be immune if the weather turns foul. New England and perhaps all of the Northeast, including New York City, are a special worry. Gas companies grant big price breaks to customers year-round if they agree to have their service cut when supplies are short. Chances are great these discount customers will be shut down this winter, and they include manufacturers, some schools and hospitals, and, ominously, about 77 percent of New England's gas-fired electric power generation, which requires large quantities of fuel.


Very nicely written, attentive, and informative.

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Re: "The Big Chill": attentive article.

Unread postby FoxV » Tue 13 Dec 2005, 13:18:30

Hit -24C last night (Eastern Ontario/Northern New York). For the last while its been normal to get rain for this time of year (had four white christmases in the past 9 years)

so much for our mild November weather helping Nat Gas prices
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Re: "The Big Chill": attentive article.

Unread postby strider3700 » Tue 13 Dec 2005, 16:11:55

There's always been a threat of the pipelines getting too empty. It almost happened a few years back in the east.

Remember just because gas is available doesn't mean that companies are able to afford it. They can't just pass the cost on to their customers right away, they usually need to have the increase ok'd. I'd assume they will try to provide as little as possible while they are losing money on it.
shame on us, doomed from the start
god have mercy on our dirty little hearts
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Re: "The Big Chill": attentive article.

Unread postby lawnchair » Tue 13 Dec 2005, 16:36:01

I am still waiting to see what the gas bills really add up to. In my state (KS), the utility gets to set their "Purchase Adjustment" once a month, before the month of consumption. They do this looking back on the cost of purchased gas in previous months (state commissioners watching to see that they don't profit excessively.

Gas in October was at $1.27 a therm, Nov - $1.04, Dec - $0.91. The December adjustments are just reflecting the post-hurricane relaxation of the market.

It simply adds another delay to the demand destruction. The bill won't have been too outrageous before Christmas, so to save the 'shopping season'. And, if I didn't know better, I'd feel somewhat confident after my $200 bill in early January. But watching the futures market (which few residential users do), I can be pretty sure I'll be paying $300 or more for January and February gas.

Oh, and pstarr, pressure rarely changes in gas lines (unless there's a leak... not impossible), but the energy content can vary a measurable amount (increased Nitrogen gas to boost the pressure). This wouldn't help matters in the long-term, though. If more (mixed) gas is needed to warm the house, the furnace will just stay on that much longer.
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Re: "The Big Chill": attentive article.

Unread postby GoIllini » Tue 13 Dec 2005, 17:28:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('strider3700', 'T')here's always been a threat of the pipelines getting too empty. It almost happened a few years back in the east.

Remember just because gas is available doesn't mean that companies are able to afford it. They can't just pass the cost on to their customers right away, they usually need to have the increase ok'd. I'd assume they will try to provide as little as possible while they are losing money on it.


These companies, however, are likely significantly hedged for the time being. I don't think there are a whole lot of regulated utilities out there that would let themselves get locked into selling at a certain rate without buying options or futures.

Of course, there's always PCG's rolling blackouts, but that's more the exception than the rule. Unlike PCG, natural gas suppliers have seen these high prices coming for quite a while.
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