[rockdoc123]

There is a very interesting presentation by Jeff Rubin, CIBC World Markets chief economist in which he talks about supply/demand issues and commodity price effects. Following is a link to CIBC World Market site:

http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_pub ... p08_05.pdf

in a nutshell Mr. Rubin suggests:

- oil demand is becoming less price sensitive through time (inelastic)
-looking at projected demand and projected capacity he suggests that by 2008 there will be a need to decrease demand by 3 MMB/d
-oil is poised to hit $100/bbl within the next two years
-he suggests inflationary pressures in both Canada and the US will be lower than predicted
-notes that at $100/bbl the Canadian loonie will be close to par with the US dollar and could become the new petro-currency
-energy stocks alone will drive up the TSX 2500 points in 2006.

[frankthetank]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')RONTO (AP) -- Oil will likely climb to $84 a barrel next year, eventually rising to $100 per barrel by the end of 2007, CIBC World Markets predicted Thursday.

The average West Texas Intermediate oil prices will be affected by both supply and demand factors over the next few years, the study by chief economist Jeff Rubin said.

The study, which predicts oil will average $93 per barrel in 2007, said prices are "expected to reach or exceed $100 per barrel by the fourth quarter of that year."

"The devastation to both oilfields and oil industry infrastructure from hurricane Katrina will not only impact current oil production but future production as well," CIBC World Markets said in a release.

[frankthetank]

I just posted on this in current events...i'll go delete it if no one has responded...

I think that the CIBC has a good grasp of the situation...atleast with the view of the GOM/Russia/OPEC


{merged it for ya. merges are chronological so they sift in between posts in the target thread; EE}

[strider3700]

CIBC is one of our major banks ( we have about 5 I think) http://www.cibc.com/ca/personal.html

Because we have so few banks up here they are massive companies raking in billions in profit each year so they do a lot of analysis of the markets both to know what to do with their money and to recommend to the customers.

It seems that all but the most insane economists are starting to figure out the supply/demand issues involved with oil. Even Cramer on mad money was mentioning longterm declining supply as a reason to be bullish on some oil stocks and bearish on others including most refineries.

[FireJack]

A few months ago another canadian bank (RBC or something) mentioned about higher oil prices due to declining production. I wonder how much reaction their announcement really produced though.

[PrairieMule]

Frank,

Just got a email from my Dad in Nigeria on that subject, 85-100 a barrel is possible with in the next year and a half but the good news is next couple of months should stabalize some.

He thought oilstorm was right on the mark but the aftermath of this hurricane will not be as immediate or bad as the movie predicted($6 a gallon by christmas). His advice was over the next year we will see darwinism come into play so we must adapt or die. I think I will get a copy of Origin of the Species in my stocking this year (last year was a book on cattle ranching).

Ever thought of changing the name to Frankthebiodeiseltank?

[falser]

Anything in the Current Events forum will get "drowned" out by Katrina.

I wouldn't be surprised if any/all of those predictions come true. But I ask, how could the Canadian dollar become a new petro-currency? Canada exports its oil in US dollars, not Canadian. And that is not great with a rising Canadian dollar - or do I have this backwards? Is there any talk of Canada selling oil in $CDN on a domestic market?

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'w')ouldn't be surprised if any/all of those predictions come true. But I ask, how could the Canadian dollar become a new petro-currency? Canada exports its oil in US dollars, not Canadian. And that is not great with a rising Canadian dollar - or do I have this backwards? Is there any talk of Canada selling oil in $CDN on a domestic market?