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Whoops, the BoE have made an ERR

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Whoops, the BoE have made an ERR

Unread postby spot5050 » Tue 16 Aug 2005, 20:03:23

The Bank of England target for inflation is 2%.

Often their 2% target is incorrectly reported as being an upper limit; in fact it's a symmetrical target, ie. 1.5% is just as good or bad as 2.5%.

They had a meeting at the start of the month, and even though inflation was 2% and rising they decided that the best thing to do was reduce the base rate from 4.75% to 4.5%.

Today the inflation figure was published. It was higher than their 2% target but also higher than they expected; 2.3%, up from 2% in June. (They estimate that 1.3% of the rise was due to crude oil.)

The BoE statement accompanying their 4th August decision stated;
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BoE MPC', 'B')ut, in the Committee's view, the slackening in the pressure of demand on supply capacity should lead to some moderation in inflation. Against that background, the Committee judged that a decrease of 0.25 percentage points in the repo rate to 4.5% was necessary to keep CPI inflation on track to meet the 2% target in the medium term.

Rubbish. They talked themselves into a corner. Everyone was expecting a reduction because the vote was so close last month and because the retailers had been bitching and moaning so loudly since then.

Now the bank finds itself in a situation where inflation is above target and expected to rise further, yet it has just reduced the base rate. Whoops.

We seem to have a Monetary Policy Committee who are more concerned with keeping retailers happy than controlling the money supply.
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Re: Whoops, the BoE have made an ERR

Unread postby jaws » Tue 16 Aug 2005, 20:22:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('spot5050', 'W')e seem to have a Monetary Policy Committee who are more concerned with keeping retailers happy than controlling the money supply.
And you've just discovered the problem with a government-controlled money supply. There's always somebody who wants more inflation, even though that would be the worst thing to do. Greenspan tried to raise rates in the mid-90's to prevent the stock market from going into a bubble. Everybody complained so he didn't do it. Look at the mess now.
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