by spudbuddy » Wed 10 Aug 2005, 11:34:03
. The fact that the oil may cost 5$ a gallon is not important.
I disagree. In suburban North America, this development will have a huge impact. Roughly 67% of the North American population is now suburban.
This is an ever-growing majority. The only thing keeping this percentage relatively stable is the explosion of downtown urban condo and loft building that has gone on in the last 15 years. (only in major cities)
If the cost of gas triples in a 5-year span, this means that two thirds of the money that used to be spent on other things (fast food, entertainment, and no end of frivolities) will now be spent on one thing: fuel.
That's a big hit.
One has to consider the 500-700 miles per week a 2 or 3 car suburban family drives....week in, week out.
Of course, eventually when one factors in transportation costs in industry and commerce, the prices of commodities will go up.
Our economy was always based on cheap oil. When oil is no longer cheap, transportation becomes a major factor.
Then strawberries from Africa don't make a whole lot of sense.
Commodities from China, even if the worker is willing (or coerced) to work for 5 cents and hour...will still not make sense when the cost of transporting the goods becomes prohibitive.
I recently stopped at a bus stop in Michigan overnight...while there, I noticed a huge fleet of rigs all parked...with their engines running (while they were napping)....why? The air conditioning. (It was a hot night.)
Globalization allows Wal*mart to shop for the cheapest manufacturing worldwide. Wherever their manufacturing base was did not matter...when fuel was cheap.
Rising fuel prices will ultimately kick the crap out of international commodity trade. Regional and local will become the only way to realistically conduct this business.
It is so typical of the human race...to ratchet up confrontation over and competition for remaining resources...intead of revamping the entire way we do business.
This "new world order" that the first Bush crowed about back in 1990 should have tipped us off. I don't recall being terribly thrilled about it myself.
Well, Big Business did what they did....dismantling the American manufacturing base, leaning on the 14th amendment to protect their sorry asses from the fallout.
They got us all into this mess while Washington tippy-toed around, knowing that good God-fearing Americans weren't going to challenge the party game known as free enterprise.
Take a good look.
Travel America (if you can afford the gas) and notice what we've accomplished in the past three decades.
We have created something that is entirely vulnerable to the volatility of fuel prices.
This was no accident. It was done entirely on purpose. By people who will never convince me they did not know what they were doing.
I could care less that an Arab, or Venezuelan, or Nigerian for that matter, has more American dollars to play with....my concern is right back here at home.
When an American suburban couple, both with MA's, both paying off school debt, both hit by outsourcing and offshoring, noticing that their family income has been reduced by 40%...(read: the $50,000 per annum reduced down to a $30,000 per annum replacement) with a couple of young kids...doing their research and discovering that 30-40 years ago their boomer parents were better off working far less hours...and on top of all this having to somehow come up with an extra $2500 a year for fuel (transportation, home heating)....well, something has to give.
The public will to make changes? (translating into the political).
People are too tired.
Tired from working the perennial job and a half, just to try and make ends meet.
On the topic: the money from rising fuel prices is certainly going somewhere...where it isn't going is into the North American economy.
The living wage is still the same old lottery win that it has been for quite some time now.
It would be nice if some of that money were used to re-design a workable and sustainable transportation system.
I find myself these days fallen into the habit (when driving through suburbs and exburbs) imagining the new design....
-trams on tracks up and down the main arterials
-supercenter malls morphed into inter-urban train stations
-corner lot McMansions turned into stores (with living quarters upstairs)
-market gardens planted in the green belt
It's a lot prettier picture than imagining dog carts and decaying slums.