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Oil intensity of a $10 bill

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Oil intensity of a $10 bill

Unread postby JohnDenver » Tue 19 Jul 2005, 13:49:16

Oil intensity is defined as the number of barrels of oil required to generate $1000 of GDP. From 1950 to around 1977 it wavered around 1.5, and after 1977 it began a steady drop to 0.8 (as of 2000). Source(pdf, Table 2)

So suppose I purchase a consumer product like a quantity of bread for $10. How much oil, total, was required to create that bread? The answer is (speaking roughly, and on the average): 1.27 liters of crude oil (0.8 barrels = 127 liters). This includes all the oil needed to grow the wheat, mill the wheat into flour, and bake the bread*. It's a mind-boggling image if you think about it. Pull $10 out of your wallet, and go spend it on something. On the average it took 1.27 liters of crude oil to produce whatever you bought. Picture yourself with a backpack full of liter bottles containing crude oil. That's your wallet. Every time you pull out $10 and spend it, a liter of crude is going up in smoke somewhere.

A strange paradox about this is that, at current U.S. prices, you can buy about 26 liters of crude oil for $10.

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*The technical reason why this is so is because of the way GDP is calculated. GDP only counts final products, not intermediate, lower-level products which serve as inputs (like wheat and flour). Therefore, when calculating oil intensity, we are essentially alloting total oil consumption to final products in proportion to their value. There is no oil left over which might serve as the "indirect oil" used (for example) in mining/growing/processing raw materials. All oil consumption has been alloted to some final product, and the consumption alloted to that product can be taken to indicate (albeit roughly) all indirect, lower level oil inputs.
Granted, this produces some severe deviation in specific cases: i.e. where a product has high monetary value but requires little oil to produce (legal services), or where a product has low monetary value but requires a lot of oil to produce (gasoline). The former takes less oil than the average to produce, and the latter take more oil than the average to produce. Nevertheless, on the average it is true. It takes 1.27 liters of crude oil to produce $10 worth of final consumer goods/services.
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Unread postby Tyler_JC » Tue 19 Jul 2005, 13:56:14

Very interesting.

It seems as though you have come around to the "dark side" JohnDenver.

For those of you who believe that we will be able to go through the transition painlessly (if such people still exist on this site) think about what JohnDenver has just posted.

For every $10 in consumer spending, we use 1.27 liters of oil.

If we need to get rid of 8 million barrels a day in oil consumption (about 2-4 years of decline), there goes 3.7 trillion dollars of GDP...

And that's called a depression... :(
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Unread postby pup55 » Tue 19 Jul 2005, 14:23:34

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic2126-0-asc-0.html

We had a conversation about this very thing a year or so ago, as it related to oil prices.

Instead of "oil per 1000 gdp" we did the inverse, which is GDP per barrel of oil.
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Fun with numbers

Unread postby DoctorDoom » Tue 19 Jul 2005, 15:02:18

Or try this one: the USA burns 20 mbpd of crude oil. There are 42 gallons in a barrel, and a gallon weighs around 7.5 pounds. In a week, that's 44.1 billion pounds of oil. There are roughly 280 million Americans, so that's around 160 pounds of oil per person per week. Yes, on average you are burning your body weight in oil each and every week in the USA. How long can that go on?
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