[Jaymax]

First up, I've got respect for anyone anywhere on the scale that can rationally defend their beliefs. That said, I'm quite curious to find out what the mix on the site is.
Clearly it's going to be loaded towards the high end, because the site is less likely to engage with those nearer the low numbers. I'm also interested to see if the scale works, ir if there are scenarios regarded as likely that just don't fit.

The scale is deliberatly time neutral - I'm not fussed whether you think Peak Oil was 2005, or 2015, or 2050, just what you think will happen as a result.
Of course, loads of people will be somewhere in-between the ratings, or perhaps even off the end? It also occurred to me that the same scale could be used for global warming, or other global concerns, but let's keep it to pure, direct Peak Oil effects for the moment.

[venky]

I voted 2, the first to do so. Feeling a bit optimistic today. I normally drift between 2 and 3, varies with my mood.
I was at 6 briefly, but that was the day I read Matt Savinar's book.
But seriously, I think the technology is basically there; my hope is for solar - third generation photovoltaics(probably because of my electronics background), yes we need more research, but I think we can manage a scaled down version of our current Industrial society, assuming ofcourse we dont lose our heads.

[FoxV]

I put in a vote for 4 because I believe that is how it will go over here in the West where I live (South America, and Australia included) because our populations are mostly self-sufficient. There will however be some population contraction through low birthrate and lack of immigration (US doesn't fit this model, but a Nuke can "buy" a lot of food and resources from non-nuke neighbours)

I think Europe will be between 4 and 5. High population with little self-sufficience will cause die offs. Money and Technology will mitigate this.

Asia I would put at 5. Vastly over extended pops with not enough money for mitigation, but technology will help

Africa is 6. Vastly over extended pops, no money, no technology, welcome to the stone age.

[Ludi]

I voted "4" but in order to have this happy scenario I believe our society will have to completely restructure itself, so that "society as we know it will not exist" in the future, but I don't think that's a bad thing. Just a different thing.

That's my optimistic outlook.

[Neuromancer]

I voted '4'. I live in Europe and I have a degree in History. The history repeats itself -> all great empires have fallen to be born again in a new form. Many will die, the rest will have to adapt and return to the nature. Civilization as we know it now it's already at a peak... the oil peak (and aftermath) will only make the slope more abrupt.

Wish you all a lot of Conscience.

[BiGG]

"1" = fossil based oil usage as we know it is on its way out anyway.

[DriveElectric]

3) ... an economic catastrophe, but society will largely recover within a decade or two

[MD]

With no out-of-control cycles or major surprises, I think we could pull off a "2".

There is real risk though of a "5" is we "lose our heads", as said up thread somewhere. I don't bother planning for these outcomes though

I try to remain optimistic and am planning for "2" or maybe "2-1/2"

[Eli]

I voted 5 I think we are headed for a big die off and global wide war. Economic collapse and then war is what my magic eight ball tells me.

[MicroHydro]

I am feeling optimistic today and voted 4. With enlightened leadership, and a major shift in values, the world could probably stagger through the 21st century with a (poorer and more humble) population still measured in billions.

On the other hand, war would push the world into a true massive dieoff scenario 5. So I agree with Eli there.

Scenario 1 was already out of reach by the 1960s, scenario 2 passed by in the 1970s, and scenario 3 was squandered in the 1980s.

As Deffeyes has said, it doesn't help to put on the brakes after the car has already driven over the cliff.

The stone age won't happen as long as there is charcoal and scrap metal in landfills.

[El_Producto]

Sadly, I voted 3. This scenario represents a spectacular failure on the part of those in power to solve what probobly should have been a non-issue.

I think Peak Oil alone is a problem that could be solved by going through the fire and watching Industrial civilization ressurect itself, though I believe by 2050 a multitude of problems will bring the whole thing down.

[killJOY]

The more I've learned over the past year and a half...

and the more I've tried to get the word out, through articles, etc....

the less I see of anyone listening or doing anything...

and the farther I move down that scale:


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '4')) ... a global calamity, but most of us will survive somehow and eventually learn to adjust

[uNkNowN ElEmEnt]

I voted 3 but that's for up here in Canada.

[DriveElectric]

Which level of doomerosity means that we will at least still have beer?

[KiddieKorral]

I'm between 4 and 5. The more I think about it, the farther down the list I go.

[LadyRuby]

I voted 3, but probably between 2 and 3.

[Jack]

An easy 5 for me. Agriculture without fuel will not support the present population. Ergo, dieoff will occur, with all which that implies.

[threadbear]

2 in Canada. 3 in the States. I wonder if another category could be created that includes elements of myth AND geological reality.

Regardless of peak oil, there's going to be an economic collapse that may actually proceed peak oil, and modify the sky high prices through demand destruction.

If the economy keeps chugging along, pulling more and more into the ponzi, then peak oil and higher prices will come first and will be the straw in the camel's back that precipitates an economic crisis.

Either way it isn't going to be pretty. The first is a more deflationary scenario. The second more inflationary. Ultimately living standards will plummet from sky high unemployment combined with lower prices, or through hyper inflation. Pick your poison.

Is any country, continent, immune from the worst of these effects?

[RonMN]

I'm between a 4 and a 5...usually leaning closer to 5.

It's not PO that will cause this but people reaction to it...If everybody joins together & shares their resources with everybody freely to bring the level to a 3...then i will happily say i was wrong!

Compare PO with the great depression...then look at demographics:
- more than double the world population since TGD.
- many more family farms back then (which gave people a place to go).
- i don't believe there was any gov't debt at that time.
- people abhorred personal debt at that time.

A great depression NOW, should be quite different than the great depression back then...It almost certainly will involve a die-off (i just don't see any way around that before the rebuilding process begins).

[k_semler]

I wander between a 4 and 5. With my recent campaign of filling up dollar bill borders with sites containing PO information, (written in the white borders on front and back), the more hope I think there is for it to be a 4. Since the information is provided for them, (with specific sites), I think many people will make the effort to find out what all that writing on the dollar bill was about, and a few of those people will take the issue seriously, (once they find out what it is.)