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50000 years ago

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

50000 years ago

Unread postby aldente » Sat 09 Jul 2005, 02:36:42

50000 years ago supposedly early humans influenced and destroyed an existing equilibrium already with the use of fire. There seem to be a pattern going on here with us humans and our relationship to this element. After all, how do we use oil primarily?

This particular article refers to Australia and the destructive ability of the early humans to use fire: Quote: "Climate change is too slow to have killed off most of the grasses, argues Miller. The best explanation is that people began burning the landscape". Read the rest of the article:
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Unread postby I_Like_Plants » Sat 09 Jul 2005, 04:26:41

There's a bird in India called the fire hawk that's been observed using smoldering sticks from fires to drop onto grassy brushy etc fields and then it eats the charred mice, bugs, etc left by the fire, but we humans are truly the fire-using animal. There's evidence we were cooking our food 2 million years ago, at least in our hunter-gatherer stage of existance using fire we're still in balance with Mother Earth.
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Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Sat 09 Jul 2005, 04:31:58

Impressive costume. Is it kitsch or is it Art?
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Unread postby pea-jay » Sat 09 Jul 2005, 04:36:21

If you are looking for a culprit that marked the start of our route down our unsustainable existance, look no further than agriculture. This harnessing of biomass to provide abundant energy (food) allowed humans to grow beyond a subsistence level existence, in the process upsetting the equilibrium.
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Unread postby Raxozanne » Sat 09 Jul 2005, 06:00:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pea-jay', 'I')f you are looking for a culprit that marked the start of our route down our unsustainable existance, look no further than agriculture. This harnessing of biomass to provide abundant energy (food) allowed humans to grow beyond a subsistence level existence, in the process upsetting the equilibrium.


Agriculture allowed for humans to stay in one place and build a town/city.
With this came slavery as the slaves could be put to work in the fields.
Agriculture has a lot to answer for.
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Unread postby BiGG » Sat 09 Jul 2005, 07:53:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pea-jay', 'I')f you are looking for a culprit that marked the start of our route down our unsustainable existance, look no further than agriculture. This harnessing of biomass to provide abundant energy (food) allowed humans to grow beyond a subsistence level existence, in the process upsetting the equilibrium.


“To grow beyond a subsistence level” according to who? You? What are your credentials for making such prophecies of doom?

Nobel Prize winner Dr. Steven Chu, director of the University of California managed Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory says less than 1/3 of the world’s cultivable land is needed for feeding 9 billion people and we currently have a little over 6 billion.
"The Stone Age did not end for lack of stone, and the Oil Age will end long before the world runs out of oil" ............ Former Saudi Arabian oil minister Sheikh Zaki Yamani,
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Unread postby killJOY » Sat 09 Jul 2005, 08:35:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Nobel Prize winner Dr. Steven Chu, director of the University of California managed Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory says less than 1/3 of the world’s cultivable land is needed for feeding 9 billion people and we currently have a little over 6 billion.


1. None of the links provided is about this agriculture/population claim.

2. You're guilty of the "fallacy of the appeal to authority":
http://skepdic.com/authorty.html
Just because Mr Chu has a Nobel and credentials as a particle physicist does not mean his claims about population and agriculture are correct.

3. Assuming the statement is true (that 1/3 of cultivable land could feed 9 billion people); one would ask the following:
a) what sort of diet? potatoes and rice? or asparagus and steak tips?
b) what sort of agricultural practices would be required? modern petroleum-based agriculture? if so, what happens to the 9 billion after the Peak Oil robs them of the "Green Revolution"?
c) how much additional land would be needed for:
their houses?
their schools?
their lawns?
their shopping malls?
their gas stations?
their box stores?
their amusement parks?
their plastics factories?
their trash dumps?
their airports?
their soccer fields?
their parking lots?
their sewerage treatment plants?

4. Finally, would you want to live on a planet occupied by 9 billion people?

"Overshoot" by William Catton is a very sobering look at these issues.

Sorry, but the world is not our oyster.
Peak oil = comet Kohoutek.
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Unread postby Ludi » Sat 09 Jul 2005, 08:44:58

There's evidence the North American prairies were created (or probably more accurately, encouraged) by fires started by humans. Fire suppresses trees though, not grass. Once grass is established, trees have trouble growing back. If fires are too frequent, the soil is damaged and even the grass has trouble growing back, but this usually requires frequent burning, such as the annual burning of crop residues in some places. Very bad for the soil. Trees are critical for the creation of precipitation. If too many trees are cleared in sensitive areas, especially near coasts, or on mountainsides, clouds can fail to form, and there is little rain.
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Unread postby BiGG » Sat 09 Jul 2005, 10:07:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('killJOY', '
')1. None of the links provided is about this agriculture/population claim.


Read more about this here in an artical from the Institute of Physics

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '2'). You're guilty of the "fallacy of the appeal to authority":
http://skepdic.com/authorty.html
Just because Mr Chu has a Nobel and credentials as a particle physicist does not mean his claims about population and agriculture are correct.


Dr. Chu holds illustrious credentials in a lot more than being a simple particle physicist. Read more about him here. and here

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '3'). Assuming the statement is true (that 1/3 of cultivable land could feed 9 billion people); one would ask the following:
a) what sort of diet? potatoes and rice? or asparagus and steak tips?
b) what sort of agricultural practices would be required? modern petroleum-based agriculture? if so, what happens to the 9 billion after the Peak Oil robs them of the "Green Revolution"?
c) how much additional land would be needed for:
their houses?
their schools?
their lawns?
their shopping malls?
their gas stations?
their box stores?
their amusement parks?
their plastics factories?
their trash dumps?
their airports?
their soccer fields?
their parking lots?
their sewerage treatment plants?


I can’t answer these for the good doctor, but I can say oil is not required for modern agriculture fertilizer-wise, pesticide-wise, or fuel-wise. Just because we use it currently does not mean its required and macroeconomics dictates a smooth transition to our other options just like we are starting to do right now. Decades upon decades from now when oil runs short we will use other sources for all of those and will most likely completely replace oil long before it runs short anyway.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '4'). Finally, would you want to live on a planet occupied by 9 billion people?

"Overshoot" by William Catton is a very sobering look at these issues.

Sorry, but the world is not our oyster.


Why not? The world is my oyster and I don’t expect that will change before I die. 9 billion people? Big deal, there’s plenty of planet to go around and most of it sits empty right now affording plenty of room for lots more people.
"The Stone Age did not end for lack of stone, and the Oil Age will end long before the world runs out of oil" ............ Former Saudi Arabian oil minister Sheikh Zaki Yamani,
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Unread postby Raxozanne » Sat 09 Jul 2005, 10:26:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BiGG', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pea-jay', 'I')f you are looking for a culprit that marked the start of our route down our unsustainable existance, look no further than agriculture. This harnessing of biomass to provide abundant energy (food) allowed humans to grow beyond a subsistence level existence, in the process upsetting the equilibrium.


“To grow beyond a subsistence level” according to who? You? What are your credentials for making such prophecies of doom?

Nobel Prize winner Dr. Steven Chu, director of the University of California managed Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory says less than 1/3 of the world’s cultivable land is needed for feeding 9 billion people and we currently have a little over 6 billion.


What happens BIGG is that some old settlements overused the soil that they had where they lived (before global trade and oil) through intense agriculture decade after decade. The population quickly expanded to the limit of the food supply but then crops would start to fail until a crisis point was reached and unless the people moved or found a new area to cultivate it was game over. This happened to the Maya. Granted that this did not happen where people developed long-term ecologically sustainable practices.

The Dr is probably right about feeding everyone but how long could that level of agricultural activity be sustained on the land? Even now they say that lots of soil is being made unuseable through salination (irrigation), desertification and simply because it gets washed into the sea.
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Unread postby aldente » Sat 09 Jul 2005, 10:54:24

Pre-Jay you have a very good blog going on there I just noticed. For instance on transportation I found this, quote:

Transportation is often viewed as a matter of convenience or necessity but in reality its role in civilized existence is far more basic (and vital). According to William Catton, transportation is a social leveraging strategy called Scope Enlargement. What the movement of goods allows us to do is balance the surpluses and shortages of a number of areas, so that all can progress to a higher level of development than would have been possible without it. This has reached a culmination of sorts, with today’s transportation now extending worldwide. With it comes a worldwide dependence on the continued free flow of resources, goods and wastes. At this point many places on the planet are dependent on something from somewhere else.

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Unread postby BiGG » Sat 09 Jul 2005, 11:09:36

Raxozanne,

The key words here are “sustainable agriculture” and typing them into any search engine will bring up a wealth of hits regarding this subject.

A common misconception is holding practices of the past & present as the only option and that’s just not the case.

A typical farm can produce ethanol/biodiesel from corn/grain/beans before feeding it to cows/pigs/poultry for instance while using the manure for electricity (methane gas production generating electricity) before returning the now stink-free manure to the field for fertilizer. Past & present common practices simply fed the corn/grain/beans directly to the animals and disposed of their waste while using artificial fertilizer and not getting the benefit of useable fuel from the process.

Crop rotation and secondary annual cover crops plowed under and also used for fertilizer add to the mix. Engineered seed is reducing the need for water & pesticides. Agriculture is moving forward as fast as other technologies and viable alternatives to today’s common practices already exist. They will be implemented more & more now but again, macroeconomics dictate the need for a slow & orderly change for nearly everything, especially large scale items like food production as millions of jobs and trillions of dollars are based on the current system which cannot be changed overnight.
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Unread postby Raxozanne » Sat 09 Jul 2005, 11:35:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BiGG', 'R')axozanne,

The key words here are “sustainable agriculture” and typing them into any search engine will bring up a wealth of hits regarding this subject.

A common misconception is holding practices of the past & present as the only option and that’s just not the case.

A typical farm can produce ethanol/biodiesel from corn/grain/beans before feeding it to cows/pigs/poultry for instance while using the manure for electricity (methane gas production generating electricity) before returning the now stink-free manure to the field for fertilizer. Past & present common practices simply fed the corn/grain/beans directly to the animals and disposed of their waste while using artificial fertilizer and not getting the benefit of useable fuel from the process.

Crop rotation and secondary annual cover crops plowed under and also used for fertilizer add to the mix. Engineered seed is reducing the need for water & pesticides. Agriculture is moving forward as fast as other technologies and viable alternatives to today’s common practices already exist. They will be implemented more & more now but again, macroeconomics dictate the need for a slow & orderly change for nearly everything, especially large scale items like food production as millions of jobs and trillions of dollars are based on the current system which cannot be changed overnight.


Yes it is nice to see that humans are becoming more sustainable in their practices.
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Unread postby Antimatter » Sat 09 Jul 2005, 11:57:06

I like agriculture. It allowed me to stuff my face with a pizza delivered to my door tonight without even lifting a finger. *buurp* Yeah baby. :-D

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Unread postby Ludi » Sat 09 Jul 2005, 12:48:17

The main limit to agriculture is water. Some kinds of sustainable agriculture use less water than conventional agriculture, but most kinds of agriculture require irrigation. So this is a challenge that will need to be faced soon as some of the fossil aquifers are being depleted.
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Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Sat 09 Jul 2005, 13:52:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Antimatter', 'I') like agriculture. It allowed me to stuff my face with a pizza delivered to my door tonight without even lifting a finger. *buurp* Yeah baby. :-D

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Unread postby Grimnir » Sat 09 Jul 2005, 14:06:44

It's really not fair to blame humans for doing what Earth-organisms have always done from day one. If you look at the history of life on Earth, it's one big story of exponential growth from the Precambrian right up to the modern era. Sure, there were some major setbacks along the way (the biggest took place at the end of the Permian and the most famous after the Cretaceous), but life always recovered and kept right on growing and adapting. The history of humankind has simply mirrored the history of life, but on a much shorter timescale. For much of life's history, there was nothing but a bunch of solitary cells floating around in the ocean, and for much of humanity's history, there was nothing but a bunch of tribes hunting in the jungle. Both life on Earth and humanity have experienced rapid growth in complexity during the most recent 1% or so of their histories. We may well be in for another major setback, but I think it's good to keep our behavior in perspective.
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Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Sat 09 Jul 2005, 14:23:49

I don't think the notion of exponential growth is properly applied to ecosystems. There are muture and immature systems, but life as a whole does not grow exponentially for billions of years, its impossible.
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Unread postby Grimnir » Sat 09 Jul 2005, 15:23:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', 'I') don't think the notion of exponential growth is properly applied to ecosystems. There are muture and immature systems, but life as a whole does not grow exponentially for billions of years, its impossible.


Well I'm not saying that if you came up with a way to quantify and measure the complexity of an ecosystem and plotted it over time you'd get a perfect exponential curve, but there have certainly been sustained periods of exponential growth and the overall picture is certainly one of accelerating complexity. Imagine that the history of life on Earth were compressed into a single year:

-The first, simple cells appear near the beginning of January. Until late August, this is all there is.
-In late August, you begin to see some simple worms.
-In the middle of November, molluscs, coral, and proto-fish appear.
-3rd week in November: Plants colonize the land.
-4th week in November: Bony fish proliferate. The first amphibians walk on land.
-1st week in December: The first forests forms, inhabited by insects and reptiles.
-December 8: Dinosaurs and other large reptiles dominate.
-December 12: Small mammals appear.
-December 17: The first beaked-birds and flowering plants.
-December 24: Dinosaurs and other giant reptiles disappear.
-December 30: Mammals proliferate.
-December 31st, just before midnight: The fist humans.

And all the human-induced growth has occurred in the last seconds before midnight. Sounds like a story of exponential growth to me.
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Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Sun 10 Jul 2005, 01:30:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Grimnir', '
')-December 31st, just before midnight: The fist humans.

And all the human-induced growth has occurred in the last seconds before midnight. Sounds like a story of exponential growth to me.
The human population growth charts do display the chacteristics of an exponential curve. A simple exponential curve would be a graph of 2^x : 2,4,8,16 etc. You can model all sorts of positive exponential curves but they all have the same characteristic: they slope upward like the cross section of a bowl with an increasingly steep slope showing ever more rapid growth. The yeast in a vat of grape juice start out slowly increasing as they enjoy their halcyon days of plenty. The growth of their population isn't steady though, its exponential with the largest growth occurring right before they all die. In all likelyhood, the PreCambrian oceans were saturated with an astonishingly complex ecosystem comprised of single celled organisms. Likewise, when the dinosaurs walked the Earth, Life was full, the world densely populated with a complex ecosystem. From time to time, some organism gets to expand exponentially for a while. But it never lasts. Remember, exponential growth refers to the actual number of organisms. And all species will expand exponentially if the restraints are not in place to stop them. And also, the restraints are always there to stop them eventually.
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