by smiley » Mon 19 Jul 2004, 19:28:40
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hitecrab, I'm a chemical engineer also.
That makes three of us. Must be more than a coincidence.
I stumbled on the predictions of Hubbert while I was surfing on the internet, looking for some data. It grabbed my attention. Usually I can discard these type of stories right away. This one not.
It kept bugging me so I started to redo the calculations. I found out that doesn't matter how you perform these calculations, you end up with a peak relatively soon.
What finally did it for me was that the EIA, who surely must list among the most optimistic people in the world are not able to shift the peak more than 30 years in the future.
Maybe it's just me and my involvement in the matter, but a year ago I considered peakoil as something which is simply going to happen in my lifetime. The past half year, with OPEC turning on the last of its spare production and the price of oil rising above $40 for no apparent reason, I got the eerie feeling that peakoil is something, which is happening right now before my eyes.
You know how an exam can appear to be a very distant event. Even on the day before it doesn't seem so urgent, you still have the evening to study, right? Then you wake up the next day and suddenly it's now and you got to be prepared.
That is perhaps the best way I can describe the way I'm feeling now.