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How did you find out about peak oil?

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

How did you find out about peak oil?

Unread postby Leanan » Mon 19 Jul 2004, 15:12:16

Thought it might be interesting to hear how people ended up here. How did you hear about peak oil? Did you believe it immediately, or did it take you awhile to accept it?

I guess I've always believed in peak oil. I was a child during the '70s oil crisis, and I remember hearing that we only had enough oil to last another 30 or 40 years. That seemed like forever back then. All of a sudden, time's running out.

And I guess I've always accepted it because my dad believed in Malthus' doom. He's a very conservative, down-to-earth, logical man - the quintessential scientist. Not the kind to believe in something unless it's scientifically proven. But he had only two children, though my mom wanted more, because he was concerned about overpopulation. And he specialized in agronomy, because his high school guidance counselor told him that feeding the world would soon be a major problem. (My dad jokes that he forgot that people who can't afford food can't pay very much.)

I used to try to argue with my dad about Malthus, pointing out that his prediction hadn't come true yet. I thought technology would save us. My dad didn't agree. He said the Green Revolution had only postponed Malthus' doom, not eradicated it. I guess I've come around to my dad's point of view on that.

So...how did you find out about peak oil?
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Unread postby Itch » Mon 19 Jul 2004, 15:21:47

Matt's site from that one time it was listed on Fark. I think I was probably one of the only people on that site that actually read the entire thing, or at least what was available.
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Found out the day before my birthday...

Unread postby some_guy282 » Mon 19 Jul 2004, 15:22:24

I found out about Peak Oil the day before my birthday, on February 24th of this year. I stumbled across Matt's site and much of his information seemed to make sense, so I went out and bought The Party's Over. Been a believer ever since.
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Unread postby Keis » Mon 19 Jul 2004, 15:25:19

Found out through www.fromthewilderness.com.
Bought "Party's over" and read it.. Then hours of reading on the internet..
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Unread postby azreal60 » Mon 19 Jul 2004, 15:54:18

MREA (midwest renewable energy association had their annual energy fair this august. I went and was running around getting as much info as possible. The keynote speaker the last day was richard heinburg. I heard him speak before i ever read his book. I then got a signed copy of the parties over, and googled peak oil on the internet. Peak oil .com was the first site that came up. Did not take long of reading the forums to realize i liked it here.
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Unread postby Pops » Mon 19 Jul 2004, 16:13:40

I’ve always “known about” the limits of oil; my grandfather was a wildcatter in OK and by the time he was worn out so was the family’s oil wells. They became “Defense Plant Okies” in the ‘40s - our own mini Post Peak scenario.

I was convinced that the human population was heading towards spoiling our own nest back in the ‘70s as well. Of course I went on to follow the rest of the heard to the troughs anyway.

I read about Hubert and “PO” in a book titled “When Technology Fails”, learned about DieOff from another board, and then found Matt’s site.

I was discouraged that there was plenty of PO Doomsters who seemed to have nothing to say except “we’re dead” on the one hand, and on the other hand, plenty of survivalist/homesteader type-sites with the knowledge to survive post-peak; but the two never mixed.

Many of the “Shotgun, rifle and 4 wheel drive” folks think PO is an enviro-commie conspiracy because the constitution guarantees their right to a V8 and duals - I also own a shotgun, rifle and 4 wheel drive BTW. Most of the posters on the “Homesteader” sites are commuters with a big suburban lot and only interested for the most part in their new Martha Stewart inspired chickens – they are just as likely to dismiss PO because it would mean the end of their hobby-farm.

At any rate that’s why I try to encourage folks who see the possibility of a near term peak to get their head out of their CRTs and do something other than wring their hands.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Unread postby Roy » Mon 19 Jul 2004, 16:48:39

My father was something of a survivalist. He gave me the book "Population Bomb" to read when I was a kid.

He always talked about oil being a finite resource so I guess the seeds were planted at a young age.

I happened to be reading a newsgroup, rec.autos.driving, one day in May. There was a post there mentioning an article in National Geographic called "The End of Cheap Oil" which was linked.

I read the short online version. At the bottom of the article was a link to a discussion of the story on NatGeog's site. I was reading through the messages and saw a link to www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net (Matt's site).

I went there and literally opened up a can of worms. I only wish I had learned about POT sooner. So I could've starting having a more realistic outlook on my life years ago. I knew oil would start to run out eventually but I though I would be an old man before that happened (I'm 36).

I was as guilty as anyone for chasing money and things. Needless to say I've been reading everything I can find on the subject. Talk about a change of heart! Fortunately my wife has bought into the preparation mind set as well.

And thank you to all the knowledgeable, articulate posters here for sharing your opinions and information.

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Unread postby pip » Mon 19 Jul 2004, 17:09:15

Saw it mentioned on a Texas A&M football forum.

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Unread postby Whitecrab » Mon 19 Jul 2004, 17:10:52

I’m studying chemical engineering, so I could get a job in the oil or petrochemical industry if I wanted to. Before I’d ever heard of peak, I vaguely considered I didn’t want to get a job in the oil industry because we needed to get off oil “sometime” and I wanted to be part of the solution, not the problem. So I wanted to look into efficiency or bioprocessing for a career. But I saw nothing in the news, saw every projection graph having other energy sources smoothly taking over for oil, and assumed we had enough to meet society’s needs (of course, otherwise people would be worried) and it was a vague environmental/futurist’s concern. So I’d do my little bit to conserve and maybe do some research or work taking over for oil, maybe not, whatever.

Someone brought up www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net at another message board I visit occasionally, around the start of this calendar year. So I took a quick look, went “hmm…” and left it for awhile because I was busy at the time. Then I was getting to the end of school this year, took a look again, started getting really worried. Eventually I just forced myself to ignore it until after exams, and then read voraciously about it. Between the “it’s definitely when” logic of PO and the horrors of the dieoff scenarios, I said “well I have to make sure for myself there’s a solution, or I can’t ignore this.” And when none was forthcoming… registered here.

Interestingly, learning how important oil is means I wouldn’t object to joining the oil or tar sands industry now. Wonder if peak oil means there’ll be more or less work for the industry? :lol:
"Our forces are now closer to the center of Baghdad than most American commuters are to their downtown office."
--Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, April 2003
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Unread postby KiddieKorral » Mon 19 Jul 2004, 17:20:55

I'm a big fan of Michael Moore, and I read his book as soon as it came out. Chapter 3 is all about peak oil.

I did some research, and the more I read, the more sense everything made.
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Unread postby coyote-2012 » Mon 19 Jul 2004, 17:36:59

I saw Michael Ruppert give a speech in Los Angeles about it. He started his lecture by saying, "My job here today is to scare you." He laid out the Peak Oil argument in typical Ruppert fashion... lots of slides and the definitive Ruppert seriousness. My mind was blown as were many others. I'd been getting very politically charged in the post-9/11 world, but this issue trumped every thought I'd ever had. I checked stuff out on the internet and found Savinar's page. Started talking to a home-steader guy that I met on the guestpage of Acidlogic http://www.acidlogic.com I bought "The Party's Over." Talked to a few friends about it.

Been hittin' the surplus stores often. I now have field manuals on survival, medical needs, and top secret dirty tricks from various special forces. I wish I could buy more.
"And if the dam breaks open many years too soon
And if there is no room upon the hill
And if your head explodes with dark forbodings too
I'll see you on the dark side of the moon"
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Unread postby pip » Mon 19 Jul 2004, 17:37:50

Whitecrab,
I'm a chemical engineer also. I work in refining and at least for the time being it is the best industry you can be in for chem e. My company is giving max bonuses and max raises right now with no end in sight. We're hiring so many people that we put up about 15 temporary trailers for office space at the refinery because there not enough space. I don't know of many industries is that position right now.

I have been contacted by recruiters from Shell looking for people to work in the oil sands projects in Canada. I've got no desire to leave the great state of Texas so I haven't looked into it at all, but if you want to work in the tar sands projects I would say there will be a lot of opportunity there when you graduate.
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Unread postby Barbara » Mon 19 Jul 2004, 17:38:46

I have a strong passion on geopolitics. I've read tons of books and extensively searched the Internet on the topic, looking for informations on what's happening in the world right now. I began to think there's something very big hiding behind our strange times, behind wars, terrorism, globalization and the world politics.
About one year ago, during my endless searches I stumbled into dieoff.com. I've found it very serious, it didn't look like another conspiracy site. From them on, I've found oilcrash.com and ASPO site, and when I discovered Matt's site I was already well convinced and informed.
I tried to join RunningOnEmpty newsgroup, but I don't like newsgroups, they are too complicated. When I've found this forum, I felt at home.

I "believe" in peak oil because this theory explains everything. You just need to read the news to know it's real.
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Unread postby Andy » Mon 19 Jul 2004, 18:58:53

I always knew that we needed to be careful with fossil fuel use. From about 1988, I realized that we had to do something about fossil fuel dependency after reading about various alternative energy systems. Then, Colin Campbell came out with his article on the impending peak and decline in cheap hydrocarbons and I was hooked around 1997 I think. It just explained realistically what I suspected all along regarding fossil fuels. Since then, internet browsing etc. has made me more knowledgeable on the subject.
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Unread postby smiley » Mon 19 Jul 2004, 19:28:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hitecrab, I'm a chemical engineer also.

That makes three of us. Must be more than a coincidence.

I stumbled on the predictions of Hubbert while I was surfing on the internet, looking for some data. It grabbed my attention. Usually I can discard these type of stories right away. This one not.

It kept bugging me so I started to redo the calculations. I found out that doesn't matter how you perform these calculations, you end up with a peak relatively soon.

What finally did it for me was that the EIA, who surely must list among the most optimistic people in the world are not able to shift the peak more than 30 years in the future.

Maybe it's just me and my involvement in the matter, but a year ago I considered peakoil as something which is simply going to happen in my lifetime. The past half year, with OPEC turning on the last of its spare production and the price of oil rising above $40 for no apparent reason, I got the eerie feeling that peakoil is something, which is happening right now before my eyes.

You know how an exam can appear to be a very distant event. Even on the day before it doesn't seem so urgent, you still have the evening to study, right? Then you wake up the next day and suddenly it's now and you got to be prepared.

That is perhaps the best way I can describe the way I'm feeling now.
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Unread postby keekles » Mon 19 Jul 2004, 19:34:12

I was completely unaware of the problem until I read that famous chapter in Moore's Dude, Where's My Country?.

Didn't think any more about it until a few months later, in a fit of boredom I went clicking through miscellaneous sites on zfilter. I came across Matt Savinar's site there, which then lead me to Peakoil.com, Peakoil.net, Hubbertpeak.com, and Globalpublicmedia.com.
And then I read Richard Heinberg's book, where I promptly realized we really are in deep doodoo.

I've also been reading James Howard Kunstler's "Clusterfuck Nation Chronicle" regarding his views of peakoil and suburbia. He's kind of a snob, but in a good way. :wink:
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Unread postby MattSavinar » Mon 19 Jul 2004, 20:03:42

It's all kind of fuzzy as everything happened so fast.

All I know is that sometime last fall I was during legal research for my temp job.

Got bored, or perhaps I was procrastinating, and I somehow ended up on Ruppert's site. That was maybe around 2 in the afternoon.

Next thing I know I'm getting "Peak Oil gang-banged" by the usual cast of characters: Hanson, Heinberg, Simmons, Ruppert, Pfeiffer, Campbell and all his buddies at ASPO, Robert over at oilcrash.com and yes even Michael Moore.

That was all in one night, and it was most certainly not a pleasent experience.

A couple months later, I decided "if you can't beat em, join em."

I put up the site because I thought to myself, "Okay, I have no freakin idea what to do about this. Maybe if I put up a site that explains the situation in a clear fashion, I'll find the five or six other people who are as freaked out as me and we can start to figure stuff out."

Then it got linked on whatreallyhappened.com, got 7,000 visists in one day and the rest is history.

Anyways, to those of you who learned about it on my site, all I have to say is:

Whose your daddy, beyotch?

Matt
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Unread postby MattSavinar » Mon 19 Jul 2004, 20:09:03

If anybody is curious:

That all happened right around the time I found out I passed the bar (late NOv).

I didn't decide to abandon the legal proffession until after being invited on Coast to Coast. The real kicker came when the Carrer Developer from my law school emailed me.

Somehow, she had come across my site. I think a friend sent her a link. Totally random.

She read through it, freaked out, and is now a Peaknik or "Peak Freak." She emailed me and said, "No way in hell should you practice law now. You've got way bigger fish to fry."

I thought if the career developer at your law school is telling you not to practice law, maybe that is the universe trying to tell you something.

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Unread postby satjeet » Mon 19 Jul 2004, 21:24:41

I find these web sites totally counter-intuitive. There are easily an order of magnitude too many options and yet the one I want in my simple minded way never seems to be the one that just comes up. Like how do I post a reply??? Every option is available except just falling off a cliff.
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Unread postby Aaron » Mon 19 Jul 2004, 22:11:49

Hi Satjeet,

This link will explain how the forum functions.

http://peakoil.com/gate.html?name=Forums&file=faq

All the members on this list are moderators who can help you with any questions.

http://peakoil.com/gate.html?name=Forums&file=groupcp&g=4

You can message any member here by going to the discussion/private messages link on the left.

Feel free to post any specific questions you might have on how to work the site.

Aaron
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