[Tyler_JC]

The following is an online conversation between myself and a friend about PO. I changed our aims into names in order to keep him from getting spammed. Scott isn't a big talker so I wasn't shutting him out like this transcipt might suggest.

I had this conversation at the height of my doomer days so I was a little harsh about the future. Besides, if I'd gone soft, it would have made this seem like a non-issue. He went ahead and researched the topic and now is a fellow Peaker.

Anyway, here's the conversation:

Tyler_JC: hey
Scott: hey
Tyler_JC: sorry about that at school
Tyler_JC: I was trying to make a quick escape
Scott: sorry about what?
Tyler_JC: the OPEC thing is a long explanation
Scott: ooo, that
Scott: why would I care?
Tyler_JC: I don't know
Tyler_JC: I have this fantasy world where people are watching my every move and thus I must be covert
Tyler_JC: , just messing
Scott: lol
Tyler_JC: anyway
Tyler_JC: OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries)
Scott: I’m aware
Tyler_JC: ok
Tyler_JC: Saudi Arabia (the leader) has decided that they will pump out at full capacity
Tyler_JC: leaving 0 spare capacity
Scott: so selling all the oil they can?
Tyler_JC: yep
Tyler_JC: but here's the trouble, they have nothing extra to sell
Tyler_JC: they are already at max
Tyler_JC: any additional suction on their oil wells and they may destroy their oil fields all together
Tyler_JC: so Saudi Arabian oil production has peaked and will soon begin to decline
Scott: o
Scott: so?
Tyler_JC: they were supposed to be supplying us with 15 million barrels per day in 2012
Tyler_JC: that can't happen now
Tyler_JC: they were basically the only country left with any spare capacity
Scott: and now there is none
Tyler_JC: well, not enough to make much of a difference
Scott: o
Tyler_JC: www.peakoil.com
Tyler_JC: go to the thing at the top that says, "What is peak oil?"
Tyler_JC: it's not that long but will save me a lot of typing
Tyler_JC: there are dozens of other sites, but I post on this one, so I sent you this one
Scott: nice
Tyler_JC: yeah
Tyler_JC: so, don't go to school in LA
Scott: why?
Tyler_JC: Peak Oil=Peak Cheap Energy
Tyler_JC: No Cheap Energy=No Cheap A/C
Scott: lol
Tyler_JC: it's true
Scott: good point
Tyler_JC: no cheap a/c = LA is not a fun place to be
Tyler_JC: poor, hot, unemployed people are not fun to be around
Scott: very true
Tyler_JC: also, LA has a serious water problem
Scott: didn't know
Tyler_JC: they have to get their water from hundreds of miles away
Tyler_JC: and they are using it up much faster than it it replaced
Tyler_JC: same with Vegas
Tyler_JC: but more to the point
Tyler_JC: peak oil (the constant decline in global oil production) means the end of economic growth
Tyler_JC: When oil production really starts to decline (down 4%+) growth will be impossible
Scott: unless a alternative is found
Tyler_JC: such as?
Tyler_JC: There are no alternatives as cheap as oil
Scott: that's true right now
Tyler_JC: nor as energy dense
Scott: but u never know
Tyler_JC: we needed an alternative 20 years ago
Scott: very true
Tyler_JC: we don't have time to switch to a new energy source before the economy is basically destroyed
Tyler_JC: think $5 gasoline
Scott: any ideas on how to prevent this?
Tyler_JC: unfortunately, there isn't really any way to prevent a massive depression
Tyler_JC: but that doesn't mean we are all going to die
Scott: thats true
Tyler_JC: it just means we have to get used to a lower standard of living, using less energy
Tyler_JC: like the average person in, say, Costa Rica
Tyler_JC: the problem is that we have 6.5 billion people
Tyler_JC: and the world is only supposed to have like 1 billion without oil and coal
Tyler_JC: oil gave us an artificial carrying capacity
Scott: meaning?
Tyler_JC: tractors, pesticides, the Green Revolution,
Tyler_JC: all were only possible via cheap oil
Tyler_JC: billions of people will have to die between now and 2050(ish)
Tyler_JC: the global human population will die off to a sustainable level
Tyler_JC: most of those people will be in the third world (as always)
Scott: lol
Tyler_JC: but many will be our friends and neighbors who didn't feel like giving up their SUVs and Big Macs
Scott: lol
Tyler_JC: it's true
Tyler_JC: in big cities, the poor may starve if things get really bad
Tyler_JC: if farm production (which is basically using oil-based fertilizers and land to make food) drops
Tyler_JC: people will have to go with it
Tyler_JC: Japan will have it pretty bad
Scott: im sure there are alternatives
Tyler_JC: what makes you so sure?
Tyler_JC: we haven't found it yet and it takes 25-30 years to switch to a new energy source
Scott: but i bet we could deal with oil shortages
Tyler_JC: yes, we will deal. By having our standard of living drop to the level of oil production
Tyler_JC: we can't conserve our way out of this
Scott: true
Tyler_JC: we still need oil to transport all of our stuff, we need oil (not electricity) to make fertilizers and plastics
Scott: it will be quit the collapse
Tyler_JC: we have 700 million cars that need oil
Tyler_JC: not fusion
Tyler_JC: not coal
Tyler_JC: not nuclear energy, GAS
Tyler_JC: I don't have a firebox in my Audi
Tyler_JC: (but that would be pretty cool)
Scott: it wold
Scott: would*
Tyler_JC: So, in a nutshell, that's why we are in Iraq
Scott: makes sense
Tyler_JC: we must maintain our control over what remains of the world's oil
Tyler_JC: or we slide into poverty
Tyler_JC: 4% of the world's population using 1/4 of the world's energy
Tyler_JC: ouch
Tyler_JC: oh well, so much for working on Wall Street
Scott: lol
Tyler_JC: I doubt anyone will invest without a return on that investment...so no need for a stock market
Tyler_JC: no growth=no return on investment
Scott: im aware of that
Tyler_JC: ...yeah
Scott: kinda freaky thinking about this
Tyler_JC: it is
Tyler_JC: most people have no idea
Tyler_JC: and won't
Tyler_JC: they'll blame the terrorists for their problems
Scott: lol
Tyler_JC: well, just thought you should know
Scott: thank you for enlightening me
Tyler_JC: np
Tyler_JC: spread the word, lol
Scott: lol

[LadyRuby]

I read your conversation, and it felt to me like he was humoring you, but in his head he was saying, "peak oil .. blah blah blah ... death, blah blah blah... end of world as we know it.. blah blah blah...."

I also have started to tried to have some conversations like this (not so bleak all the death and all), but I'd say things like, "Don't buy real estate! You'll be glad to be debt free!" I have a good friend coming for a week next week, we're going away, and I've already warned her that I'm probably going to bore her senseless with peak oil. I also think my husband is thinking I'm a little odd. I'd like to convert just one person.

[Cool Hand Linc]

typical

Once people hear and begin thinking about it they begin to think and then notice current events.

[Vexed]

I'm not trying to convince people anymore, except for myself. I’ve been trying to convince myself that everything will be fine.

Perhaps I've just been too freaked out with the responses I am getting from everyone else (outside of this website) lately.

Twice in the last month, I have brought up the peak oil end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it scenario to folks. Both occasions I thought I was being incredibly daring. On both occasions each person's reaction blew me out of the water. Both completely agreed. I didn't even have to go into details.

Not to mention: A person very close to me is currently looking for an escape hatch – as in, at this very moment, they are traveling the world searching for the best of possible life-rafts. And they don’t even think Peak Oil is that big of a deal. Technology will save us from a die-off. It’s the Perfect Storm that has them scared – the bubble of all freaking bubbles.

My worst fear is one day I'll mention Hubbert and everyone will know what I am talking about…

Ever have that fear?

[highlander]

Just about everyone I have mentioned PO to has had the typical responses

Lots of oil, just no refineries, usually due to environmentalists
oil companies gouging us
saudis gouging us
of course, Bush et al like the last one, as they just passed legislation allowing us to sue Saudi Arabia for "price fixing"
I heard some real live ones calling in to Tony Snow. They made references to "our oil" and $20-30/BBL Even Tony had to let them know that the foreign companies owned the oil and can sell it for what the market will bear.
When people who complain about high prices roll their eyes at term like peak oil, I just start talking supply and demand. They usually start understanding the issues, or at least pretend they do so I will shut up

[savethehumans]

NEVER SHUT UP!!

[Cool Hand Linc]

Highlander, Claudia posted this in the psychology thread feeling a little wacky

.........$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') think it's very important not to fight skepticism. Fighting skepticism is a very cultish thing to do and just reinforces people's wariness. Like, "Why don't you believe?!?!?! Let me barrage you with information until I force you to agree with me."

Most of the people I like and respect are natural skeptics -- it's a healthy reaction that says, basically, "you have not yet shown me convincing facts," or, "I haven't digested your information yet, give me time," or, "your tone of voice is warning me you're trying to manipulate me toward a desired conclusion, and that makes me suspicious of your motives."

It's not that I won't try to tell people about this stuff -- but I try to work with the skepticism, not against it. It's the people who are not skeptics at first who scare me, honestly.

[0mar]

Peak Oil is just the catalyst. It could be Peak Copper or Peak Agriculture that kills the economy.

Few people grasp that cessation of growth means GAME OVER. You can't make anything, do anything or cause anything to happen in our current model of economy once growth stops. "Doomers" are ones who probably get this fact and thus are doomers.

There are several technically viable technologies. What we lack are economic alternatives. The way our economy is set up prevents new directions and new ideas without return on investments. This is why capitalism must ultimately fail. Bad decisions that make profits will succeed over great ideas that don't produce a profit. It's sort of a wacky natural selection in which genes for cancer, sterility and inviable offspring are selected for.