[Taskforce_Unity]

Okay. Many people and many ideas here. So lets post a short timescale of events to come. What do you think that will come and more importantly When?

Here's a short piece of my idea, the most pessimistic one sofar ( prepare for the worst, hope for the best)

Peak - The end of 2006
American economic Collapse (thus worlds collapse) - 3 months before the peak
We manage for a while with oil production decline at around 1 to 2%. The Collapse sucks a lot but hey most people can manage a little bit thus short time of relative safety until 2008

BIGGG Worldwide depression worsening after 2008
Decline worsening to 3-4% until mid 2010

MAJOR collapse in 2010 --> EVeryone for himself around allmost the whole globe

And i won't go any further... don't really know what comes next

[linlithgowoil]

Peak end 2007. Worldwide 'soft patch' before then though - recessions and stagnation worldwide which will lessen oil demand - hiding the peak somewhat. Oil price staying in the $40-$60 range from now until the peak.

won't enter decline of the curve till later 2008-9. prices wont shoot up overnight - will stay in the $50-70 range until the markets actually see real physical trends indicating the decline - then, oil will go to $100+ - only then will we see real eceonomic depression setting in - around 2010 or early in the '10 decade.

we then have 10-20 years of worldwide economic problems and in the meantime, the developed nations will feverishly be building nuclear plants, clean coal tech, alternatives etc.

by 2030 we'll be back to 'business as usual', peak oil will have been solved, and the next problem will be peak 'something else'.

[clv101]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('linlithgowoil', 'b')y 2030 we'll be back to 'business as usual', peak oil will have been solved, and the next problem will be peak 'something else'.

[Jaymax]

One story - maybe delayed a year from those given. And probably nothing like the reality which will unfold, but what feels to me a likely scenario. Combining total disaster with humanities incredible ability to rise to any challenge, and invent, innovate at implement very quickly when needs dictate.

---

Dec 2005, crude at ~$80/bbl, but supply (and stockpiles) keep up - just. Traders and investers think Peak Oil overhyped, and as demand decreases during 1Q06, prices crash back to ~$40-$50/bbl.

Prices stay 'low' thru 3Q06, until the supply crunch really kicks in, prices rocket up to maybe ~$160/bbl, before dropping heavily again as the US economy begins to seriously falter. World governments seek to prop up the US economy short term, hoping for a breathing space as oil demand declines 1Q07 - barely avoiding total global collapse, worldwide political turmoil ensues.

Amongst other things, despite the pleading of all other countries, China (the state) and the USA (the privelidged elite) invest massivly in coal based power generation. Globally, research into nuclear fusion [environmentally good] and methyl hydrates [worse than coal?] is cranked up by an order of magnitude.

4Q07, as demand peaks, American economy collapses, causing global recession - but life continues. Many of the powerful in America still have ready access to energy, and do okay - it's the poor and middle classes who suffer most. The elite right try to launch a proper oil war, but the people finally refuse to have anything to do with it.

In Europe, life goes on, albeit depression style - the governments work together [finally] on massive efforts and investment to get fusion workable. Global burning of coal and timber increases, from state level down to individuals without power trying to keep warm. Atmospheric CO2 increases at rates beyond those previously concievable. Rural eastern europe slowly gains relative prosperity from growing huge amounts of energy crops, wheras rural US manages to survive (just) doing the same.

Next decade, Africa thrives (relativly). Middle East govenments in constant turmoil, further reducing oil supplies. Europe and Asia struggle on in misery. US starves, except for the few who 'have', who manage just fine. South America retreats into itself, but with it's oil reserves, ethanol experience, and generally low energy requirements, copes okay. New Zealand, after initially faltering, develops an extrremely efficient hydro-and-wind powered hydrogen energy infrastructure, the envy of the world.

2014 The US 'haves', rather than contributing to global fusion research, actually starts burning Methyl Hydrates and selling the energy to the 'have nots' - to the stunned disgust of the rest of the world.

2017 Europe and Japan both announce successful stable fusion reactors, and immediate plans to build multiple production sized facilities, and import the Kiwi research into how to build and deploy a hydrogen infrastructure.

2020, things start to come right, the US limps back into global relevance, and the world demands the end of US burning of coal and methyl hydrates, which takes another decade to achieve - as the US elite insists that the conversion to fusion must be done only once fusion generation has dropped to better the cost of the 'new' fossil fuel.

2040-2060, the effects of the massive increase in CO2 release between 2010 and 2030 trigger several ecological tipping points, resulting in global climate changes which wipe out 80% of the populating within 50 years.

[MD]

US continues to attempt world conquest through finance and military posturing, degrading eventually into conflicts enveloping wide regions.

Global economy collapses, oil consumption crashes to one fifth current consumption.

Desperate nations tip world war into global nuclear conflict.

World wide famine, disease, bioweapon plagues.

Nuclear winter ensues..

Bleak outlook, eh?

Edit for timeline..all by 2030 at the latest

[Jack]

Peak occurs by the end of 2005. Oil prices move up to $150 per barrel by the end of 2006.

After 2007, prices rise, causing demand destruction - particularly among low-wage workers in the U.S. The tourism and hospitality industries, along with airlines and car companies, face major trouble. U.S. cities face increased crime punctuated by riots.

Mexico and South America face economic failure, and a mass migration north begins. U.S. leadership reacts, sealing the borders. Cuban style regimes proliferate in Mexico, Central, and South America. The U.S. maintains order, but old-style freedoms are merely a memory.

Affluent Americans live reasonably well, but they enjoy fewer of the old options. Fresh fruit is rarer. The truly rich do fine.

China's economy fails as high fuel costs and America's deep recession hit. Unrest is kept in check by military force. India's economy also fails, with violence and wide-spread hunger. The rest of Asia begins to face hunger as crop yields decline, transportation costs escalate, and nations begin growing biofuel instead of crops for export.

Africa transitions to a series of Zimbabwe-style disasters.

The Middle East descends into chaos. The House of Saud falls, and the U.S. lacks the national will to even try to seize the oil fields. Iraq is a bleeding sore. Iran acquires nuclear weapons.

Europe copes.

By this time, America is screaming for technological solutions. Unfortunately, there aren't any - but this doesn't mean that massive sums of money, great piles of resources, and armies of scientists won't be squandered on the effort.

It's now 2008. The global recession is getting worse. Unemployment in the U.S. reaches 8%. The hotel industry is failing. The airlines have shrunk to a few flights on a few very profitable routes. The tickets are far too expensive for most people. Gasoline is $6 per gallon - and climbing.

Americans still have enough to eat - barely. The rest of the globe faces mass hunger - but not mass starvation (yet). Again, Europe copes - and those few Americans with enough money decide that relocation to Europe sounds good.

In 2010, we see the first global famine. There just isn't enough oil to support mechanized farming and the transportation of food around the world. Within Europe and the U.S., people have enough calories; but fresh fruits and vegetables out-of-season are a memory. U.S. unemployment is up to 12%.

By 2025, the great famines, along with their handmaidens disease and war, have killed 3 billion people. Much of the world is hungry. Forests have been decimated. The global economy no longer exists.

In 2050, the great dieoff will have ended. Humanity will be faced with the task of rebuilding, but with few resources and little energy.

Will humanity overcome the challenge? Perhaps. But not in the 21st century.

Too pessimistic? Possibly. That depends on when peak occurs and the rate of decline. But given the present market action of oil, the growth of population, and the lack of any effort to soften the landing...I think my numbers are reasonably accurate.

[PenultimateManStanding]

That sounds like a plausible guess, Jack. Each day the US uses enough oil to make a column 2500 feet high on an entire football field. The rest of the world uses about four more of them. Later this year the Saudi Ghawar could go the way of Oman with a sudden catastrophic hit to the world economies resulting. If this happens then your timeline might be too optimistic. Then again, Ghawar could hold out for a few more years, we don't know.

[PenultimateManStanding]

I think there is a very real possibilty of a total collapse occurring in a matter of months. Think of the world as a well-oiled race car cruising along at 200mph and suddenly the oil pan falls off. The engine seizes up and catches on fire. These big mighty governments are only possible because of the work people do to create wealth. Without oil, people can't create any more wealth. Everything falls apart so fast that even the doomers are in a state of shock.
http://www.newcolonist.com/ghawar.html

[khebab]

- Demand higher than supply since 2005, price becomes very volatile and slowly goes up as stockpiles go down
- End of 2006: Population pressure on their governments will force them to find a scapegoat or to take emergency actions in order to control demand: ban on SUV, restrictions on personal transportation, etc. Political pressure on oil companies and OPEC to find new oil: a short and desperate drilling frenzy will follow. Plans to quickly invest in alternative fuels are put into place.
- 2007: worldwide recession and high inflation
- after 2007: world recession temporary put a break on runaway oil demand
- after 2013: PO date, depletion is accelerating. Uncharted territories, not enough data.

[FoxV]

The only thing I'm predicting is a stock market crash this october (following the history of Black Mondays). Anything beyond that is just too confusing.

I find the world events today like watching some kind of Terry Gilliam movie (Brazil,Twelve Monkeys). Everywhere I look things don't make sense but everyone thinks things are just fine and perfectly normal.

How could anyone possible predict the plot to a movie where nonsense makes perfect sense

[MicroHydro]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jaymax', 'N')ew Zealand, after initially faltering, develops an extrremely efficient hydro-and-wind powered hydrogen energy infrastructure, the envy of the world.

[aldente]

Considering that the current overshoot on the basis of this non renewable resource called oil is a one time event in the history of this planet - would it be fair to state that it takes more than coincidence to "experience it" first of all but on top of it to know ahead of time "what causes is"?

How do you think the rest of humanity will react to it? Not only do people have no clue of what will bring their world to an end, there is no way to communicate it, even in the worst of scenarios.

I stick with Duncins 2012 scenario meanwhile , as much as I called him a "dark angel" in the past (and I guess I still do). What does Oldvai Gorge mean BTW? Here a good link:
[URL=http://faculty.vassar.edu/piketay/evolution/Olduvai_Gorge.html]The cradle

Gorge[/URL]

[ohanian]

This is what I posted on the 1st May 2005.

==========================

May: The peak has passed and yet nothing happened. Life goes on as per normal as the price of Oil dropped down to $52 per barrel. Nothing threatenning. And yet beneath the opaque surface of the global economic trading world, a huge current has shifted.

June: Oil has risen to $54 dollars a barrel and even at just low level of pricing the economic hardship is being felt first in countries which does not produce any significant amount of oil. Pakistan, the people are complaining about the unaffordability of the high price of oil. No one hears their cries. No one cares.

July: Oil has risen to $56 dollars a barrel. Business have been operating for 3 month with oil price above $50 dollars a barrel. Unable to continue at this rate, Business is starting to put up prices to reflect the new reality. Some people started to notice the lack of profit growth in some companies.

August: Oil has risen to $58 dollars a barrel. Consumer hit by 4 month of "high" oil prices at the pump has started to moderate their spending patterns. Some business has notice this and is starting to tighten their belts by scheduling budget cuts.

September: Oil has risen to $60 dollars a barrel. Consumer slowdown is now noticed by the major businesses. House prices has started to drop. The share market has failed to grow at the normal rate. Some people is starting to sell their share holdings.

October: Oil has risen to $63 dollars a barrel. A massive drop in the share markets. Share indecies down 15% from May. The economic slow down has started in a big way. House prices drop 10% from peak house price. Countries are battering down for the recession.

November: Oil has remain at $64 dollars a barrel. Rising inflation has mean that people now has even less money to spend on buying oil at the pump because the prices of everyday items has risen. Jobless rate started to climb. Factories and businesses refuse to hire new personnel. Talks of downsizing occurs. Everyone is fearful of their job security.
House prices has collapsed as people rufuse to commit to buying a new home. House prices down 20% from peak.

December: Oil has remain at $65 dollars a barrel. Business has started firing people. A bleak Christmas for many. House prices down 22% from peak.

January 2006: Oil has remain at $66 dollars a barrel. Nothing happen in the new year. Lots of small luxury business declares bankruptcy. The luxury market has collapsed (except for the top end). House prices down 25% from peak. People are VERY ANGRY.

[Macsporan]

Very good scenarios. A small point. The WTO and the World Bank have turned the 3rd World into one giant plantation.

50-80% of the good agricultural land is set aside for the growing of cash crops. That is why so many people are hungry and dying of malnutrition.

It is this sector, run for the benefit of the local elites and the corporations, that uses all the oil.

If the global economy collapses the peasant farmers who grow most of the food will be at liberty to do so on a scale not seen before.

They will not starve, on the contary they'll be doing better than ever before.

Globalisation and international trade has been an almost unmitigated curse in the 3rd world.

They'll be much better off without it.

In the post PO world, just like in the Kingdom of God, the first shall be last and the last shall be first.

Consider moving to Cuba, or Columbia.

[bobbyald]

This is scenario 1 of 7,654,788,921 possibles

Q4 2005 - Oil remains in its current trading range. No real change in the economic environment.

2006/7 – New supplies come on-line just as $55 oil starts to slow the world economy. The price of oil recedes to $40. Peak oil hits towards the end of 2007 but almost no one notices. Peak oil is even less of a media topic than it is now. Some other crisis gets most of the headlines. Stock markets drift lower. Gold at $500.

2008 - Tensions continue to build in the Gulf as Middle Eastern states are blamed for not pumping enough oil – prices strengthen to $62. The US is invited into S.A. as peace keepers following the death of the King. Inflation up to 5.2%, unemployment begins to increase as the housing bubble finally pops. My wife once again tells me to shut up about Peak Oil.

2009 – World oil depletion only at 1%. Still PO is not a media issue. The US accuses Iran, Venezuela & others of favouring China and says that further acts of economic aggression will be regarded as an act of war. The US initiates a huge alternative energy initiative (too late) following oils move to $80. The draft is introduced for low risk peace keeping duties only. Blackouts across the world are now more common. Colin Campbell is laughed of an Economic Affairs program for suggesting that oil peaked in 2007.

2010 – The Fed expands the money supply and bails out failing banks, airlines and other “key” industries. US President calls for Americans to spend their way out of recession (What?). Inflation now exceeds 10%. Gold at $580. Oil flirts with $100. The US dollar is depreciating fast. Chinese and Japanese economies are now in big trouble.

2011 – Oil back down to as low as $80 as the global economic crisis kicks in destroying demand (and lives). Peak Oil – what’s that? “Terrorists” attack pipelines and tankers in a massive 9/11 type operation. The US blames Iran and key installations are bombed. Iran replies by closing the Strait of Hormuz. Oil quadruples to $400 and gold soars to $1,800. Stock markets across the world fall 43% in one day. Shares in “Cycles R us” buck the trend.

2012 – A “mystery” virus spreads rapidly out of China. Asians seem to be affected more than the West. Serious power failures in Indonesia, South Africa, Russia and China last months. Canadian Oil Sands production is shut down due lack of fresh water and N.G. Huge famines in Africa and China kill millions. The most watched US T.V. program is celebrity basket weaving.

2013 – The US secures its position in the Middle East and vows to protect the “Union of free oil producing states” – OPEC is declared dead. The Australian government calls an emergency UN resolution covering the rationing of declining oil supplies. A major breakthrough is achieved in nuclear fusion in Europe, fusion reactors are planned for 2025. Europe abandons the Euro. The UK Prime Minister googles “Peak Oil” against the advice of senior economists.

2014 – A freak severe winter cripples Europe. Millions die as gas and electrical networks fail. Record temperatures around the world cause crops to fail. Suburbia is dead as millions begin to move out of the cities – riots are common place. People queue to join the military as social security fails. Unemployment reaches 19%. The US government’s report on global warming is expected soon.

2015 – As Greenland’s glacier melts an alien space ship is found buried in the ice. The advanced technology that it contains allows the world to solve its energy problems, slowly and humanly the world’s population is reduced, pollution is removed from the world’s oceans and the air is cleaned.

The US military claimed this is the start of an alien invasion and energy must be diverted from feeding the world into defending the earth …………...

Please discuss at PeakAlienEnergy.com

(Sorry it just got too depressing and I’m only half way through).

[Wildwell]

2005 Several people take overdoses after reading this thread.
2009/10 As linlithgowoil with a later PO date.

[PenultimateManStanding]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... E4j03VlhPw

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')
Oil Jumps to Record $58.60 as Demand May Outpace Production

June 17 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil in New York surged to a record $58.60 a barrel on signs that producers will struggle to meet growing fuel demand during the second half of the year.

``There is no question that the market is going to $60,'' said Kyle Cooper, an analyst with Citigroup Inc. in Houston. ``There is a lot of fear and hype about the possibility of us running out of oil, and it has stuck.''

[Omnitir]

By 2010 PO hits and most of the previously posted predictions come true.

Things a looking very grim for the 21st century. The beginnings of devastating war break out early next decade.

… But then nature makes our manufactured concerns look petty by destroying 99% of life on Earth with a massive asteroid collision that is statistically millions of year’s overdue. Within days all large life forms including humans have gone the way of the dinosaurs.



… So don’t worry about the future and make the most of the present. Nothing lasts forever.

[CarlinsDarlin]

I don't even know what to say to all these predictions, except ...
Boy I hope the garden does well this year...
K

[Rickenbacker]

I personally think the Bush administration are well aware of the issue and have some sort of emergency plan, no doubt one that will involve emergency measures greatly increasing their power, possibly suspending elections etc.
As such I doubt they would take the risk of hoping to win another election by foul means or fair, and we will see the big kick off (the initiation of the US' plan) before the end of this administration.
As I believe the next pearl harbour/911 will simple be the general chaos caused by a recession, they may attempt to accelerate the situation, no doubt blaming some external cause (global warming, terrorists, china, the UN etc.) to prevent the blame landing at their feet, and to convinve the population, who will be eager for a solution, that only they have the answer, probably giving them a pretext for some king of martial law/military action.