[FatherOfTwo]

We sorely need some definitions. Use this thread to post your suggestions and then I’ll pull out up to the 10 best and we can vote in a separate thread (polls only allow 10 options… moderators can feel free to take this over). Of course, a time scale is necessary. Since the ASPO estimate is currently forecasting a peak in 2007/2008, let’s hold this time scale to the next 20 years.

Here are some definitions I’ve found for hard-landing

Economists define it as:
When the economy goes directly from a period of expansion to a recession. This might happen if a government or monetary authority is more restrictive in its fiscal or monetary policy than what is appropriate for the economy. opposite of soft landing.

Space scientists (airline pilots?) might define it as:
The landing of a craft such that it is unable to continue operations.

I would define it as:
A major downturn in the production of oil which directly leads to severe recessions or depressions. There is a significant drop in the standard of living, costs of living rise dramatically and unemployment reaches never before seen highs. People are forced to cut out all non-essential goods and services from their lives. Crime increases dramatically but there is no major disorder. Local wars become prevalent, but not severe.

[nero]

My definition:

A hard landing is any peak oil scenario where the rule of law, government and the social safety net breaks down but where some order is maintained on a local level that allows for the continuation of a civil society that includes schools, doctors and the maintenance of critical public infrastructure.

[FatherOfTwo]

Hmm, only two posts for hard landing?? Come on people, contribute!

Based on the feedback for soft landing, I’m going to modify my hard landing proposal

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') major downturn in the production of oil which directly leads to severe recessions or depressions. There is a significant drop in the standard of living, costs of living rise dramatically and unemployment reaches never before seen highs. People are forced to cut out all non-essential goods and services from their lives. The environment is much worse off as alternates such as coal rapidly diminish air quality and global warming is bordering on being out of control. Crime increases dramatically but there is no major disorder. Local wars become prevalent, but not severe, and no nuclear wars are started.

[FatherOfTwo]

After thinking about this more the definitions might need to be all encompassing. I’m posting this to all 3 threads.

Do we agree that the definition should include impacts on:

Vital services (police, health, fire, courts, food production)
Vital infrastructure (transportation, roads, electricity, water etc.)
Economic conditions (unemployment, interest rates, trade, standard of living, cost of living)
Environment conditions (air quality, water quality, global warming, species decline)
Local Social conditions (crime levels, poverty/homelessness)
Global Social conditions (wars, trade disputes, population levels)

Am I missing anything?

[FatherOfTwo]

And one other: total energy available!

[FatherOfTwo]

Definitions:
Vital services (police, health, fire, courts, food production)
Vital infrastructure (transportation, roads, electricity, water etc.)
Economic conditions (unemployment, interest rates, trade, standard of living, cost of living)
Environment conditions (air quality, water quality, global warming, species decline)
Local Social conditions (crime levels, poverty/homelessness)
Global Social conditions (wars, trade disputes, population levels)


HARD LANDING
Energy impacts A severe drop in total available energy. There is a significant, instantaneous drop in oil production and alternates are pursued full tilt, but they are not able to be ramped up on quickly enough.
Global social conditions Global reactions are strained and uncooperative. Local wars, but no global or nuclear wars. Population levels start dropping due to major famine and disease in the poorest countries.
Local social conditions Crime, poverty and homelessness see massive increases but there is no major, continuing disorder.
Vital services Are reduced but basics are maintained albeit with major interruptions.
Vital infrastructure Essential maintenance is maintained but little new infrastructure is built.
Economic conditions Economic activities are severely strained and prolonged deep recessions or depressions are encountered. There is a significant drop in the standard of living, a substantial increase in the cost of living, and unemployment reaches never before seen highs. People are forced to cut out most non-essential goods and services from their lives. Most economic trade quickly becomes local. Personal transportation is all but eliminated except for the wealthy.
Environment conditions The environment is much worse off as alternates such as coal rapidly diminish air quality and global warming is bordering on being out of control.

In general, most people and society are not able to adjust very well. Environmental conditions are boarding on a catastrophe.

[gg3]

Here's my general case; the following is excerpted from my post in the soft landings topic where I compared four scenarios:

"Hard landing: Some of the core functions of civilization are maintained. More of the core functions are damaged. Some of the damaged functions can be restored within a single generation. The remaining damaged functions can be restored within three generations (90 years; the timespan of "living memory" in a society)."

For my working definition of civilization and other relevant variables, see also the original post.

The above generalization covers most of the specifics that folks have posted in this topic thus far.