[jupiter422]

I was entering data, on "peak oil" on another site called www.ls2.com the forum I was in, is basically the opposite of peak oil and I got called an idiot and all kinds of things ,this was the best response I got .People tend to think we will figure out some magical solution--------anyhow check out what he wrote- it's not all bad I just believe things will be quite a bit more bumpy


(Quote:)
Originally posted by Imperator
I know several of you have relatives in the oil business, and almost all of us are suburbia livin', gasoline burnin' mofos...

Who believes in the "Peak Oil" model? Not to be a paranoid conspiracy theorist, but I've been reading up on this interesting topic lately.

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net
http://peakoil.com

Everyone has their own ideas, and some of them are on the extreme end of things, but it's interesting to say the least.

I'm no expert, but to me, "Peak Oil" needs to be further defined as discovered, light sweet crude extracted using inexpensive primary and secondary recovery. I have no idea what primary recovery yields, but I'm sure it's probably less than 25% of the reservior. The oil remaining requires more expensive means of secondary recovery, involving anything from water pumping to CO2 floods, or some other undiscovered means. Adjusted for inflation, 1999 was one of the best years for cheap oil, but those days are probably long gone. Unless we suffer a severe supply disruption (post-recovery), I don't think the economic impact will be as heavy or sudden as some predict. I've got data on the non-OPEC producing countries, but does anyone have hard facts on the production capacity of the Saudis? How does OPEC manage to pull an extra 1Mbpd? And what about Canadia selling their new-found reserves to China?


I'm too jet-lagged to get into a deep discussion here, but no I don't believe global oil production (or better yet, hydrocarbon production) will peak in the next five years as per some of that discussion. I wouldn't even go as far as to say that proved global reserves will peak in the next 5 years (that includes undeveloped, but defined and economically viable in-ground volumes).

I do not believe civilization will be "rocked" into a "post-industrial stone age" once we do pass the production peak either. Humans are very crafty creatures and given that the slowing of production will be both obvious and gradual... I believe we'll have plenty of time to adjust. No reasonable person in our industry contends that hydrocarbons will last forever, but no reasonable person in our industry pretends to know when we'll run out either. It's simply not a quantifiable figure.

The current crude oil price environment isn't related to a "production peak" by the way. It's related to a rather sudden demand spike. Spikes, by nature, cause weird market conditions, but aren't necessarily indicative of new market thresholds. It is possible that the industry may not be able to outpace demand in the future (at least at say a normalized $30 oil), but I don't think that's likely. I think demand growth will likely stabilize at some point in the near future. I'd guess at a level closer to $40 though... and perhaps little higher.

Just a couple points regarding crude oil pricing trends... the late 70's were an artificially induced production shortage and really had nothing to do with true global producing ability (given time for stabilization at least). 1998/1999's low crude prices were strictly related to a short-lived market demand collapse (reverse spike if you will) and thus again not related to global producing ability.

Anyway, all I'm saying is that while we will encounter a peak at some point, I don't believe any immediate destruction to modern civilization will occur. I rather doubt the human race will truely respond to the eventual problem until there is proof that the downturn will occur (or has occurred) in their lifetime.

You can probably go to OPEC's official website and pull production capacity figures, but I rather doubt you will find ANYTHING concrete on this subject. In theory, OPEC nations "manage" their production levels and simply don't produce all of their fields to reasonable capacity... hence their ability to claim "excess capacity".

Crude is a global commodity so I woudn't get concerned about some region selling more of their new reserves to certain market sectors. It has the same effect in reality... that being a reduction in global demand gap.

Also, CO2 floods are considered tertiary recovery methods rather than secondary btw. Just something to keep in mind if you cite those methods on any technical sites out there. And yes typically, primary production only yields 15-25% recoveries at best.

[jupiter422]

Everyone else on the site was totally rejecting the idea, one guy said ,"next I would be saying we are gonna run out of water." It's a shame that most people just don't get it or won't open there mind enough to except detailed evidence and facts.It's so freakin simple.

[jupiter422]

I messed up when i pasted the first post -sorry for the confusion and a stupid thread.My point was that when you go to a random website and start talking peak oil people go nuts on you. this guy actually wasn't too bad ,except he believes it will be a slow and fairly smooth transition.which i believe in the worst case scenario.I believe that peak oil will totally be insane ,even worse than we can describe in these forums.but only time will tell .



on a positive note-
On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone is zero.