[stu]

Dear BIGG

My name is Stu. I find out about Peak Oil last summer and it has gone and turned my world upside down. I now view the world in a totally different light. I now accept that the human race faces some very big challenges ahead and I do believe that there is a very strong chance of chaos ahead.

The geologists say that we have discovered most of the worlds oil and this is reflected in the worrying rate of discovery that shows a peak in the 1960's. Also most of them seem to be predicting a peak in the next decade or so. This freaks me out a bit and I know that most people would just expect us to be able to switch to some other form of energy.

This is where you come in.

I have noticed that ever since you arrived on this forum you have been championing alternative energy sources. You have been a strong defender in the belief that a lot of people on this site are doomers and if you can just help them to understand the potential of alternative energies then everything will be allright. You have even had the balls to take on two of the forums resident experts in Devil and Montequest. In my opinion you have to be very brave or very stupid to do this. But seeing as you constantly do it then I will give you the benefit of the doubt.

What I was hoping you could do would be to provide me with a basic understanding of how we are to be saved by using alternative energy sources. Unfortunately I know little on this subject and have decided to turn to you in the hope of bringing some light into the otherwise dark implications of Peak Oil.

I am aware that you have provided many links stories on alternative energy but I thought that seeing as you know so much about all of these topics you won't need to provide links because you already have the knowledge in your head and surely that will suffice. Also I have an MTV addled attention span and think that instead of trawling the many links you have provided you can just give me the basic outline. All I am asking for is a basic analysis of how a world that is reliant on hydrocarbons to provide it with transportation, fertiliser, pesticide, electricity and plastic, can be changed to a world that is run on alternative sources.

This of course means that you will be showing me some important opinions that you have which I am also interested in.

A) When you think PO will occur?

B) How much time we will have to switch the world over to these new sources?

C) How each alternative energy source will replace each aspect of hydrocarbon reliance?

Remember Bigg....It does not have to be the equivalent of an essay. Just the basic and main points. And reffering me to your previous posts does not count because I am sure that you will not need to do it as, like most experts, you already have the knowledge at hand. I would also be very interested in your credentials as I like to know how qualified you are.

I look forward to receiving your response.

Yours faithfully

Stu.
(A worried, but determined, Peak Oiler)

[PenultimateManStanding]

Ditto for that other one - the folk singer. There isn't much that you can really expect here, stu. Those guys just assume that if alternatives are but a tiny fraction of current energy uses, that's no problem. When the time comes we'll just ramp it up. Blind faith is all it is; behind the bluster lies fear, trapped and denied. The emotional burden will be severe for them when TSHTF, but what the hell, it will be severe for us too, regardless of our current acceptance.

[JohnDenver]

stu and PMS,
I'll take up your challenge, and try to be as brief as possible.

A) When you think PO will occur?
My guess: some time in the next 15 years, probably sooner rather than later.

B) How much time we will have to switch the world over to these new sources?
The main "alternative" sources of energy which will substitute for oil are very familiar: natural gas, nuclear, coal, non-conventional oil and conservation. Newer alternatives like ethanol, biodiesel, solar, wind, tides, geothermal and hot dry rock will play a lesser but important role. The "switch" will occur over a period of decades, as oil depletes and alternatives grow to match and eventually overcome that depletion.

C) How each alternative energy source will replace each aspect of hydrocarbon reliance?
This is a complex subject, but I'll give you the short answer. The solution to peak oil is the electrical grid. As the decades pass and fossil fuels become more scarce, transportation will be increasingly powered by nuclear generated electricity and fuels. Renewable sources of liquid fuel (like biodiesel) may still be used for some niche applications.
Fossil fuels (oil, gas, coal and non-conventional oil) will remain the primary source of transport energy in my lifetime. In the decades after that, nuclear energy will become dominant. This should take us out to about 100 years in the future, at which time new sources of energy (like fusion, space mirrors, lunar space power, solar power satellites) will take the baton from nuclear, and usher in an era of totally clean, cheap energy.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hose guys just assume that if alternatives are but a tiny fraction of current energy uses, that's no problem. When the time comes we'll just ramp it up.

[stu]

Thanks for the response JD.

How do you see Leibigs Law in this process?

Surely there is a limit to the carrying capacity of the planet. Do you envision a die-off and if so at what level?

I personally can't see a peaceful switch taking place.

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'T')he alternatives of oil are not a tiny fraction of the current energy pie. As of 2002, coal, gas, nuclear and renewable accounted for about 61% of total U.S. energy consumption. All of those alternatives will grow in response to peak oil. And they each don't need to grow much to offset an oil decline of 3%. Modest 2% growth of each alternative would be more than sufficient.

[PenultimateManStanding]

Good responses which do persuade me that I'm wrong on the psychological aspect, JD. Now that 61% you mentioned for non-petroleum energy usage in 2002 was suprising to me. Of course natural gas is in decline in the US and the LNG infrastructure is mostly yet to be built so if the shortages should happen sooner rather than later (say due to demand growth above the supply) there won't be any relief from that side. Even so, I was startled to hear that oil was a mere 39% total energy in 2002. That would seem to give some wiggle room for a non-doomer outcome. Major trouble no doubt, but survivable.

[Licho]

Stu:
Population will stabilize naturally at 9billions (UN estimate), but we might never go so far. With more expensive food, raging AIDS and increased awarness of contraceptives population can stabilize at lower number.

After pop. peak it will likely decline slowly to some other number, we cannot predict now.
But "native" population is already declining in developed countries (except USA). This process will likely by repeated in other parts of world, once they reach certain economic/cultural level.

Doly:
coal and natural gas can actually be used for transportation on large scale.
You can make diesel from coal (very old process used during WW2) and you can burn natural gas in your benzine engines after only slight modification (many people use it already, because it's far cheaper, conversion costs (about $600 here) pay back within few months..)
Personal transporation will be also gradually replaced by cheaper mass transportation, some new cars will be electric, engines will be more efficient and smaller and part of traveling will be obsolete (like going to work every day - many will be able to work from home)

[Licho]

If you are worried about energy, and it's finitness, then realize this:

- in 1l (or barrel, doesnt matter of sea water, there is about 300l equivalent of oil as useable energy, if water is used in nuclear fusion
(first real fusion reactor - ITER is currently being built as an international project). Ordinary sea water is 300x denser energy source, than oil..
And if want to harvest this resource, we wont even lose water! We will only extract heavy water from it (tiny fraction), and ordinary water from this process can be be used as drinking water, because process of extracting heavy water includes boiling/desalinization

- total volume of usefull solar energy arriving at Earth (at ground level) is about 25 000 times more than total energy use by whole civilization.
Even if we could tap only 1% of this, we could still power 250 our civilizations just from solar energy..

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('stu', 'H')ow do you see Leibigs Law in this process?