[vegasmade]

Is there another solution or is war the only option? Can we all just get along? Sans crystal ball, an allout slugfest seems the direction of current events. The multitude of propoganda and posturing, by all players on the world stage, seems to lead to the ugly scenario. And if this all does point that direction, do we actually think we can win.
As the undeveloped world stands united in their desire for progress, will they allow us to curtail any hopes of a better life? At this time, figure everything east of Iran or south of the med isn't going to line up behind us. By now they have to believe we'd just subjugate them to third class living or worse. I guess adding pretty much everything south of Arizona wouldn't be a strech either. We've already subjugated them!
With Chinese investment both north and south of our borders, even the Monroe Doctrine is looking dated. China's also heavily invested in Iran, oil rich Africa, and India. Also, they've been reported as eyeballing Siberian and Caspian resources. And to add insult to injury, China is buying their way in. I call it commie-capitalism.
So that leaves us who? A reluctant mainland Europe? A mangy, underfed Russian bear?
That gives at least a 5 to 1 population advantage to them. Not to mention resolve. How long will they allow us to pick them off one by one (based of course on desired resources) before they just say no. And if they do say it, can we not use our ace? Not to say there aren't other aces in the deck, China's got one, India does too. Ours may be bigger, but size doesn't matter in a MAD MAD world.
Just think about it, even if a first strike prevents us from taking serious damage, will an obliterated planet sustain us. The MAD world gets MADder. I'd chose Walden Pond long before this MAD scenario, would you?
In writng this I had a dangerous thought. Is the enemy at the gate? Or is he standing next to us? What can we do here? And do we have the resolve? I tend to think not, but Americans are the wild card. What can we, no, what will we do? To what extreme will we go?
Or maybe the c word (it rymes with poo) isn't at all necessary. It's time for an answer to these questions, and we all must ask them, answer them, and commit to those answers now, while there's a choice to be made.

[Tanada]

I think it is bloody clear that in a nuclear armed world nobody can get away with invading too much oil territory, the other nuclear weapons states will not allow it.

Hell all the Chineese really need to do is set off 6 high altitude EMP warhead over the continental USA, when 95% of vehicals die from computer failure our oil demand disspears instantly. Doesn't matter how tough our military is, we would need 5 years if we were lucky and many more otherwise to replace the burned out components to make our systems run again.

[GD]

Very good post, it's true that if we don't get cooperating big time within the next few years, then a fight for what's left could well be on the cards.

I think the Nuclear option will remain a deterrent and any further oil war action would well be coups (failed in Venezuela, we'll see for Iran). The reasons I think this 1) too many countries now have the bomb (all the major energy users at least), and 2) our economies are so intertwined that it would be like cutting your own throat anyway.

IMO I think what we will see is the world's elite carve up the remaining pie for themselves, while the rest of us have to fight for any crumbs off the table.

We most definitely need to rethink the way we do business and politics, starting with reclaiming our own "democracies". (One of the only things I have found so far that could help is the International Simultaneous Policy, which I posted about on this thread. So far nobody has come back saying whether they thinks it's good or not.)

[Jdelagado]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vegasmade', 'I')s there another solution or is war the only option? Can we all just get along? Sans crystal ball, an allout slugfest seems the direction of current events. The multitude of propoganda and posturing, by all players on the world stage, seems to lead to the ugly scenario. And if this all does point that direction, do we actually think we can win.
As the undeveloped world stands united in their desire for progress, will they allow us to curtail any hopes of a better life? At this time, figure everything east of Iran or south of the med isn't going to line up behind us. By now they have to believe we'd just subjugate them to third class living or worse. I guess adding pretty much everything south of Arizona wouldn't be a strech either. We've already subjugated them!
With Chinese investment both north and south of our borders, even the Monroe Doctrine is looking dated. China's also heavily invested in Iran, oil rich Africa, and India. Also, they've been reported as eyeballing Siberian and Caspian resources. And to add insult to injury, China is buying their way in. I call it commie-capitalism.
So that leaves us who? A reluctant mainland Europe? A mangy, underfed Russian bear?
That gives at least a 5 to 1 population advantage to them. Not to mention resolve. How long will they allow us to pick them off one by one (based of course on desired resources) before they just say no. And if they do say it, can we not use our ace? Not to say there aren't other aces in the deck, China's got one, India does too. Ours may be bigger, but size doesn't matter in a MAD MAD world.
Just think about it, even if a first strike prevents us from taking serious damage, will an obliterated planet sustain us. The MAD world gets MADder. I'd chose Walden Pond long before this MAD scenario, would you?
In writng this I had a dangerous thought. Is the enemy at the gate? Or is he standing next to us? What can we do here? And do we have the resolve? I tend to think not, but Americans are the wild card. What can we, no, what will we do? To what extreme will we go?
Or maybe the c word (it rymes with poo) isn't at all necessary. It's time for an answer to these questions, and we all must ask them, answer them, and commit to those answers now, while there's a choice to be made.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GD', 'V')ery good post, it's true that if we don't get cooperating big time within the next few years, then a fight for what's left could well be on the cards.

I think the Nuclear option will remain a deterrent and any further oil war action would well be coups (failed in Venezuela, we'll see for Iran). The reasons I think this 1) too many countries now have the bomb (all the major energy users at least), and 2) our economies are so intertwined that it would be like cutting your own throat anyway.

IMO I think what we will see is the world's elite carve up the remaining pie for themselves, while the rest of us have to fight for any crumbs off the table.

[vegasmade]

How quickly we forget our missle defense shield and pre-emption policy. When the former becomes active, the latter will continue unabated. Coincidence, maybe. I doubt any of the current state of events haven't been preplanned and thoroughly calculated. Remember, the general public is at least 15+ years behind military developments. (i.e. F117, SR72, U2) I personally said 'pipe dream' when a missle shield was proposed. But would they really bring it up if it wasn't near deployment? Why play their hand early? The fact is, we know where every ICBM on earth is and have a plan to neutralize all. And under our doctrine of pre-emption, they could justify doing it.
Remember Tanada, even the poorest American is an elite compared to the developing world. Without military supremecy, we become the bullseye. You're right, stopping us dead would open lots of room for everyone else to grow. All the more reason for our leaders to stop at nothing to remain on top.
JDelgado is also right on. The information age has provided access for more dissemination of information. The difference IMO, is that the PO reality has upped the ante considerably. Combined with a weakened dollar, a teetering economy, and the emergence of another world power, the risk factor is rising exponentially. As has been noted elsewhere, any interupption of supply could drive the price per barrel into the stratosphere. If that happens, the house of cards could fall, bearing the injustice/inequality of global capitalism for all to see. Once again, making the US a large target.
I'm not trying to speak out against anyone's ideas, but we need to see this in the broadest terms possible. Our debt based society has a precedence for large crashes, it's reached this level of debt on the back of cheap energy, and ultimately, it simply can't go on indefinately. True, most developed nations are in this boat together, but I'm not worried about France or the UK attacking. It's the five billion other people that have the incentive. Two billion of which, have zero current energy use. Another two billion (China and India), are so damn thirsty they're gonna have to act. The balance represents the exploited masses who must be tired of being kept under our thumb. I can see myself growing tired of stiching Nikes all day, but not being able to afford them. And faced with the proposition of seeing my children in the same circumstances, what options do I have. Keep in mind, wars have been fought over less.