[TAHOE VALLEY LINES]

USA cannot get thru the Oil Interregnum on the cheap, either politically or thru patchwork technofix. Trillions needed require new funding mechanisms, like ENERGY INDEPENDENCE Bonds, modelled after WWII War Bonds & Liberty Bonds. Cars for everyone at puberty- not!

Prototype for sustainable, energy independent economy closer to 1950's America, than Star Trek. Maybe more gadgets, but heavy lifting still done by trains, just more of them, linked to renewables energy source and electric traction, more than Diesel. New rail corridors will be needed, like US50 TransSierra, and US95 in the East. Linked to stand alone renewables, grid-connected.

Agriculture, not NAFTA freight, will get first call on Diesel fuel. Trucks will revert to predominately pick-up & delivery mode. Rails get closer to point of origin, with vastly expanded warehousing. Corner grocery & general stores come back, thanks to elimination of inventory tax and "Just-In-Time" fuel gobbling daily or more, truck delivery. Warehousing, more localised, trades efficiencies of scale for proximity to end users, and makes distribution a more difficult get in post 911DAY logistics. Old city maps help with re-orienting thinking back to the future.

Delay in implementation unwise; watch Mexico as miner's canary for energy, as their demand soon blots out ability to export. Worse, watch as countries rethink the wisdom, one by one, of selling off their energy endowment. We are already in energy overshoot; we cannot replace fossils with renewables or conservation or technopatch and maintain per/capita energy use. Political sweet talk is no substitute for drastic change in transport policy- no amount of drilling or military invasion will change the eventual outcome. Soften the landing.

ENERGY INDEPENDENCE BONDS should fund ways to wean us off of the private vehicle syndrome, not subsidize ways to perpetuate the auto economy. I have a car too, folks. Difference is, I began smelling a rat when we were told, about 40 years ago, that it was good for the USA to import oil, good for world trade, the farmers, and the Defense Department, too! Several $trillions later, for the full military and economic costs of 50 years of unbalanced transport policy, we are nearing the day of reckoning. Talk to your elected rep about The Bonds. If you don't want to bother with it, delegate the job to a son or daughter, nephew or niece; they probably have greater incentive, in any event. Planners: Dig out the old Thompson Bros. maps for track plans.

[Cool Hand Linc]

You see the big picture. We need funding. I like the taxation of the oil enduser myself. Tax so much that we all choke on it. Then back off some. You are right about what will happen as long as the decline is gradual! Trains more trucks less. Everybody will be looking at effeciency of everything!

I just hope the decline is gradual!

[dmtu]

Interesting, haven't really thought about rail expansion.

[Mr. Greenstreet]

The discussion about trains is very interesting, for as oil becomes dearer with associated shortages, train transportation run on electricity generated from different energy sources will become crucial to maintain any economy. Furthermore, the transition from abundant and cheap oil to much less abundant and dearer oil will be accompanied by a change in lifestyle for nearly everybody. It is difficult to imagine the present patterns of production / consumption in an era of renewable energies and dearer oil. Basically, the world is facing a shift in patterns of civilisation. The question of energy and its subsequent solution will dictate new types of civilisations.

[Aaron]

And what do trains run on? Forget the movie version of yester year with tough looking guys in overalls shoveling coal into the furnace. Trains run on diesel fuel.

Unless you propose to build all new engine cars which run on... what?

[pip]

What's wrong with coal fired locomotives? The technology is already there. Electricity will be pretty dear too and the lines to operate an electric locomotive would have to be built.

[Pops]

Interesting.

One thing to remember is that there will probably be FAR fewer things being shipped. All that cheap plastic garbage from overseas will eventually become very expensive garbage. As you say, more like the fifties than the Jetsons.

There are huge warehouses in my general vicinity (center of CA’s central valley) serving the bay area and central valley. They are served by rail with local delivery (up to 150 miles?) made by truck.

Along the Santa Fe tracks all down the valley are old brick warehouses every 10 miles or so, some still used, some abandoned, some long since gone. Small towns grew up around them (promoted by and land purchased from the railroad conveniently). Goods not available locally were delivered by rail. Excess local production was shipped out, originally wheat, then with irrigation and cold cars - fruits and vegetables. I can see a time when those small towns might come back to life and be served by rail.

I would guess that it would be a long time, however, before we get back to whistle stop trains. Today rails are used primarily to ship Happy Meal prizes and baby lettuce 1,000s of miles across the country.

That is, if you can find a way to power the trains. Coal fired I guess. I can’t imagine electrified 3rd rails criss-crossing the country, or the maintenance on overhead lines. Of course there are probably other solutions.

Pops

[rowante]

Yes trains run on diesel but they are many times more efficient with fuel for freight shifting. Think about all the start-stops trucks on the road have to do. IMO fuel will be heavily rationed for private users, and reserved for industry to keep the economy (read - stagflation) running. America will regret ripping up all that rail...

...btw the Industrialist I mentioned in another thread turns out to own freight rail networks in Australia. Smart guy.