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China or the U.S.: which will be the last nation standing?

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China or the U.S.: which will be the last nation standing?

Unread postby KevO » Thu 04 Feb 2010, 05:29:56

FROM HEINBERG
http://www.energybulletin.net/node/51425
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Re: China or the U.S.: which will be the last nation standing?

Unread postby KevO » Thu 04 Feb 2010, 05:31:30

Is it me or are things hotting up and at an accelerating rate?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')hina has hit back at the US a day after President Barack Obama promised to take a tougher line with Beijing over currency and trade.
Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Ma Zhaoxu said the value of the Chinese yuan was not the main reason for the country's trade surplus with the US.
Mr Obama vowed to ensure countries were not giving their currencies an unfair advantage against the dollar.
Ties between the US and China have been strained over an arms deal with Taiwan.
Tensions have also risen over reports of Chinese cyber attacks on US-run websites and a planned visit to the US by the Dalai Lama.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/8497492.stm
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Re: China or the U.S.: which will be the last nation standing?

Unread postby gollum » Thu 04 Feb 2010, 08:21:28

I think so do, I expect at the minimum a "cold war" situation between China and the US in this decade, and maybe a lot worse.
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Re: China or the U.S.: which will be the last nation standing?

Unread postby mos6507 » Thu 04 Feb 2010, 11:01:53

Is it just me or has Heinberg's rhetoric become increasingly bitter and strident since Nopenhagen?

The fatalistic tone of this article is in contrast to the open letter to Obama email i got recently.

It seems like Heinberg is torn between still wanting to push for macro solutions and throwing in the towel and heckling from the sidelines.
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Re: China or the U.S.: which will be the last nation standing?

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Thu 04 Feb 2010, 11:18:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'I')s it just me or has Heinberg's rhetoric become increasingly bitter and strident since Nopenhagen?

The fatalistic tone of this article is in contrast to the open letter to Obama email i got recently.

It seems like Heinberg is torn between still wanting to push for macro solutions and throwing in the towel and heckling from the sidelines.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heinberg', 'I')ncreasingly I am forced to conclude that the object of the game that world leaders are actually playing is not to avoid collapse; it's simply to postpone it a while so as to be the last nation to go down, so yours can have the chance to pick the others' carcasses before it meets the same fate.


Sounds exactly right to me.

Note the total lack of response to the Ice Free Arctic, except
that we'll need to find another Carrier Task Force somewhere
to guard the trade routes and minerals that we can now
excavate from the region.
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Re: China or the U.S.: which will be the last nation standing?

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Thu 04 Feb 2010, 11:26:27

This is indeed the Tragedy of the Commons writ large.

And anyone trying Resilience over Growth will be subsumed.

Our Leaders are stuck in a Newtonian ElectroMechanical Construct
while Quantum Physics emerges as the new Meme.
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Re: China or the U.S.: which will be the last nation standing?

Unread postby mos6507 » Thu 04 Feb 2010, 11:34:30

I've always kind of rooted for people like Heinberg and Lester Brown even though I didn't think they'd succeed in leading a charge to reform the powers that be. But once they abandon their optimism and pack it in, then you KNOW we're in for a bumpy ride. We seem to be on the cusp of that. I still think Heinberg would prefer to attack this top-down. That's what the Post-Carbon-Institute was created for. That's Heinberg's rhetorical inertia. That explains his mixed messages, but the march of events is destroying what's left of his optimism. He seems to be on the verge of just folding his tent and shacking up with Rob Hopkins and company on the TT bandwagon.
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Re: China or the U.S.: which will be the last nation standing?

Unread postby Ludi » Thu 04 Feb 2010, 11:42:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mcgowanjm', 'T')his is indeed the Tragedy of the Commons writ large.

And anyone trying Resilience over Growth will be subsumed.



So you're saying that any citizen trying to reduce their need to earn and live frugally will be forced (by the Chinese?) to work hard and buy stuff they don't need?

I guess I'm not entirely sure what you mean by "subsumed"?

Can you clarify? Thanks.
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Re: China or the U.S.: which will be the last nation standing?

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Thu 04 Feb 2010, 11:55:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mcgowanjm', 'T')his is indeed the Tragedy of the Commons writ large.

And anyone trying Resilience over Growth will be subsumed.



So you're saying that any citizen trying to reduce their need to earn and live frugally will be forced (by the Chinese?) to work hard and buy stuff they don't need?

I guess I'm not entirely sure what you mean by "subsumed"?

Can you clarify? Thanks.


Yes, thank you, and I looked up 'subsumed' to be sure.

Any Growth Paradigm(in it's latest stages)will engulf a Resilient Paradigm. It has to. And nation trying for Resilience will
be eaten. And community trying for resilience will be stifled.

Why the demise of civilisation may be inevitable - life - 02 April ...
Disturbingly, recent insights from fields such as complexity theory suggest that ... This law of diminishing returns appears everywhere, Tainter says. ... If you would like to reuse any content from New Scientist, either in print or ...

www.newscientist.com/.../mg19826501.500 ... table.html

See US Manifest Destiny over Indigenous for details.

But in a Cosmic Paradox, Resilient doesn't lose. Like a 4GW movement, the Resilient simply folds/bends/moves around
the growth until growth enters Complexity and the Law of Diminishing
Returns.

Where we are now, as Mos conveyed, that Heinberg has 'stepped aside' and is 'waiting' for the two Mastadons to falter.
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Re: China or the U.S.: which will be the last nation standing?

Unread postby Ludi » Thu 04 Feb 2010, 12:00:27

Ok, you seem to be saying resilience will be subsumed/engulfed but will ultimately win out when the growth paradigm eventually collapses.
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Re: China or the U.S.: which will be the last nation standing?

Unread postby Ludi » Thu 04 Feb 2010, 12:02:11

How do you "stifle" a community trying for resilience? How do you force people to work and buy things they don't want or need?

I guess I'm just curious about this stifling process and when it will begin.
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Re: China or the U.S.: which will be the last nation standing?

Unread postby JJ » Thu 04 Feb 2010, 12:04:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'H')ow do you "stifle" a community trying for resilience? How do you force people to work and buy things they don't want or need?

I guess I'm just curious about this stifling process and when it will begin.


you tax them.
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Re: China or the U.S.: which will be the last nation standing?

Unread postby eastbay » Thu 04 Feb 2010, 12:11:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JJ', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'H')ow do you "stifle" a community trying for resilience? How do you force people to work and buy things they don't want or need?

I guess I'm just curious about this stifling process and when it will begin.


you tax them.



.... and code them.

And then clobber them with a clever and slick unified media propaganda campaign including, 'you are not a good parent unless you buy.... A, B, C, and the rest.'
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Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha
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Re: China or the U.S.: which will be the last nation standing?

Unread postby mos6507 » Thu 04 Feb 2010, 12:12:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JJ', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'H')ow do you "stifle" a community trying for resilience? How do you force people to work and buy things they don't want or need?

I guess I'm just curious about this stifling process and when it will begin.


you tax them.


I would reluctantly agree with that. Taxes could be the mortal blow to doomsteaders, forcing communities to try to secede which would be, um, messy.
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Re: China or the U.S.: which will be the last nation standing?

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Thu 04 Feb 2010, 12:17:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JJ', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'H')ow do you "stifle" a community trying for resilience? How do you force people to work and buy things they don't want or need?

I guess I'm just curious about this stifling process and when it will begin.


you tax them.


:twisted: 8O

Along with the above positive contributions to destroying Resilience:

And then redirect those taxes to the most unproductive areas
possible. Like Afghanistan. And keeping Housing 'Values'
up.
While keeping Capital Gains at 15%. Zero if reinvested.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ilargi', '
')Thing is and that's why I'm talking about "we're having the wrong conversation", this problem will never be solved. We've accumulated so much debt we'll never be able to pay it off. And so the financial world is dead on arrival. As are most politicians. They're all stuck in a defunct model. And now the people are going to take over, and it'll be ugly. Obama could have prevented it, but chose not to do so.

So the American people, out on the streets, will have to come up with the Plan B their government refuses to supply. We're stuck in the middle of a mastodont political crisis, and we don’t even see it, and not even just in the US, and nobody'd be talking about it but those who better not talk at all.
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Re: China or the U.S.: which will be the last nation standing?

Unread postby Ludi » Thu 04 Feb 2010, 12:25:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JJ', '
')you tax them.



I suppose....can you point to any families or communities who have attempted to be sustainable and failed by being taxed to death? Or coded to death? I look at an example of a family like the Dervaes of Pasadena, and think "everyone with a yard could do that." They've been doing their things for many years now.

When I see these arguments "we'll be prevented from changing" I can't help but think of the Flanders "We've tried nothin' and we're all out of ideas."

:|
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Re: China or the U.S.: which will be the last nation standing?

Unread postby mos6507 » Thu 04 Feb 2010, 12:41:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JJ', '
')you tax them.



I suppose....can you point to any families or communities who have attempted to be sustainable and failed by being taxed to death? Or coded to death? I look at an example of a family like the Dervaes of Pasadena, and think "everyone with a yard could do that." They've been doing their things for many years now.

When I see these arguments "we'll be prevented from changing" I can't help but think of the Flanders "We've tried nothin' and we're all out of ideas."

:|




This is where the inevitable comparison to the fall of Rome comes into play. Or maybe the time of Robin Hood when the public were taxed to fund the crusades.

I am not that much of a student of history so I don't know how bad those incidents were but I do know that the public is genuinely worried about how the government will balance its budget.

The federal debt was bad enough under Bush (aka deficits don't matter!), but now it's so far out of control I just don't know what the endgame is.

The current tax burden is no guidepost to what could lie ahead.

I know it's uncharacteristic of me to push the jack-boot-thug meme but insofar as we're all american citizens here, we're all on the hook one way or another for the federal budget. It would be nice to think that we could skirt under the radar with our doomsteads but I don't know if that will be possible.
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Re: China or the U.S.: which will be the last nation standing?

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Thu 04 Feb 2010, 12:42:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JJ', '
')you tax them.



I suppose....can you point to any families or communities who have attempted to be sustainable and failed by being taxed to death? Or coded to death? I look at an example of a family like the Dervaes of Pasadena, and think "everyone with a yard could do that." They've been doing their things for many years now.

When I see these arguments "we'll be prevented from changing" I can't help but think of the Flanders "We've tried nothin' and we're all out of ideas."

:|


And then the two other legs of the 'stool':
the ability to hide/accrue debt and violence.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ZeroHedgeonthe2010Budget', '
')As readers can see, we are not talking about just any paltry amount: the most recent US total debt balance was $12.222 trillion. It would seem a little presumptuous that an amount representing more than half of the total US sovereign debt($6.3T in GSE's) is conveniently swept under the rug.

And with the omission from the Federal Budget, America's population once again has absolutely no visibility into the real fiscal costs associated with the government's support for the Debtor Nation Sponsored Entities (aka DeNSEs).


Monday, January 18, 2010
Real Communities are Self-Organizing

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Orlov', 'W')hat takes a lot of work is not organizing communities, but preventing them from organizing — through the use of truncheons and tear gas, or evictions and mass imprisonment, or, more recently, more subtle and ultimately more successful techniques of the consumerist political economy.


http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/

I keep thinking of that quote from an Iranian at the end of the Shah's reign, "Look at this knife. In Iran today we cannot
even make a good knife."

Of course someone in Iran could've been found who still
made a 'good knife', but you and I get the point. The nation
as a whole was on it's knees. And taxes, hiding/accruing debts,
and violence was keeping it there.
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Re: China or the U.S.: which will be the last nation standing?

Unread postby efarmer » Thu 04 Feb 2010, 12:54:57

Kind of like duality don't you? Us or them. Kind of keeping with the American
trait as of late of screwing off, racking up the credit to the max, and then
going to war when the behavior comes home to roost.

Let's send them a letter.

Dear China,
Our leadership has gone snake, we are spoiled by your cheap stuff
and can't lay off it, we have used up your savings you loaned us and
need some more. If this keeps up, could we borrow enough money
to send our army over to kick your ass? It would stir us up and unify
us, and it would mean jobs for many of our people and weapons
factories (notice we still kept all of our weapons factories). And don't
start in with the fact that we did this to ourselves because we are not
that stoopit.

J6P

P.S. Could you send some cheap ammo to Wal Mart so we can hedge
against things getting bad here while we wait for the loan to allow us to
come over and tangle with you guys?
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