[Rod_Cloutier]

What will it be??

The H1N1 pandemic has only killed 600 worldwide so far, well below the net world population increase this year.

The banks are making money again and repaying their TARP funds, a small miracle in itself, but a sign they may be becoming more stable.

The US dollar is starting to tank again, but it retains the confidence as the most stable currency in the world.

Obama ignored North Korea's recent nuclear threats and now North Korea is releasing political prisoners.

Russia responded to the collapse of the Soviet Union by subsidising the social cost of Vodka. It might be a sign of imminent collapse if local governments start subsiding rye and burbon.

Looks like a good farm harvest again this year, so armagadon avoided for at least 3 more seasons.

Still waiting....

[PrestonSturges]

And my favorite gun shop has been having a SALE because they are overstocked on assault weapons.

Embarrassingly, I've even had to start paying attention to my actual job again just on the chance that the world isn't ending.

[Caffeine]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Repent', 'L')ooks like a good farm harvest again this year, so armagadon avoided for at least 3 more seasons. Still waiting....

[cipi604]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Caffeine', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Repent', 'L')ooks like a good farm harvest again this year, so armagadon avoided for at least 3 more seasons. Still waiting....

[Caffeine]

Eating less meat does not prevent wheat harvests from failing.

(I do understand the point that eating meat is often much less energy-efficient than eating plant life.)

[TreebeardsUncle]

Hey you peak oil cultists, you sound just like the Jehovas Witnesses cult that has been falsely predicting the end of times since 1913 or so.

Don't think much is going on really. Very isolated, paranoid pessimists tend to harbor delusions of the world coming to an end.

G

[Plantagenet]

Oil hit $130/barrel last year and this year the world is in the worst economic contraction since the great depression and you don't think "very much is going on"?

Oil demand is Waaaaaay Down due to the contraction, but the price has risen to $70.

Where do you think the price of oil will go if the recovery continues? $100? $150? $300?

What happens to the world economy then?

How many times can we go around that loop? Wahahahahahahahahah!!!

[waegari]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Repent', ' ')Obama ignored North Korea's recent nuclear threats and now North Korea is releasing political prisoners.

[Maddog78]

Everything is great where I live in B.C.
House sales up 100 percent last month.
That's right, double from a year ago.
Unemployment at 7 percent a little higher than it was but not too bad.
I know people that have changed and found jobs with no problem.
Contractors I know who were slow in the winter and early spring are busy again.
Store shelves are full. Plenty of holidayers around. RV's everywhere.
They say there is a few less than before but it doesn't seem like a whole lot less.
Maybe the full whammy of the recession is delayed in hitting us in this part of Canada so we'll see.

[NoWorries]

The economic crisis largely appears to have resolved, surprisingly. The US economy has incredible resiliency. It's just amazing.

And the US dollar shows no signs of "tanking", as I thought it would have done by now.

Therefore the biggest threat remains peak oil. I predict $90 by year end, and $110 by this time next year. It will be an incremental approach.

Also, the pig flu is something to worry about.

[RonMN]

The next shoe? May I suggest keeping your eye on Jefferson County Alabama for a peek into the near future?

Due to their financial crisis they are discussing calling up the national guard to police their streets...to "hedge against anarchy risk".

[Pops]

You people crack me up, this is the planning for the future forum, have you no plan for when Nothing happens?

I've never claimed to be an oracle but my guess is you'll fall victim to what Aaron has or I have or most likely an innocuous little pink slip of paper long before you'll use that stock of ammo on little kids raiding your watermelon patch or stealing your solar window heater.

[Maddog78]

Yeah, my only plan is for when nothing happens.

Not entirely true. I live in an earthquake zone, so I do keep a good stock of food, water, flashlights, propane for the bbq, first aid kit, fire extinguishers, that kind of thing to get me through a week or two of trouble should the big tremblor hit us.
It's hardly doomstead type planning though.

[FireJack]

The economic situation is largely resolved??!!?? Oil production is dropping like a rock, it's a matter of months before it really gets bad. If we get a few more years that's great but the information I've been reading says this is it.

[Maddog78]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FireJack', ' ')Oil production is dropping like a rock, it's a matter of months before it really gets bad.

[Pops]

Look I realize PO has pretty well become a free for all of late but this is the Planning forum, it is about doing, lets take the rest somewhere else.

[JJ]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TreebeardsUncle', 'H')ey you peak oil cultists, you sound just like the Jehovas Witnesses cult that has been falsely predicting the end of times since 1913 or so.
Don't think much is going on really. Very isolated, paranoid pessimists tend to harbor delusions of the world coming to an end.

[ian807]

I'm so OK with nothing happening. I hope nothing happens for the next 40 years or so.

There are reasons to doubt that this will be the case. Oil is a good place to focus because it interacts with so much, but so is money, food, JIT delivery systems, electrical systems, communication systems, diseases and computation systems. The interactive complexity between all these systems is our strength, and our Achilles heel. Something unexpected like a solar flare that hits us directly would take out half of the worlds power grid. Perhaps all if it went over a couple of days. I think a lot of people would starve before that got fixed.

Our enemy, and friend, is complexity. Someday, it will fail us, I'm afraid, in ways that are inherently unpredictable.

[Rod_Cloutier]

Caffiene wrote: "Could you provide some links to 2009 agricultural data that contradict this, please?"

I good hit. Funny how a worldwide drought that threatens the food supply for the entire human population hasn't made it into the mainstream news articles??

Maybe, as the article you quoted indicated that the drought afflicted areas are prohibiting exports has delayed this shortage effect. Maybe stockpiles of food, while declining to record levels, are, however, still sufficient to feed our populations.

Maybe, no one gives a damn about whether or not anybody in the 3rd world will have food to eat in 6 months, when instead they are worried that their 401K
has just gone up in smoke, or worried that the flu pandemic is going to kill them before they ever have to be concerned. (An absurd worry, as people have a far greater chance of being hit and killed by lighting strikes, than ever dying from the recent pandemic, despite all the media over-hype to the contrary.)

Good link though. (Although, now very dated the articles you quoted from were written in February of 2009, it is now the middle of August) It would be interesting to see what the current situation really is??