[FatherOfTwo]

If we are to assume that, due to the lack of mega discoveries, oil production peaks in 2007/2008, what will be the effect on oil (and other energy prices) from 2007-2017, and what ramifications will these prices have on society?

Vote in the poll.. I've tried to cover all of the scenarios, so please pick the one you feel is most likely

With the knowledge I have right at this moment, I think option 4&5 are statistically the most probable with option 3 being a wildcard. I think it ultimately is true that we've overshot; but barring full scale war or mass uprising in SA, the dire consequences of our overpopulation won't be felt all at once. The decline, while very painful, will take decades. Why?
1. We aren't running out of oil, we're running out of cheap oil.
2. Societies don't collapse overnight.
3. There is tremendous waste in society.
4. Alternates will come online, alleviating but not relieving the pressure.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')lternates will come online,

[FatherOfTwo]

There will be plenty of oil in the 2007-2017 timeframes to continue modern agriculture techniques, and there will be plenty of NG too. Both will be scarcer, and thus more expensive, and the resulting food will be more expensive.

[Ludi]

So there will be no alternates, is what you're saying...

[FatherOfTwo]

No, I didn't say that at all. But that topic is for another thread, please don't hijack this one.

[Ludi]

Sorry. You made a statement above which I found provocative. Didn't know it wasn't part of the discussion (then why did you post it?)....

[JayHMorrison]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')lternates will come online,

[maverickdoc]

"Once the cat is out of the bag (PO well known), all hell breaks loose as countries scramble for resources."

Haven't you been reading the news at all?

[Jack]

I voted the "All Hell breaks loose" option.

It happened on Easter Island. The Maya may have had a population decline of 99%. Are we really kinder and gentler than our ancestors? Even when we're hungry and cold? I think human nature has not changed that much.

[somethingtosay]

I vote for both 4 & 5 depending on the following:

If the world approaches the crisis with foresight and intelligence, then economic reality will follow the oil production curve. Demand destruction, adaptation and social and economic reengineering will occur to match the curve. (Option 4)

If world political discourse interferes and precipitates major crisis’s, then Option 5 is most likely as much of the remaining oil will be left in the ground unable to be capitalized. Economic and social chaos will result on a global scale, with the least prepared societies losing the most. (Option 5)

For me the real test begins when the North Sea Oil production drops below a critical amount thus significantly increasing the competition for ME oil. This one predictable event has the potential to break the international cooperation and peace that the world has enjoyed for the last 60 years.

[Antimatter]

I voted for two. I'm not a cornucopian but I've come to believe that oil won't peak untill around 2015 or maybe later. First, the famous megaprojects report at ODAC. It states that despite the lack of megaprojects due to come online in 2008/9/10 there are enough known potential developments to plug the gap. This suggests that the lack of scheduled projects is not for geological reasons. According to the report there is a 5.2 billion barrel field in Siberia, 2.5-3.5 billion barrel field in Iran, and many others not yet scheduled. Perhaps they are not needed? This report only considers takes into account megafields with hundreds of millions of barrels. According to the ASPO feburary 2005 newsletter, less than half the oil in 2004 was found in fields of over 100 million barrels. This ratio has probably been similar over the last 10 years or so. If this is true then the production from many smaller fields should at least equal the production from the fewer large fields. OPEC seems to intend on keeping oil in the $40-50 region, this should put the brakes on growth somewhat and ensure that the more expensive projects (Caspian Sea) are fasttracked.

Also read this report posted on the front page today: http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/article_display.cfm?Section=ONART&C=GenIn&ARTICLE_ID=221410&p=7

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')orld oil production capacity could jump by more than 16 million b/d to 101.5 million b/d by 2010, with the addition split "fairly evenly" between members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC producers, said an executive of Cambridge Energy Research Associates, a subsidiary of IHS Inc.

In a Feb. 15 briefing at the weeklong CERA executive conference in Houston, Peter Jackson, director of oil industry activity, said 7.6 million b/d of the projected increased total liquids production capacity would be from non-OPEC producers, with OPEC supplying 8.9 million b/d. World production of crude liquids is not expected to peak before 2020, he said.

[Doly]

I was expecting more variety in opinions, but there's a big majority going for option 5 - Energy prices will rise at significant rates, which in conjunction with other factors (such as raising interest rates) will lead to a significant global recession.

The big question is: and after recession, what?

[No-Oil]

I voted for #5 on the basis that the worlds money streams are better than 50% virtual, i.e. I owe you, so you have borrowed & loaned more to get more owing to you, but you now owe someone else. When the SHTF, then the economy won't just decline, it will plummet. There are many more people out on a limb today than there were in 1929 & this includes some of you guys that play the markets & their virtual money games. They won't be giving broke brokers a decent burial after this collapse, they will be filling in mass graves with the suiciders like they did in the Tsunami zone.

Don't think this is possible !? Well look back to the UK hurricane of the late 1980's this was a mini loss on global terms, but nearly destroyed the UK insurance industry literally overnight. There were a few suicides & many people lost their shirts when they had to stump up real money to cover the virtual money losses.

Look at the Bearings bank scandal with Nick Leeson that brought a major downer on the stock markets & it was only something like a 750Million dollar loss. The markets are nowhere near as robust as the traders think. They have survived so long, because where one company loses in one trade zone, another gains in another zone. What do you think the result of mass loses across multiple (if not all) zones will be ? Total economic collapse & it will be practically over night, a year or two at the most. Just look at the oil shock in 1973 & what it did to the economy, again there was no shortage, just a big hike in cost. Businesses closed faster than the governments unemployment figures could keep up with & they were just counting them.

I remember the 1979 shock & it was small, but I went from 5 day working to short time 3 day working to unemployed in 3 months when the company I worked for went bust. It will be like dominoes IMO !

[maverickdoc]

I voted for "Energy prices will rise at hyper inflated rates leading to a depression" before I voted against it

[FatherOfTwo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '
')
The big question is: and after recession, what?

[RdSnt]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JayHMorrison', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')lternates will come online,

[No-Oil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RdSnt', 'G')enetically modified people.

[Tyler_JC]

DANGER, DANGER

The US is entering a recession. The leading economic indicators have fallen again... High energy prices are to blame. (but we all knew that)

[Revi]

I think that 2007/2008 will be the winter of our discontent. That's the date I have been preparing for for a while. the bad thing is that it's only 2 years away. Two years to get it all together. Kinda fun, really. Like an adventure is beginning just a few years away. I don't subscribe to all the doomer hype, but it is wise to be ready for a few lean years anyway.