[thuja]

How about changing the name to EconomicCollapse.com or FinancialArmageddon.com?

It looks like oil consumption is going to be radically reduced for quite a while, maybe a decade, as we witness a complete global economic meltdown. Yes energy issues will continue, but they will likely play second fiddle to a credit and liquidity crisis of gargantuan proportion.

Here comews 40$/barrel with 25 % undemployment. Who can afford gas even if it is "cheap"?

[gampy]

I am trying to figure out if you are being facetious, but I will take your post at face value, and say this:

Demand destuction is always going to be part of the yo-yo slide down the other side of the bell curve. It certainly will change the degree of the slope, but not by enough to give us cheap energy for centuries to come. The supply of recoverable oil is getting more and more scarce every year.

But it's interesting to speculate whether a global banking/financial meltdown will put us into 1930's energy consumption within 5 years.

The world can go down the toilet in many ways. Sometimes the shit hits the fans all at the same time.

Life is like that that.
When it rains, it pours.

I imagine by next year, we will be discussing
some catastrophic ecological devastation on top of a global economic depression, and the year after that, a nuclear exchange.

Peak-oil, and it's ramifications will be bubbling underneath all this the whole time.

[Pops]

Naw, the little economic problems today will either exacerbate or ameliorate the real problem of declining energy (depending on the reception of your acrylic ball) but in the end PO and it's economic effects will trump pretty well everything else.

EconomicCollapse.com or FinancialArmageddon.com would surely divert lots of off topic stuff from this site though...

[eastbay]

Costly oil is the accelerant intensifying the flames in our current economic house fire.

Peak oil has not been put aside at all.

[thuja]

Of course it hasn't been put aside- in the big picture- Peak Oil is the name of the game. But for how long do you think a global economic meltdown will cause enough demand destruction to make it a moot point? 2 years? 5 years? 20 years?

Seriously, if oil consumption is reduced by 20 -40 % due to a Massive worldwide depression, we will not be discussing Peak OIl, we will be discussing economic survival.

[Pops]

But aren't they two sides to the same coin?

For years now you and I have been debating (I'm paraphrasing so don't get excited)

earn more vs need less

PO IS economic Armageddon to which little or even big blips on someone's or even everyone's financial radar can't hold a candle.

The thing to worry about in my worthless opinion (which I'm told recently will get you killed) is how long is one willing to bet they can earn enough to keep up the charade and at the same time prepare to need less.


Sounds strange reading it back to myself but I can't figure how to make it more clear

[GoghGoner]

Well, in the case of oil, I don't think a higher price means higher supply, what a higher price does is guarantee the highest reduced supply possible, now lowering prices should mean supply will be reducing at a faster rate -- as if I wasn't alarmed enough.

[thuja]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'B')ut aren't they two sides to the same coin?

For years now you and I have been debating (I'm paraphrasing so don't get excited)

earn more vs need less

PO IS economic Armageddon to which little or even big blips on someone's or even everyone's financial radar can't hold a candle.

The thing to worry about in my worthless opinion (which I'm told recently will get you killed) is how long is one willing to bet they can earn enough to keep up the charade and at the same time prepare to need less.


Sounds strange reading it back to myself but I can't figure how to make it more clear

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'Y')ou ask folks from the Great Depression if they were working on simplifying their lives. They'd say huh? they were working on getting and keeping a job...any job.

[thuja]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'Y')ou ask folks from the Great Depression if they were working on simplifying their lives. They'd say huh? they were working on getting and keeping a job...any job.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'O')f course, its a key strategy. But how many threads do you se devoted to tending chickens, growing your own, storing food, buying land etc, compared to how man threads do you see about retooling your job skills towards retaining a job during a Depression?

I'd say its about 20 to 1.

People need jobs...will continue to need jobs...

We are not entering a grand new age where jobs are no longer needed...

[smallpoxgirl]

As far as I can tell, the economic crisis the world is currently facing is an inside view of what demand destruction looks like. I don't think this is going to negate peak oil. I don't think it's going to delay peak oil. I think this is peak oil. This is what happens when a growth based economic system slams head on into a geologically limited energy supply.

[jasonraymondson]

Both of those domains are taken, research your domain names before making suggestions.

I would prefer we call this place jasonraymondsonslapahosite.com

[thuja]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')This is PO.com after all and folks are looking to the past as well as the future and most particularly to individual and local efforts in order to find a way forward.

Everyone will need something to trade for what they can't produce themselves for as long as I can imagine I'll also guess the idea of the "job" as the be all and end all of survival really got started with cheap energy and will end with it as well.

Just my thought T.

[thuja]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', 'A')s far as I can tell, the economic crisis the world is currently facing is an inside view of what demand destruction looks like. I don't think this is going to negate peak oil. I don't think it's going to delay peak oil. I think this is peak oil. This is what happens when a growth based economic system slams head on into a geologically limited energy supply.

[smallpoxgirl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'Y')ou're right- it won't negate Peak Oil. That is a geological mandate. But will it put off a Peak for deacdes to come due to a massive and sustained economic collapse?

[thuja]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'Y')ou're right- it won't negate Peak Oil. That is a geological mandate. But will it put off a Peak for deacdes to come due to a massive and sustained economic collapse?

[smallpoxgirl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'I')s it really 6 months to a year before we "dust ourselves off" and start ratcheting up our energy consumption again?

[Roccland]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'H')ow about changing the name to EconomicCollapse.com or FinancialArmageddon.com?

It looks like oil consumption is going to be radically reduced for quite a while, maybe a decade, as we witness a complete global economic meltdown. Yes energy issues will continue, but they will likely play second fiddle to a credit and liquidity crisis of gargantuan proportion.

Here comews 40$/barrel with 25 % undemployment. Who can afford gas even if it is "cheap"?

[TheDude]

Oh ye of little faith!

Less than golden week for auto sales

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')y Pei Pei (chinadaily.com.cn)
Updated: 2008-10-07 15:12

China's auto sales saw only a slight rise during the weeklong National Day holiday, also known as golden week, after having experienced a two-month downturn as a result of rising raw material prices, slumping stock market, soaring consumer price index (CPI), and the deepening US financial crisis.

Over the course of the seven days, auto sales in Beijing saw a one-fold increase year-on-year, said an unnamed source of Beijing Asian Games Village Auto Market to China Business News. The passenger flow at the village was almost 10,000 per day, and the daily sales volume was about 100, according to statistics from the auto market.