[qwanta]

I rank "Dies the Fire" up there as one of the best post-apocalyptic novels ever written. For those unfamiliar with the book (actually a series), author, S.M.Stirling does a great job of extrapolating beyond the initial collapse and the first few months/years of survivalist living by thinking things through and describing the kind of social structures/tribes/societies that would develop from the rubble. This is done with aplomb and plausibility and for me, who had never managed to really think past the initial stages of collapse (gold & ammo in a bunker), this was a great eye opener.

The only thing with the book is that the collapse is not brought on by peak oil, but by a science fiction event - an unexplained shift in the basic properties of the universe at the atomic level - that causes gunpowder and fossil fuel to burn with less energy thus shifting civilization back to the technology level of Norman/Medieval Europe.

Anyway, I saw Stirling had a blog at amazon and asked him if he had ever considered writing a post peak oil novel. Here is his reply:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ctually, the whole "Peak Oil" thing is a crock, rather like the survivalist hysteria of the 80's and 90's. It's a matter of psychological projection -- people longing for an apocalypse, due to some wiring problem.

To begin with, petroleum =/= energy. Our primary source of energy is coal, followed by nuclear. And there's enough coal in Wyoming alone to keep the US running at current levels of consumption for 1000 years.

Petroleum is merely currently our primary source of liquid transportation fuels. We use it for that because it's cheap and convenient, not because there's no alternative.

The "Peak Oil" types also simply don't understand how subsitutability functions in a capitalist economy. These "we're all going to die because X is running out" panics go back centuries and they're always wrong.

Short form: if something becomes more expensive, immediately people try to find more of it(*), they find ways to do more with less of it(**), and they look for substitues.

Coal was a substitute for limited supplies of firewood/charcoal, for example.

You can't predict precisely what substitutes people will find; that would be like outguessing the market. You can predict that they _will_ find substitutes -- or at least they have in 100% of cases so far.

In a scientific/capitalist economy:

High prices produce low prices.
Scarcity produces glut.
Shortage produces abundance.

It's automatic, like pulling on a rope.

(*) for example, Brazil just found an ultra-deep ocean petroleum field which will turn it from an importer into a major exporter. The field couldn't even have been _discovered_ 10 years ago, much less exploited.

(**) we now need about half the petroleum per unit of GDP that we did in the 1980's. There is no reason to believe this process will end, or even slow down.

For example, current cars average about about 25 miles to the gallon.

Plug-in hybrids, using only currently available tech, get about 150-250 MPG, and costs are not significantly different from conventional cars.

Basically they use (coal/nuclear generated) electricity for the first 60 miles or so, and liquid fuel for trips beyond that, via the internal-combustion engine generator set they carry.

80% of cars in the US drive 60 miles or less per day.

And 75% of all our cars could be converted to to this system _without any additional generating capacity_, simply by charging the cars in off-peak hours, at night.

This would _reduce_ the price of electrical energy by keeping the (very expensive) generating stations going nearer their optimum level for more of the day. It would also reduce pollution because big coal-fired generators have much higher thermal efficiency than small gas engines.

So we can either reduce our use of petroleum by 90% without giving up any cars, or have 10x the number of cars without using any more petroleum.

And this is _without_ any technological breathroughs.

[TheDude]

I thought Dies the Fire sucked out loud, and I'm not surprised to see his logical deductions are about as sophisticated or plausible as his plot construction.

[dunewalker]

I enjoyed "Dies The Fire"a lot. It's disappointing to see what a limited understanding of reality the author has. He probably doesn't even think the world will ever be like it was in his book...

[NoWorries]

Some quick comments:

1. Food production. Manufacturing fertilizer is petroleum-intensive. He doesn't address this at all, and it's a big issue;

2. Long-haul transfer trucks transport approx. 90% of everything consumed by N. Americans. I don't see any hybrid semi-trucks on the horizon as yet;

3. Container vessels are the mainstay of international freight. Same issue as #2;

4. Airplanes are primary mode of travel for business. National and international commerce will suffer very badly if most airlines fail (and that's not a stretch -- Look at what Bob Crandell had to say last week).

Stirling may be a creative genius, and I respect him for that -- But he's off his rocker is he believes the Prius is the answer to Peak Oil. It will put a dent in demand, no doubt, but personal transport is not the primary factor here.

[Eli]

He is in for one painful education.

It is ironic that a guy who wrote a book about a lack of energy does not see PO coming.



When talking about oil, if the person has never heard of Ghawar or Cantarell they really just need to STFU , because they have no idea what they are talking about.

[Dezakin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NoWorries', 'S')ome quick comments:

1. Food production. Manufacturing fertilizer is petroleum-intensive. He doesn't address this at all, and it's a big issue;

[Dezakin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', 'H')e is in for one painful education.

It is ironic that a guy who wrote a book about a lack of energy does not see PO coming.



When talking about oil, if the person has never heard of Ghawar or Cantarell they really just need to STFU , because they have no idea what they are talking about.

[tmulk]

I read his books. They were ok as fiction goes. I hated his assumption that we will go back to some kind of feudal serfdom. It was just to pat for me. It's too easy to say well this is what's going to happen and then use what's already happened, ( such as fighting weapons etc.) as a crutch. That's how I saw it, he used the middle ages as a crutch in his writing, instead of doing the writing for himself.


As for his views on peak oil? I agree that somebody who took the time to think about a crash in the systems, is so ridiculously stunted in knowledge about peak oil.

[Eli]

Dezakin is that what I said?

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '2'). Long-haul transfer trucks transport approx. 90% of everything consumed by N. Americans. I don't see any hybrid semi-trucks on the horizon as yet;

[NoWorries]

Fertilizer does indeed require a lot of fossil fuels:

"...The biggest culprit of fossil fuel usage in industrial farming is not transporting food or fueling machinery; it’s chemicals. As much as forty percent of energy used in the food system goes towards the production of artificial fertilizers and pesticides. Fertilizers are synthesized from atmospheric nitrogen and natural gas, a process that takes a significant amount of energy. Producing and distributing them requires an average of 5.5 gallons of fossil fuels per acre."

http://www.sustainabletable.org/issues/energy/

[Dezakin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NoWorries', 'F')ertilizer does indeed require a lot of fossil fuels:

"...The biggest culprit of fossil fuel usage in industrial farming is not transporting food or fueling machinery; it’s chemicals. As much as forty percent of energy used in the food system goes towards the production of artificial fertilizers and pesticides. Fertilizers are synthesized from atmospheric nitrogen and natural gas, a process that takes a significant amount of energy. Producing and distributing them requires an average of 5.5 gallons of fossil fuels per acre."

http://www.sustainabletable.org/issues/energy/

[Novus]

Someone should show him the great energy schematic of the world.

[mos6507]

"current levels of consumption" yet again. He should watch the Bartlett video.

[PhebaAndThePilgrim]

Good day from Pheba, from the farm:
Here's the bottom line on Stirling: He's an author!
Several years ago I was telling my father-in-law about a book I was reading.
The book was by author Scott Peck,and was about psychobabble.
My father-in-law is a retired carpenter, and has been farming all of his life. He is no nonsense, and very wise.
He listened until I was finished then he said: "I'll bet the son-of-a-b**** lives in Connecticut".
I was blown away. Scott Peck does indeed live in Connecticut.
I asked my father-in-law how he knew that. He does not like books, and does not read much. He prefers hands on learning, and an exchange of knowledge with other farmers and carpenters.
He said that most of those full-of-s*** authors live in Connecticut, New Hampshire, or Maine.
He is a man of few words, but very colorful in his speech.
He said that most authors never got their hands dirty in their entire life.
I can only imagine Scott Peck, Kunstler, Stirling, or any other author for that matter, (except James Herriott) with their hands inside a cow trying to pull a calf.
I chuckle when I think of that sh&& filled tail coming around and smacking them right in the face.

The bottom line: Authors are full of it, and not from a cows tail.

Pheba.