[AirlinePilot]

Im talking with some folks on a pilot forum I participate on. Weve been back and forth about peak oil and today one of the guys put this forth for me to chew on.

The quote is on the top, and my answer below. They dont like my ideas and Im going to retire from talking about it. It scares me that so many folks just aren't going to see this coming, they really have no clue as evidenced by this guys look at our "Energy Independence".

Here it is:


[quote=Rodney_Wren]
We use about 8.4 Billion Barrels per year for total oil independence.

800 billion in the oil shale + 59 billion known reserves offshore = 859 billion barrels of oil = 102 YEARS of oil.

How much do we need???????

That doesn't count the stuff in Alaska.


I think 100 years of oil will get us to the next level of technology. Hey - probably in less than 30 year I won't have to worry about it anymore.
[/quote]

Ahhh, here your missing the boat Rodney. It doesn't work like that.

Lets say that optimistically you can get 2 million barrels of oil per day out of Shale. Another million from ANWR, and another million barrels of oil per day from offshore growth.

I don't know If you've looked into it(I have) but that is going to take at least 10 years, optimistically. During that time our internal existing declines will have brought us down to somewhere around 4mbpd, If we are lucky.

So internally you have 4 and lets say just for kicks, we find a whole lot more oil and can go after it almost overnight, AND we double the numbers I put up above! DOUBLE!

That brings the US grand total to 12mbpd and totally whacks our decline, putting us into a new paradigm of world production! Greater than the Saudi's, Russia, Mexico, or the North Sea!

Guess what? You still need to import 10-11 million barrels per day to meet projected demand.

You are not making up that deficit with anything else. Alternatives cannot do it, maybe part, but the lions share still remains. All this on top of some magical hope that all world production undergoes some miraculous shift to enough growth to overcome their own decline!

So we may have hundreds, or even many hundreds of years of oil left, but what matters most, what trumps all the optimism, is extraction rates. Its the 800 lb Gorilla that knocks economies and societies on their ass since we didn't plan for it. Things had to have changed before we got to where we are. Its that simple, and its that ugly.

And that is why this time around is like no other time in the history of oil production. We got ringside seats!

[Plantagenet]

I know just what you mean.

I have a friend here at the University who is a petroleum geologist who just doesn't "get it." She is a good scientist and she understands and agrees with all the "facts", but she just can't intellectually accept the scary implications of peak oil.

[mercurygirl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'S')o we may have hundreds, or even many hundreds of years of oil left, but what matters most, what trumps all the optimism, is extraction rates. Its the 800 lb Gorilla that knocks economies and societies on their ass since we didn't plan for it. Things had to have changed before we got to where we are. Its that simple, and its that ugly.

[AirlinePilot]

Yeah I wrote it myself.

Sometimes the frustration shows through i guess. I try very hard not to be a harbinger of doom, but folks seem to just not want to understand.

[AirlinePilot]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'W')e use about 8.4 Billion Barrels per year for total oil independence.

800 billion in the oil shale + 59 billion known reserves offshore = 859 billion barrels of oil = 102 YEARS of oil.

How much do we need???????

That doesn't count the stuff in Alaska.

[yull]

What I have learnt with regards to debating such topics of the internet is that some people will not be convinced. Their minds are inherently illogical so trying to use logic and evidence against them is a waste of time. What I tend to do is give them the facts, the data, some links, backed with my own thoughts and argument and I then ask them to Google the subject This is a test to see if they are logical and value data. If after this they come out with another illogical denialist rant then it is time to give up and not waste any more time.

[btu2012]

For some people the idea of endless growth and "progress" is a religion. No amount of evidence will shake their beliefs. It's quite common with ideologies, in this case the Enlightenment ideology of linear progress.

[Muckingfess]

REPEAT:

Do not attempt to teach a pig to sing. You will just get totally frustrated and it annoys the pig.

[TheDude]

Working on a Peak Oil Crib Sheet - bare bones data for my own reference, and to better state my case. For oil shale you simply need to consider that the Shell in-situ process demands 1.2 GW of electricity for every 100 kbpd - which Vinegar says will be supplied by local NG - have you read about the mad pace of unconventional NG drilling? These wells are toast within a year or two. We're lead to believe that Shell's process is less water intensive than surface retorting. Not so - any substantial extraction would pretty much drain the Colorado River Basin, leaving the local populace to drink what? Sierra Springs bottles? Some talk of building pipelines from the Great Lakes or porting electricity from SW states solar projects. Ah, sweet mystery of life! I think you'd get a better EROEI building solar power satellites.

And Shell is snapping up water leases!

Tell your friend that 59 billion in offshore is a highball guess - and that until test wells are drilled we could be looking at huge salt water reservoirs. 2 billion was blown in the early 80s going after one such field in the NPR in north Alaska. The only well to exploit Alaska's additional offshore bounty is the Northstar field, which cost 1.5 billion, took 6 years to develop, is only 6 miles NW of Prudhoe, and will peak at 65 kbpd.

[Ferretlover]

I have often pondered this-why don't/can't people easily change? So far, I have tentatively narrowed it down to this: By the time most people reach Jr High/Middle School, the way that they are able to absorb and understand input has been decided (probably a result of a combination of nature and nurture).
So, when information comes along that does not fit into the way they think, they dismiss it, no matter how important it may be to their existence or survival.
I suspect a socialist could explain it better, but I, so far, have broken people down into the following groups:
1. Those who cannot and will never really understand what is going on around them under any circumstnces.
2. Those who cannot understand what is happening, realize something is wrong, but don't care.
3. Those who cannot understand what is happening, but still have a little bit of curiousity left and may seek to broaden their horizons.
4. Those who think outside the box, realize what is going on around them and function well in understanding most of the "big picture" and can deal with it.
5. Those who quickly grasp the perimeters of any situation or problem, see most or all the different paths leading up to and away from the situation.
Sort of a traditional bell curve.......
Frustration occurs when we assume that everybody else thinks the same way that we do, yet they do not respond to stimuli the same way that we do.

Edited to fix typo.

[vision-master]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') have often pondered this-why don't/can't people easily change? So far, I have tentatively narrowed it down to this:

[TheDude]

Ferretlover - AP's buddy doesn't really fit into any of your categories, they've been lead to believe that we simply need to drill our way back to $1.50/gallon and hey presto. It's not that they "Cannot understand." Possibly they've never given the matter much serious thought or investigation, and it certainly sounds like they're confident in what they're hearing as easy solutions from the MSM. How they respond to AP might pin things down a bit.

Certainly we see all of your examples on this board. From some perspectives - eg. OF2 - you see the converse applied. Am I incapable of understanding the situation because I deny the significance of Brazilian offshore or IHS estimates of Iraq? Duh... Best thing to do is to try and see things from all possible viewpoints, otherwise you're just looking for a boost to your ego.

Dire forecasts are ahead by three lengths in my peak oil Kentucky Derby, though.

[jato]

EROEI

and

Rate of production



If someone can't grasp those 2 concepts, there is no hope for them to understand the problems we face.

[socrates1fan]

People shouldn't think we are going into a world like resident evil but at the same time people shouldn't be idiots either.
The time we have(and if someone says "we don't have any." we have time until the plucking planet explodes.) should be used to invest in public transport, local resources, etc instead of thinking it is just going to pass and that they can drive their SUVs again.
This time is a chance to rebuild our long gone public transportation, local resources, and community.
People are going to(in the end) grasp this issue and try to find alternatives.
It is just taking awhile.

[crankbaitz]

Oil has to run out sometime, that is a point I just came to grips with, question is, will there be trouble when it is all gone or when suplies start to dwindle?

I see now the mid east (Libya) inform us they will cut production because there is not enough deman for oil. I would expect them to sell more at these prices while they can, I think they are running lower also and lying about it... This is eye opening.

Peak oil is an amazing prospect, why has no one warned us before? Here is my insight, I think they are all covering up a shortage problem and we are going to get higher and higher prices.