[aflurry]

One of the more constant ideas embedded in our speculations about the social effects of Peak Oil is that the economic decline it brings will bring torrents of crime, violence, and societal decay. This is so often seen as inevitable that my natural skepticism perks up.

My question is, what evidence to we have that violence and crime will rise, inversely correlated with oil production? After all, centuries of, albeit politically motivated, sociological studies on crime have produced little hard evidence of its origins.

I haven't been able to find any trustworthy statistics on any rise or fall in violent crimes during the Great Depression. (Some right wingers are citing a decline in murder rates to support their views that crime is a function of "moral" decay rather than economic woes - but this is kind of like a tautology... "they commit crimes because they are immoral and they are immoral because they commit crimes.")

Does anyone have a good source for historical crime rates in the US going back through the GD?

Does anyone have any non-hysterical comments to make on the likelihood of a gruesome and desperate spike in crime bearing down upon us?

[desultorypawn]

I'm not sure if there have been studies that prove a causality or correlation between poverty and crime.

I am sure that if I'm cold/sick/hungry/dying and I know the neighbors aren't I'm going to do something about it, regardless of legality, and I think most humans are the same way.

[Fishman]

Though not a statistical arguement, how about the news running right now:
Gridlocked cities, empty shelves and bloodshed as fury at soaring costs spreads

And to the response:
I am sure that if I'm cold/sick/hungry/dying and I know the neighbors aren't I'm going to do something about it, regardless of legality, and I think most humans are the same way.

Might I refer the nonbelievers in gun defense

[JoeW]

Why not just ask your local police department where the criminal activity is in your area?
Chances are, it is in the "poorer" part of town.

[Dreamtwister]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('desultorypawn', 'I')'m not sure if there have been studies that prove a causality or correlation between poverty and crime.

[aflurry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JoeW', 'W')hy not just ask your local police department where the criminal activity is in your area?
Chances are, it is in the "poorer" part of town.

[aflurry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dreamtwister', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('desultorypawn', 'I')'m not sure if there have been studies that prove a causality or correlation between poverty and crime.

[Fishman]

Aflurry
Your arguement of causation vs correlation is one of the best I've seen presented here. Ecomonic decline has been blunted in the past with Welfare and Unemployment programs also. As governments run out of money and these programs are abandoned even further will be a greater test.

[hope_full]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t's only a crime if someone who is poor does it. Rob some guy at an ATM to feed your family, you're a criminal. Rob a billion people through inflation? Well that's just economics.

[Dreamtwister]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hope_full', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t's only a crime if someone who is poor does it. Rob some guy at an ATM to feed your family, you're a criminal. Rob a billion people through inflation? Well that's just economics.

[aflurry]

It's very difficult to talk about the causes of crime without tying it into political agendas... I am a liberal and in favor *in principle* of well executed social programs for the poor. Though many may see, or imagine they see these programs exacerbating the social ills or moral failures present in poor communities, i am inclined to regard those theories of causation as as poorly thought out as the supposedly liberal idea that poverty leads to crime and so solve poverty > solve crime.

I guess i just think the causal chains are far more complicated, situation specific, and have far too many links for this kind of blunt analysis. My support for social programs is independent of any theory of their link to crime.

Trying to locate information on crime and the great depression, I found this helpful link, and a bunch of right wing agenda sites that use the apparently low crime rates during the Great Depression as fodder for their argument that

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he real cause of crime is not a poverty of resources but a poverty of values.

[Jenab6]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('desultorypawn', 'I')'m not sure if there have been studies that prove a causality or correlation between poverty and crime.

I am sure that if I'm cold/sick/hungry/dying and I know the neighbors aren't I'm going to do something about it, regardless of legality, and I think most humans are the same way.

[joelcolorado]

The higher the unemployment around here, the more crime increases. And you can then get good deals at the pawn shops too.

[SoylentGreen]

Lack of $ is the root of all evil. Has been, will continue to be.

[Jenab6]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SoylentGreen', 'L')ack of $ is the root of all evil. Has been, will continue to be.

[VMarcHart]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aflurry', 'D')oes anyone have any non-hysterical comments to make on the likelihood of a gruesome and desperate spike in crime bearing down upon us?

[aflurry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jenab6', '
')The "poverty causes crime" hypothesis does not agree with observational evidence, and we must conclude, therefore, that it is false, however fond liberals might be of it.

Jerry Abbott

[VMarcHart]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aflurry', 'O')n this board we seem to think we know a whole lot about the future. And in most of those scenarios, there's a serious booga-booga element of rampant violent street crime... it ain't necessarily so.

[Muckingfess]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aflurry', 'O')n this board we seem to think we know a whole lot about the future. And in most of those scenarios, there's a serious booga-booga element of rampant violent street crime... it ain't necessarily so.

[joelcolorado]

Its so obvious that many ppl do not understand how it is to face ppl who do not CARE what you think or what you say. If you had served in a war theater, you get a feel for that. there are ppl who will kill you just because they can. That is obamas mistake too, along with all liberals. They think they can appease the terrorists.

You cannot deal with crazy. All you can do is prevent them from impacting your world. That usually takes killing them as they are unchangeable.