[Byron100]

I'd like to start a discussion about the end of the Automobile Age, which will surely occur sometime this century. Buses, trucks, planes, farm equipment, all of those will prolly survive the century, if only in isolated locations, but I just don't see the private automobile being used in any sort of fashion once we're well down the peak.

I'd love to hear some opinions on when this might take place, and how it will take place...a sudden end to car use due to a major crises, or a slow trickle in the level of car ownership and use as fuel gets ever-more expensive. How will the "ex-middle class" society react to just a few rich driving cars as they please on government-funded roads that only benefits them? Do you favor laws that would greatly reduce car ownership and use, in order to make society more equitable for everyone (this is a biggie for me )?

Anyhow, as far as the poll goes...the guideline I'm using is 90% drop-off of 2000-level car miles driven...when you think this will take place by.

[Jack]

I picked 2035.

The problem will be road maintenance; there are already issues with bridges. When tax revenues start to decline, while demands for police and welfare services expand, maintenance will be deferred. At some point, we'll actually need a Hummer I Alpha.

Not that we could afford it...

[Kylon]

I don't think the automobile will ever stop existing short of a nuclear holocaust.

More likely only the extremely rich and the military will have access to automobiles.

Also, automobiles may still exist for a larger constiuency, but they might be small electric vehicles which you can load onto trains, and are used for intercity traveling. THere might also be electric tractors which can be used on the farm.

So I say "until human civilization crumbles". THat's my vote.

[lawnchair]

Jack is right about the collapse of the highway system. But, it seems to be accelerating.

In most of the US, fuel taxes are based on cents per gallon, not a percentage of the sale price.

There is very little interest in letting that tax rise. In fact, politicians are stepping over themselves to eliminate it. Actual gallons used are stagnant (a side-effect of slowly increasing MPG).

Meanwhile, asphalt, concrete, steel, and diesel to run paving equipment are all tied to inflation and at staggering record highs.

There are more lane-miles of road than ever, and weathering continues apace. Also, a lot of the initial Eisenhower-era buildout of the interstate highway system is hitting 50 years old, now, and *many* of those bridges had a 50-year design life. I know my state has had to divert quite a bit from smaller upkeep projects to these bigger ones.

Minor city streets in particular, by my personal observations, are going to hell in a handbasket fast. Private paving (parking lots) even worse.

[bodigami]

It should be "The Demise of the ICE - A Timeline"

[Byron100]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ook at it this way, 2035 is 27 years away. Look back 27 years to 1981. Not a great deal of transportation evolution since then. This does not bode well for the future.

[mistel]

People have to commute, as is so often said here on Peak oil, America is built around the car. So the only logical solution is there will be high-mileage cars in the future. Would you care how much gas cost if you drove a 300 MPG Aptera? Look for a lot of similar cars in the future.

Also, at some point, people will just convert cars to electric and buy panels to charge them. Some people are doing that already. I met a guy last week who is looking to build an electric car to charge from his panels as he has excess electricity. I have a car up on blocks right now in my driveway that I am converting to electric. I don't care about charging it from panels as it will be so cheap to run, I don't mind paying the dollar or so it will cost to charge up.

I know everyone poo poo's the idea of electric cars, but when the masses find out how cheap they really are, there will be a huge shift. I will spend about $5,000 to convert my car with off the shelf parts. It is a 1996 Saturn.

[eastbay]

I picked 2020, but I doubt if they'll be on the road that long other than for military, police, and the very wealthy (if we haven't rendered them parasites extinct by then).