[seahorse]

First, I understand the debates here between the "doomers" and optimists (aka Oilfinder and KTH). I understand that OF and KTH argue the market will solve PO decline issues.

My problem with the optimist case has been two fold, but namely, that an ignorant American public, acting through their Gov't, will not allow the market to work and will lash out and make the problem worse, leading most likely to the resource wars predicted by Michael Klare. This is my worse case scenario.

Already, my "worse case scenario" is quickly unfolding with this recent runup in oil prices. Just this week, we have seen Congress vote to sue OPEC and now a threat by a Congress woman to nationalize our own oil companies.

Congress Votes to Sue Opec

Threat to Nationalize US oil comanies

The US Congress is even considering passing legislation to stop speculating in oil/commodity markets to try and bring down prices (as if this can be done in a global economy, as if no one but Americans are speculating).

Resource Investor

A culture built upon ignorance on energy issues and living an unsustainable lifestyle built on over consumtion is only leading to ignorant responses - all the above responses are futile attempts to cap the prices of oil and "legislate" or litigate cheap oil based on ignorance of the issue. These are attempts by an unsustainable culture to sustain that unsustainable culture. As Cheney so aptly said, "The American way of life is not negotiable."

Energy Bulletin

Ironically, we now see the heart of capitalism, America, refusing to allow market forces to drive cultural change. If we, as a culture, refuse to recognize change and allow market forces to work, where will we end up?

It does make one wonder if what happened to the people on Easter Island could happen here. As one person said, what were the people on Easter Island thinking when, living on an island, they cut down the last tree? Or the Vikings that starved to-death in Greenland bc they refused to realize their lifestyle was unsustainable. So, surely most problems are solvable, but sometimes certain cultures exhibit an ignorance which apparently renders them incapable of responding to changing conditions. I wonder, then, if American culture will prove itself to be capable of changing to changing conditions or will simply fade away.

[GHD]

Hi,

I agree. This is my first post here but I've been lurking awhile. I live in Canada and this morning on the radio the announcers were having a debate on whether the government should lower the gas tax in response to rising prices.

I am seeing so much blame and anger and lashing out in response to this problem, and it's still just the beginning; prices aren't high enough to force any real behavior changes yet, it's just griping still. I think all the blaming is reflective of our society as a whole and our collective lack of desire to take responsibility for anything. Democrats blame Republicans, Republicans blame Democrats, blacks blame whites and whites blame blacks, and in the meantime real causes of problems don't get addressed and we just create more hate. I'm really worried about the maturity level of civilization in terms of what it means for how we cope with this crisis.

We need to be speaking the truth about what's happening. It's not the government's fault for having a gas tax, it's not OPEC's fault for not raising output, it's not the speculators' fault for buying up futures, it's not China's fault for modernizing their society (they still use HOW much less energy per capita than we do? It takes real nerve to try blaming them!). It's the collective fault of society as a whole for not addressing this problem when there were clear warning signs for decades. But even blaming society as a whole won't help any.

Here we are now, and we need to look at peaceful solutions. If those solutions mean powering down and cutting back severely on our standards of living, let us at least do it with some dignity, not killing each other on the way down. I think the best chance we have for this happening is to speak the truth -- when you hear a myth about why oil prices are high, tell the truth -- that there's just not enough left to continue life as is. The more people that hear the truth, the more people there will be who understand, and the better our chances of going into this with our heads held high.

[TheDude]

I'm reading Tainter at the moment. Having parsed the situation we're in and the bottom-up solutions for a while I'm ready to go back and look at the broader picture - which ain't good.

Politicians are in a sense subhuman. Even one you might respect and that strives for ethically laudable goals has to talk out the side of their mouth on a daily basis. I'm not surprised to hear a slew of thoroughly ludicrous solutions proposed to high fuel prices, which could be debunked with five minutes of research - which few will bother to do. In their defense you could hardly expect them three years ago to insist on mandates for automakers to implement lines of PHEVs, or that municipal governments should be given tax incentives to develop mass transit - even in the name of building a better society, or combating GW, even. And you'd get laughed at for declaring that these steps need to be taken in the face of inevitable declines in the oil supply, which all government agencies say won't happen for decades. I'm pretty amazed we have have Roscoe in there. How does he do it? Wonder what his opponents' attack ads are like?

Cornucopians will tell you that we need to game the market to make a sustainable civilization profitable. Try reading that with a straight face!

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'a')n ignorant American public, acting through their Gov't, will not allow the market to work and will lash out and make the problem worse,

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', '
')I used to be pretty strongly free market, but I have to say that there are gaps in this system. Example: attitudes toward pollution

[eXpat]

Maxine Waters wants to nationalize U.S. oil industries!!! HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHa, what happened to the free market champion? to the advocates of duress to the countries that where nationalizing their own oil companies?. This is a joke. I guess that watching oil prices go up is taking his toll in the brains of several people.

[Cog]

The Maxine Waters video was hilarious. I thought of many funny responses that the CEO's could have shot back at her with. Just goes to show, that the Congress with a few rare exceptions, do not have a clue and will be less then worthless when this all unravels.

[copious.abundance]

Suing OPEC, threatening to nationalize oil companies and threatening to limit the actions of speculators are not the actions of "optimists" and free-marketers, they are the actions of "pessimists" and statists. If some members of congress feel that OPEC is the only remaining source of large amounts of oil and thus can/should be sued if the price of oil goes too high, I would call them "doomers," not "optimists." If they were true optimists they wouldn't care what OPEC did because they would understand that the free market can find oil and energy elsewhere.

[Jack]

I agree with your concerns. As you observed previously, I am becoming darker in my views.

Let us consider your statement: "A culture built upon ignorance on energy issues and living an unsustainable lifestyle built on over consumption is only leading to ignorant responses."

We are not merely ignorant of energy issues; we are ignorant of all issues. We are, as a nation, sinking into a swamp of illiteracy. We lack any familiarity with numbers. Numerous people cannot understand the concept of compound interest; can we expect them to grasp the trouble with exponential growth?

Although we suffer from ignorance - deep, comprehensive ignorance - we possess limitless self esteem. This is a formula for utter destruction.

Of course we will face the same fate as the people on Easter Island or the Norse Greenland colonies. How could it be otherwise? What physical or intellectual capital do we retain, which we can tap during a time of future need?

In truth, our problem is not peak oil. No - the problem is within us. We could work together, build together, and overcome this adversity. We will not. We will be at each other's throats, ripping and tearing. We will demand someone to blame, and we will be provided a target for our hatred. Ironically, our diversion of effort will hasten our collective demise.

Those with young children should make a point of giving them some happy memories. They'll need them.

[seahorse]

OF, you misunderstand what I'm saying. I'm not saying that the American people are optimist who are acting ignorantly. What I'm trying to say is that you, an optimist on this board, believe that market forces will react and solve any problems caused by a decline in oil production. I don't believe this. I don't believe this bc the facts, thus far, show that an ignorant American culture will not allow market forces to work. Thus far, anyway, we see an ignorant American culture lashing out trying to preserve their "nonnegotiable way of life" by destroying market forces. For example, trying to eliminate commodities trading (in vain), talking about nationalizing oil companies, talking about eliminating summer gas taxes, talking about sueing Opec, subsidizng ethanol, Congress questioning oil company execs about their profits (and not other industries), talking (locally in my area at least) about raising excise taxes on gas exploration etc. Even in a broader picture, the US is trying to bailout homeowners and lenders who made bad loans which only shows that Americans will fight to preserve their unsustainable way of life rather than let market forces drive necessary cultural change.

Thus, I don't share your optimism that market forces will ever act to change an unsustainable way of life for Americans, bc Americans, who ironically claim they are capitalist, will not allow market forces to operate.

[dohboi]

Seahorse, what a wonderfully nuanced postition--probably too nuanced for most even on this forum to get.

GHD. Welcome to the forum. Quite an impressive first (or third?) post! I liked particularly this plea to the deaf winds: "Here we are now, and we need to look at peaceful solutions. If those solutions mean powering down and cutting back severely on our standards of living, let us at least do it with some dignity..."


What a great hope. Do you see any chance that we will be this mature, collectively?

And I would advise every one to note that Jacks outlook is getting darker. This from someone with one of the darkest outlooks on the forum! This is not a good sign!

[copious.abundance]

seahorse,

I think I see what you're saying. However, you seem to be saying that the public won't let market forces work . . . but you also don't seem to think that they would work even if all these subsidies and restrictions were lifted?? (because you said you don't think "that market forces will ever act to change an unsustainable way of life for Americans"). So I'm still not exactly sure what your stance is - do you think market forces should be let free, or do you think they should be reined in???

Though I can see your point in complaining about the US public not letting market forces work, it is my view that, even with sub-optimal (restrictive) policies and public "ignorance," market forces nevertheless find a way to work. If politicians, through restrictive drilling policies for example, create an oil production peak before it otherwise would have happened, then the price will just rise prematurely, and the public will react however they would have under alternative policies - they just would do it sooner. Or, if politicians try to eliminate commodities trading (with consequences we cannot guess at), or if they sue OPEC, or do all sorts of other counterproductive things which only make things worse, the public will, once again, simply react however they would had these policies not been implemented - they just would do it sooner.

Here's a perfect example: Let's say you guys are right, and the price of oil *really is* rising due to decreasing/tight supplies and we're near or past peak. You seem to be saying that the public would resist this, somehow. But, alas, they aren't . . . they're doing exactly what you would expect them to do. If congress sues OPEC, taxes oil company profits, or does all sorts of other counterproductive things, you'd only see an acceleration of that. Basically, I think it's impossible to truly resist market forces: If you try to nudge things one way, it will budge the other way.

[seahorse]

I hate to hijack my own thread, but Jack made a good observation which was this:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e are not merely ignorant of energy issues; we are ignorant of all issues. We are, as a nation, sinking into a swamp of illiteracy.

[seahorse]

OF,

In time, you are probably right that market forces would act regardless of attempts to legislate around the market forces. My concern is an irrational American public would choose to go to war first, which is my worse case scenario, oil/resource wars. I am one who believes that Iraq was the first of the oil wars. I do not believe it will be the last. Iran is a future hotspot that I'm concerned about. One could also argue that Nigeria is an ongoing oil war. Further, the specter of more oil wars looms even in South America. Look at the constant escalating tensions between the US and Venezuela, Venezuela/Columbia, Venezuela/Exxon, the recent mobilization of the new US 4th Fleet off the coast of America, etc.

So, if resource wars do not develop, I would agree that ultimately market forces will change American/western culture, all cultures, despite any attempts to sustain an unsustainable culture legislatively.

[hardtootell]

Hey GHD,


What are the five stages of loss? Denial, anger, bargaining,depression,acceptance. i was kinda hopin the herd would stay in denial a bit longer...
Get ready
another Canadian



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GHD', 'H')i,

I agree. This is my first post here but I've been lurking awhile. I live in Canada and this morning on the radio the announcers were having a debate on whether the government should lower the gas tax in response to rising prices.

I am seeing so much blame and anger and lashing out in response to this problem, and it's still just the beginning; prices aren't high enough to force any real behavior changes yet, it's just griping still. I think all the blaming is reflective of our society as a whole and our collective lack of desire to take responsibility for anything. Democrats blame Republicans, Republicans blame Democrats, blacks blame whites and whites blame blacks, and in the meantime real causes of problems don't get addressed and we just create more hate. I'm really worried about the maturity level of civilization in terms of what it means for how we cope with this crisis.

We need to be speaking the truth about what's happening. It's not the government's fault for having a gas tax, it's not OPEC's fault for not raising output, it's not the speculators' fault for buying up futures, it's not China's fault for modernizing their society (they still use HOW much less energy per capita than we do? It takes real nerve to try blaming them!). It's the collective fault of society as a whole for not addressing this problem when there were clear warning signs for decades. But even blaming society as a whole won't help any.

Here we are now, and we need to look at peaceful solutions. If those solutions mean powering down and cutting back severely on our standards of living, let us at least do it with some dignity, not killing each other on the way down. I think the best chance we have for this happening is to speak the truth -- when you hear a myth about why oil prices are high, tell the truth -- that there's just not enough left to continue life as is. The more people that hear the truth, the more people there will be who understand, and the better our chances of going into this with our heads held high.

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'S')uing OPEC, threatening to nationalize oil companies and threatening to limit the actions of speculators are not the actions of "optimists" and free-marketers, they are the actions of "pessimists" and statists. If some members of congress feel that OPEC is the only remaining source of large amounts of oil and thus can/should be sued if the price of oil goes too high, I would call them "doomers," not "optimists." If they were true optimists they wouldn't care what OPEC did because they would understand that the free market can find oil and energy elsewhere.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'S')uing OPEC, threatening to nationalize oil companies and threatening to limit the actions of speculators are not the actions of "optimists" and free-marketers, they are the actions of "pessimists" and statists. If some members of congress feel that OPEC is the only remaining source of large amounts of oil and thus can/should be sued if the price of oil goes too high, I would call them "doomers," not "optimists." If they were true optimists they wouldn't care what OPEC did because they would understand that the free market can find oil and energy elsewhere.

[yesplease]

How are you defining "opposite"?