[PenultimateManStanding]

There was a poll in the Depletion Economics forum at the beginning of this year. So now we're 4 1/2 months into the year and damn near everybody's predictions have already been blown out of the water. And all those folks are peak oil aware! I imagine the Daniel Yergins of the world are starting to feel a disconcerting tenseness in their throats and having trouble sleeping at night. So roccman had it at 400, sjn in the 600's and everybody must have thought they were a bit extreme. Hell, even those guys may have just been engaging in a bit of theatrical hyperbole back then. It's beginning to look not so theatrical. My guess is that as each week passes, buyers are finding themselves more and more pitted against increasingly desperate shortages of offers because the demand/supply balance is gone. It only takes a little bit of imbalance to cause a price increase. But what if the commodity is vital to sustain life? What if nobody stops bidding until they lie down exhausted and die? If that's the current real situation, then next month oil could be rising $1.50/day, the next month $2.75/day and so on. Then sjn's prediction could be blown out of the water, too. Remember the Law Of Doubling: the last round of consumption consumes as much as the entire prior history of consumption. It looks like we're there.

[roccman]

Thanks PMS

And if I recall correctly...our guesses were not even averaged in b/c it "would blow the curve".

Since the "averaging" trick I stopped reading that thread.

Guess the "experts" had it well covered.

[PenultimateManStanding]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', '
')And if I recall correctly...our guesses were not even averaged in b/c it "would blow the curve".

[DantesPeak]

POsters memmel and dohboi also deserve many kudos for not only predicting runaway energy prices - but clearly explaining why, although they may not have contributed to the price challenge.

As I posted in the Housing collapse thread, there is a possibility of a dollar collapse brought on by the doubling of energy prices in one year.

Needless to say, we don't know where oil will end up in that scenario. Still I am not yet sure that we will have hyperinflation yet, but I think it's more likely than not. A sudden broad collapse in the economy may avert it.

[Aaron]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')uess the "experts" had it well covered.

[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')uess the "experts" had it well covered.

[PenultimateManStanding]

Just a little personal side note: tomorrow night my eldest daughter is treating me and her siblings to a night at the local new San Diego Ballpark. It's been there for a few years and was built at great expense. I've never been there and I'm looking forward to experiencing it even if our local team has fallen from grace (great pitching, bad hitting, slowest team in MLB). She has told me, "Dad, I love it when you talk about history or movies, but I hate it when you talk this doom and gloom stuff." What are you to do?

[BigTex]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')uess the "experts" had it well covered.

[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')uess the "experts" had it well covered.

[bodigami]

The price has to increase by 300% to get to $400, in 7 months. Let's wait it out... I'm keeping my prediction at $160 high. 2009 through 2012 will however be different. And after 2012 it will get more personal, with population growth turning negative (die-off).

[dinopello]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', 'J')ust a little personal side note: tomorrow night my eldest daughter is treating me and her siblings to a night at the local new San Diego Ballpark. It's been there for a few years and was built at great expense. I've never been there and I'm looking forward to experiencing it even if our local team has fallen from grace (great pitching, bad hitting, slowest team in MLB). She has told me, "Dad, I love it when you talk about history or movies, but I hate it when you talk this doom and gloom stuff." What are you to do?

[sjn]

Thanks PMS! Memmel has long been posting at TOD about what amounts to oil production net energy considerations. Combined with Jeffery Brown's export land model any readers there should have been able to develop the mental framework to at least foresee the possibility of prices going hyperbolic in the short term, along with the inherent feedbacks into the value of the dollar, receding horizons and disruption to society at large. We've covered these topics (amongst others) pretty thoroughly here too over the years, anyone who allowed their mind to realistically assess the interaction of the issues addressed here should have recognised the possibility.

I'm now just spending this time enjoying myself with the company of attractive young women! There isn't too much time left now before life becomes a daily struggle for each of us. At least we've had a heads-up, most of the sheeple around here are going to be a little surprised!

My biggest fear is where we go from here. Are we going to completely decimate our environment in a vain attempt to deny the inevitable?

[zzzpeakoil]

Is this topic for good?

Roccman and Sjn are the lamest predicters. They are currently situated as the last predicters in the PO price challange.

Don't be silly. They are not making predictions based on scientific and ecomomial calculations, they're getting their numbers out of their ass. They WILL end up in the bottom of the scoreboard for this year. 400$ is impossible and stupid.

[PenultimateManStanding]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zzzpeakoil', ' ') They WILL end up in the bottom of the scoreboard for this year. 400$ is impossible and stupid.

[Kingcoal]

What poll was this? Please provide a link.

[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zzzpeakoil', 'I')s this topic for good?

Roccman and Sjn are the lamest predicters. They are currently situated as the last predicters in the PO price challange.

Don't be silly. They are not making predictions based on scientific and ecomomial calculations, they're getting their numbers out of their ass. They WILL end up in the bottom of the scoreboard for this year. 400$ is impossible and stupid.

[dinopello]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kingcoal', 'W')hat poll was this? Please provide a link.

[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zzzpeakoil', 'I')s this topic for good?

Roccman and Sjn are the lamest predicters. They are currently situated as the last predicters in the PO price challange.

Don't be silly. They are not making predictions based on scientific and ecomomial calculations, they're getting their numbers out of their ass. They WILL end up in the bottom of the scoreboard for this year. 400$ is impossible and stupid.

[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kingcoal', 'W')hat poll was this? Please provide a link.

[PenultimateManStanding]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', ' ')PMS is saying the people that predicted $400 and $600 dollars a barrel are correct and should be congratulated.

It seems a bit like making a prediction of a 20-0 blowout in baseball and declaring victory when it is 4-0 in the 3rd inning. Could be right, but it is still very possible that the person that picked 5-0 as the final score could be right?