by MrBill » Wed 06 Feb 2008, 12:19:55
Ah, it is good to see posters refer to The City as The Square Mile. In the Globe & Mail last year some junior banker refered to Bay Street as The City. I had to laugh about that one! Do they go around calling Hog Town The Big Apple, too? ; - ))
To be honest my theory is that banks are taking the losses because they have made loads of money over the past years; they have large loan loss provisions; they can afford to; and they are trying to get all their dirty laundery out in the open now; so that if non-performing loans do not turn out as bad as expected that they can surprise on the upside later in the year. This may be simply wishful thinking on my part.
However, I am very worried about the losses tied to an imploding housing market and the credit crisis by non-bank financial institutions; private hedge funds; and investors that are not typically required to disclose their marked to market positions, and that can report non-trading assets at book-value instead.
Then you have a Japanese banking problem where non-performing loans were hidden from view for as long as possible, but it became a long-run drag on earnings as those losses ate into future profits.
Therefore, I would be very worried about the losses that are not turning-up at non-banks because they were the ones that were buying all the risk and asset backed securities that the banks did not want on their books. Where is that risk now?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ONDON (Reuters) - Whether the European Central Bank likes it or not, Europe's banking system is in serious difficulties with a spreading credit crunch that will test and may finally break policy-makers' resolve to hold interest rates.
Source:
Dysfunctional banks may force eventual ECB cut:Speculation that HSBC could bid for Soc Gen, and then move their HQs to Paris. That would be a hole in London's reputation. However, the chance of an investment bank actually moving from the lightly-regulated UK to a more invasive regulatory - and high tax - environment like France are probably slim to none despite any commercial logic such a merger might bring to HSBC.
As for RBS being in trouble? They still seem keen to expand into new markets, so maybe they just don't know they have run-off a cliff, yet, so their legs and feet are still running? Their merger with ABN Amro seems to becoming apart at the seams? ; - )
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ega mergers are almost always fuelled by three things: egos, conceit and a deep-seated need for power.