Not jaded in the sense of "all hope is lost" but in the sense that no one really knows exactly what would happen when oil demand starts to outpace oil production.
Just like there's no magic bullet solution to stop the oil crisis, I also believe there is no certainty of what is going to happen aside from a few superficial things.
We can theorize all we want but in the best predictions, we can only speak in generalities. I'm giving up reading articles on how to prepare Mad Max-style for the consequences. Our society is too complex for most people to accept the perils of peak oil, and therefore it is also too complex to help us pinpoint what kind of societal changes peak oil will bring about in the future.
The only thing I can be certain with is that it will affect capital costs in many industries. And at the least that's all I will attempt to counteract.
I don't think it is harmful to project long-term effects on peak oil, but at this point I will not consider most of these projections to be sure bets.
PeakOil is You
I think I've become a "jaded doomer"
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I think I've become a "jaded doomer"
by ccricers » Wed 06 Feb 2008, 02:38:27
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ccricers - Wood
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Re: I think I've become a "jaded doomer"
by Nano » Wed 06 Feb 2008, 07:15:04
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ccricers', 'W')e can theorize all we want but in the best predictions, we can only speak in generalities.
You're exactly right. The only thing we can be certain of is uncertainty. Which is why people who are just not interested in Peak Oil have a very good point. Given the extreme complexity of our globalised society and the murkyness of the future, it most probably really doesn't matter if you are aware of Peak Oil or not.
If you are carefull about your spending, carefull about keeping your job or your business and carefull about maintaining your relationships with your family, friends and community then you have as good a chance as anyone to survive and prosper, whether your worry and think about Peak Oil or not.
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Nano - Lignite
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Re: I think I've become a "jaded doomer"
by kokoda » Wed 06 Feb 2008, 07:45:52
I consider myself a realist more than a doomer.
First of all I don't believe anyone can say with any certainty when oil production will peak. It may have already happened or it may not happen for another decade or more.
If it is far enough into the future there may be time to do something. If it has aleady happened then we are probably screwed.
First of all I don't believe anyone can say with any certainty when oil production will peak. It may have already happened or it may not happen for another decade or more.
If it is far enough into the future there may be time to do something. If it has aleady happened then we are probably screwed.
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kokoda - Coal
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Re: I think I've become a "jaded doomer"
by Cloud9 » Wed 06 Feb 2008, 08:46:47
Unless you walk out in the back yard and shoot yourself, the end will probably not come as expected.
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Cloud9 - Intermediate Crude
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Re: I think I've become a "jaded doomer"
by ohanian » Wed 06 Feb 2008, 09:27:35
Da problem with waiting for the end of the world
is that the world takes a bloody long time to end!
is that the world takes a bloody long time to end!
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ohanian - Heavy Crude
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Re: I think I've become a "jaded doomer"
by Heineken » Wed 06 Feb 2008, 10:48:19
It's pointless to consider this subject only from the perspective of oil. Doom is charging at us from many corners; set against some of them, the oil shortage is a relatively minor problem (although certainly significant).
"Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---I & my bro.
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---I & my bro.
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Heineken - Expert
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Re: I think I've become a "jaded doomer"
by jlw61 » Wed 06 Feb 2008, 11:12:02
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ccricers', 'J')ust like there's no magic bullet solution to stop the oil crisis, I also believe there is no certainty of what is going to happen aside from a few superficial things.
We can theorize all we want but in the best predictions, we can only speak in generalities. I'm giving up reading articles on how to prepare Mad Max-style for the consequences.
We can theorize all we want but in the best predictions, we can only speak in generalities. I'm giving up reading articles on how to prepare Mad Max-style for the consequences.
You are absolutely right! I reached that point a few months ago. IMHO there is no good way to prepare Mad-Max style other than to acknowledge that it could happen (though unlikely) and have a simple to remember plan of action that can be quickly carried out should things tip seriously in that direction.
Yes, the world is screwed in so many ways right now... only a mass die-off (them first, if you please) or a brand new set of technologies can forestall the oncoming brick wall. That or have the governments of the world wake up and start working for the betterment... sorry, I can't possibly it with a straight face.
No matter what scenerio the world heads (soft landing, mad max or something inbetween) there will be countries, states, cities and communities that are far better or worse off. It all depends on the leadership, ingenuity, local resources and the ability to cope.
I update my scenarios periodically, study new and old technologies, garden, stock the larder in a sane manner and buy a limited amount of certain items that I hope to never need. Beyond that I'm trying to live life, love my family/friends, and work for the best outcome possible. My granddaughter will hopefully appreciate my efforts.
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Re: I think I've become a "jaded doomer"
by KillTheHumans » Wed 06 Feb 2008, 11:15:55
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ccricers', 'N')ot jaded in the sense of "all hope is lost" but in the sense that no one really knows exactly what would happen when oil demand starts to outpace oil production.
You mean....like when peak oil happened a few years back? I would disagree with the premises....peak oil happened, sneak a peak out your front door and watch the results. We know EXACTLY whats happened for the first couple of years past peak because its history.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ccricers', '
')
I don't think it is harmful to project long-term effects on peak oil, but at this point I will not consider most of these projections to be sure bets.
I think its quite reasonable to project long term effects. And Doomers aren't any better at predicting the future than economists and cornocopians are, far from sure bets most are wild flights of fantasy.
I would say just keep an eye peeled, its easy to miss the changes as we live through the middle of them. Tyler has been spotting some of the interesting changes related to renewable electrical generation, the Olympic Dam ore body is a nice piece of info ( checked out the spot price of uranium ore lately....quite a big drop ), fuel cell cars starting to hit the streets of LA, and a year from now another round of primarily non gas powered cars hitting the streets of America...it might have taken 4 years since Peak happened....but things, they be a changin.
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KillTheHumans - Tar Sands
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