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$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he wheels may be wobbling and a few clouds may be gathering on the horizon for market bulls, but the bandwagon that seems to be taking headline crude oil futures relentlessly towards a watershed $100 per barrel level carried on purposefully last week. Critically, the peak oil debate that has started to frame the current rally in crude futures attracted new data to consider on November 2.

A Platts survey showed third-quarter global production of oil liquids at seven key publicly traded international majors declined 6% from last year, with output down 664,000 b/d at a time when some officials are calling for increased production from OPEC.

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The implications of the data appear more complicated than indicated by the raw numbers. For example, the largest producer, ExxonMobil, said a reduced share of actual production from African entitlements were to blame for its 4% downturn in the quarter. Excluding those special factors, ExxonMobil said its liquids output actually would have risen 3%. Besides ExxonMobil, the Platts review focused only on liquids production comparisons for integrated majors BP, Shell, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Eni and Marathon Oil. It determined those companies reported collective liquids output of 10,338,000 b/d for the quarter ended September 30, down from 11,002,000 b/d in the same period a year ago.

Liquids production fell at six of the seven companies and stood flat at Chevron, leaving Barclay's Capital analyst Paul Horsnell to question the ability of the international oil companies to respond to increasing demand and pricing. "Barclays Capital has taken a very deadbeat view on non-OPEC supply growth in recent years, mainly due to our view that the rate of decline in mature fields was being underestimated by consensus," said Horsnell, responding by email from London to questions. He added: "The weakness appears consistent to us with what has been a long period of output under-performance."

Platts

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A Platts survey showed third-quarter global production of oil liquids at seven key publicly traded international majors declined 6% from last year, with output down 664,000 b/d at a time when some officials are calling for increased production from OPEC.
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