[oilluber]

Can Dantes/Pupp weigh in on this question ??
Why is oil not correcting this shoulder season ??
is it going to correct in the next few weeks ??
What is the difference between this year and last year ??

thanks again.

[Kaare_Mai]

Shoulder Season:


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')The shoulder season is a little known term for a fairly straightforward concept. If you avoid visiting a destination at the same time as the rest of the crowds, prices are cheaper and your holiday is bound to be more enjoyable. The shoulder season falls at the start and finish of the high season, and many hotels, flights and holidays are reduced in price to tempt people to travel at slightly different times.

[AirlinePilot]

If you believe we are post Peak, or at least close to Peak production, the normal price cycles will go out the window. What was a normal swing up or down due to seasonal demand and refinery pressures or maintenance, will no longer apply.

Many predict volatility which gets worse with time at or after the Peak. I suspect we are entering that phase and the swings in price will get worse and more expensive over time as more and more folks who are in denial begin to see what is really going on. I have sunk a bit of money into this and so far things are going well as I have for once in my life accurately jumped in at the right time.

The only thing you can count on going forward is that what has gone on in the past probably wont apply anymore.

We are entering a brave new world.

[DantesPeak]

What Airline Pilot said is correct.

I can (and will) give you specific reasons why the price is rising right now [see the Weekly Inventory Report thread for specifics]. However like AP said, we are moving past peak. I want to also state that it's very important to note that peak light sweet crude happened back about the summer of 2005. This is a double whammy. Not only have refining problems multiplied using lower quality crude, but more oil is used up exploring, processing, and distributing oil.

In other words, the availability of oil products is declining faster than any shoulder season decline.