[Roccland]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ave we entered the downslope?

Over at The Oil Drum recently, Ace, one of their contributors, made the following comment:

"According to IEA, current Peak Oil (total liquids) is potentially 86.13 mbd on Jul 2006. One year later, production in Jun 2007 was 84.3 mbd, which is a drop of 1.83 mbd or just over 2%/yr. This is a bigger drop than I have forecast! I hope that Jun 2007 was just an unusual month."

This is a shocking observation! While the world twiddles its collective thumbs, while the dark recesses of the human brain scream that what is happening cannot be happening, here we have this odd little fact sticking out at us.

Ace again raised this issue near the bottom of the July 30th Drumbeat section. It was again met with either raw silence or incredulity from those that saw it. Hopefully Ace will be posting more soon on his bottom up analysis which now points to peak liquids as possibly having passed by already.

This is fairly serious because if the decline rate now, at the very beginning of the downslope is 2% when it is supposed to be at its mildest, just how bad is it going to get? If 2005 was peak C&C, and if 2006 was peak liquids, and if 2% is the current decline rate at the start of the downslope, then all bets are off people. The peak decline rate may soar into the double digits somewhere, perhaps 10% to even 20%. Right now it's all a rather large crapshoot but the preliminary data do not support the happy faced crowd at all.

This fall is looking more and more like a period of initial shock and awe as nature may begin to assert real limits against a rapacious humanity. And if that happens, there is no telling what reactions will be like around the world. The race may be on for the remaining global resources and that race will not be a free market race at all. Instead it will be a military race with all that this implies.

[Roccland]

Actually, for those just joining the PO rave...it is brand new.

I have read every one of Stuart's posts and reports...have printed and distributed hard and electronic copies to my clients.

You are correct that stuart, FF, Euan, west texas etc have all developed the baseline for this summary.

As MSM mentions PO...people are gonna want to know what the bottom line is currently...this post gets them there.

I don't think I said it was "breaking news".

[jboogy]

Starting about a year ago I noticed the forecasts getting shorter and shorter regarding the downslope,two years ago peak was 2012 or 2020,we ARE starting down the other side, I forget who said peak was going to be thanksgiving 2006 but it appears he was right.Strap in ,things are about to get bumpy.

[Roccland]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'H')ey Roccland. You are alert. Now what are you doing personally for yours?

[Roccland]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jboogy', 'S')tarting about a year ago I noticed the forecasts getting shorter and shorter regarding the downslope,two years ago peak was 2012 or 2020,we ARE starting down the other side, I forget who said peak was going to be thanksgiving 2006 but it appears he was right.Strap in ,things are about to get bumpy.

[joewp]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jboogy', 'S')tarting about a year ago I noticed the forecasts getting shorter and shorter regarding the downslope,two years ago peak was 2012 or 2020,we ARE starting down the other side, I forget who said peak was going to be thanksgiving 2006 but it appears he was right.Strap in ,things are about to get bumpy.

[Roccland]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jboogy', 'S')tarting about a year ago I noticed the forecasts getting shorter and shorter regarding the downslope,two years ago peak was 2012 or 2020,we ARE starting down the other side, I forget who said peak was going to be thanksgiving 2006 but it appears he was right.Strap in ,things are about to get bumpy.

[joewp]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roccland', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jboogy', 'S')tarting about a year ago I noticed the forecasts getting shorter and shorter regarding the downslope,two years ago peak was 2012 or 2020,we ARE starting down the other side, I forget who said peak was going to be thanksgiving 2006 but it appears he was right.Strap in ,things are about to get bumpy.

[TheDude]

Well, you could take the Saudis at their word that they don't want to overproduce for fear of damaging their fields. Or that they could produce ample extra oil but we need additional refinery capacity to handle it in all its sourness. Saudis have said in the past that the world needs more refineries most of all.

Bit of Devil's Advocacy for ya, there. It's already old news that light sweet has peaked, what more does anybody need to know? Plenty, apparently.

Anybody have a link to the last few years of LSC production? Haven't had any luck finding one.

Also the demand destruction caused by high crude prices has put the kibosh on poorer countries' consumption, anyway, maybe taking some of the slack off for the richer parts of the world.

Deffeyes announcing that we would peak on Thanksgiving was rather witty.

[Roccland]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roccland', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'H')ey Roccland. You are alert. Now what are you doing personally for yours?

[gg3]

Roccland, don't be so quick to judge or so harsh, especially where you don't understand the conditions on the ground.

The region Pstarr is in, is hardcore progressive libertarian, where people understand cooperation and understand how markets work. "I have beef, you have vegetables, let's trade." No need for everyone to grow their own vegetables and their own beef. No need for everyone to be individually self-sufficient as a jack of all trades and a master of none, when they can specialize as needed and become masters of their chosen trades.

The region will also still continue to function as a representative democracy after the poo hits the propeller. It has all the right ingredients for that.

Our group is headed up to the same region as soon as we have a few more details tied down. Pstarr is ahead of us by a decent amount in that he's already established up there.

Don't underestimate the value of a strong community around you.

[mmasters]

Nah, we're just plateauing right now. In the next year or two we'll start flirting with the downslope. At that point then things will begin to get hardcore.

[Eli]

I am going to track you down Pstar me and my minions and we are all going to claw are way onto your life boat. Well maybe not, good luck with your house.


The question of the downslope is impossible to know for certain, we have to know what is really going on KSA. They have been cutting exports for awhile, and I am betting they are actually in serious trouble.

[Eli]

The only way to see where we are at and even then it is not a certainty is for the huge draws in oil to continue well into the 3 quater like PUp55 suggests.


We won't know that we are absolutely completely screwed until we are.

[eastbay]

Nah, we're just plateauing right now. In the next year or two we'll start flirting with the downslope. At that point then things will begin to get hardcore.


I agree. Although things are already hardcore for many, generally speaking, the nice ride still has quite a ways to go.