[return1880s]

http://www.oilcrash.com/articles/arnett05.htm


I am a pessimist and even I am not this pessimistic! I have been reading alot about peak oil and don't know what to make out of this. Dad doesn't believe one word of what I told him. He thinks there will be enough oil for another 100 years and even if not, alternate energies will take care of that. I told dad that alternative energies will at best account for 2% of our current energy needs.

Jobs won't matter in a few years unless you are a farmer or some other trade neccessary for basic survival. There is no point in me getting a job. I am self employed but I estimate the internet will be history by 2012. Money won't matter by then, only food, cloth and shelter.

[eastbay]

We will, yes, be returning to the 1880's, but only ever so briefly. We will cruise past that date at full speed heading to and passing through the far, far more distant past landing hard at a point somewhere between ancient Neanderthals and more contemporary aborigines.

[I_Like_Plants]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', 'W')e will, yes, be returning to the 1880's, but only ever so briefly. We will cruise past that date at full speed heading to and passing through the far, far more distant past landing hard at a point somewhere between ancient Neanderthals and more contemporary aborigines.

[return1880s]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', 'W')e will, yes, be returning to the 1880's, but only ever so briefly. We will cruise past that date at full speed heading to and passing through the far, far more distant past landing hard at a point somewhere between ancient Neanderthals and more contemporary aborigines.

[Micki]

First the bad news.
If things get as bad as they could, no way we can return to 1880's as there has been a population explosion supported by cheap energy (green revolution etc).

On the positive side (kidding...just less negative)
Oil and other energies will be around for a long while so I place myself in the 1984 (with high crime rate) camp rather than the MadMax camp as I think society and goverments will continue to exist.
I think we will see a very looong recession/depression that will have short economic rallies as demand sometimes drops faster than supply (thus creating corrective rallies that can last months).
At some point in time (could a 1000 years for all I know) a bottom will be formed and progress will start again, possibly in a world very different from the current.

I am not a subscriber to the Olduvai theory either, but I believe there will be a long term contraction of population as there will be limited food supplies and less medical care and poverty (preventing you from eating even if there is food.)
Technology and inventions however don't disappear overnight so I believe we will be technologically better off than 1880 even if we completely ran out of oil.

Also, a large population in China managed to survice quite will without cars and western standard health care.
And look at all the other under developed countries, they haven't died off.
This is one reason why I don't believe in a cliff event with massive die-off.

[eastbay]

Oh and we will still have the knowlege of how to make technology, just no resources to put it in action. But won't we have a small amount of alternate energy to run a bit of technology?

One thing is certain. After economic collapse, social and political structures will no longer be available to support complex human constructs anywhere close to what we experienced as recently as in the 1880's.

But then again, who really knows. We'll all find out soon enough. Readers here know basically what to do to be as prepared as possible for just about any collapse outcome.

[Battle_Scarred_Galactico]

Its' missleading to think of 'returning' to the past. It will be totally uncharted waters.

One thing that won't be the same will be the population.

[Cyrus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Battle_Scarred_Galactico', 'I')ts' missleading to think of 'returning' to the past. It will be totally uncharted waters.

One thing that won't be the same will be the population.

[wisconsin_cur]

I would anticipate a lot of variation. The Gaza Strip = Mad Max. South Dakota might be able to arrest its descent somewhere short of that. However we get there, however, it will be one bumpy ride!

[Judgie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Micki', '
')Also, a large population in China managed to survice quite will without cars and western standard health care.
And look at all the other under developed countries, they haven't died off.
This is one reason why I don't believe in a cliff event with massive die-off.

[benzoil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('return1880s', 'T')here is no point in me getting a job. I am self employed but I estimate the internet will be history by 2012. Money won't matter by then, only food, cloth and shelter.

[manu]

After the dust has settled and 3/4 of the population is gone I would say that it will be something like the 1880's. Depending on the area. Some electricity may be in some areas, small water generators ect. I think to make it to this point as an individual you will have to be strong spiritually, otherwise you may become mad or end up in shock.

[Jellric]

I think an 1880s level of technology is possible depending on how the power-down plays out. This is a strange thing to say, but I hope that the die-off comes mainly in the form of a plague. Because if we have an all out nuclear war so much infrastructure will be destroyed that when the smoke clears we would find ourselves in something like a Middle Ages standard of living and technology.

Remember what their public sanitation was like back then and the resultant disease? That would bring about yet another die-off until population stability is reached.

Pray for the plague if you want a decent level of technology remaining.

[eastbay]

Pray for the plague...

Hey, maybe if we can get all of us here praying for plague.... and then everyone we know.... then everyone on earth all at once praying for a really nasty plague, we can minimize the scope of this looming disaster.

[strider3700]

I'd pray for the plague but I'm thinking my chances are better in the event of nuclear war. Plague comes down to genetics mostly. Nukes come down to location, prepping and a lot of luck. I can't change my genetics and haven't tested them against serious disease before...

[return1880s]

I hope we get neither. Its best for the dieoff to be from starvation, injuries and local disease then the survival of the fittest can reign. This holds true for animals, it should be the case for humans. Those who have genetic anormalities or even just weak and obese will be the ones to go.

What kind of technology did we have in the 1880s before the oil age? I expect that we will be back to this level. I don't understand why anyone says we will be back to AD 1200 or something. There is technology and medicine that we know that wasnt the case long ago. No peak oil can ever erase our memories of modern technology.

Does anyone think we will retain some technology? If we know how to make alternate sources of energy with positive eroei, we may be able to power a small amount of tech. I hope medical and health stays. I can do without TVs, phones, computers and other "toys" but please leave medicine in.

How much of our current energy needs can be met with alternatives? How much would a kilowatt of energy escalte to once fossil fuels are so scarce that alternate energy becomes cheaper?

[Micki]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')ts best for the dieoff to be from ...local disease then the survival of the fittest can reign. ...Those who have genetic anormalities or even just weak and obese will be the ones to go.
...
I hope medical and health stays. I can do without TVs, phones, computers and other "toys" but please leave medicine in.

[Lore]

As said, population is the problem. There are too many people that will end up with worthless skills and no way to extend them while trying to live in 800 sq/ft apartments.

Don't worry so much though, your young and can for quite sometime deal with most of the issues. It'll be a slow grind not a sudden slide. While speculation may be fun, the bottom line is you can never imagine just exactly how it will all end up.

[return1880s]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Micki', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')ts best for the dieoff to be from ...local disease then the survival of the fittest can reign. ...Those who have genetic anormalities or even just weak and obese will be the ones to go.
...
I hope medical and health stays. I can do without TVs, phones, computers and other "toys" but please leave medicine in.

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '1')) Current “all liquids + NG” depletion rates running at 15% per annum