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WTI oil price down 4% !

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WTI oil price down 4% !

Unread postby scienceteacher » Tue 29 May 2007, 14:58:11

So what's up with that - oil 4% down and we've gone over the peak! Something's not right is it gentlemen?
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Re: WTI oil down 4% !

Unread postby roccman » Tue 29 May 2007, 15:10:06

I think it speaks directly to Peak Sweet CRude.

Brent is commanding a higher price because it is sweet.
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Re: WTI oil down 4% !

Unread postby Dajm » Tue 29 May 2007, 15:43:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shannymara', 'B')rent is also down substantially today.


And so is Gasoline, 230.900 rigth now, hard to understand what´s going on. Maybe the market is very nervous and this is just some kind of overreaction. Will be seen tomorrow if prices climb back up.
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Re: WTI oil down 4% !

Unread postby Merlin » Tue 29 May 2007, 15:57:53

Brent and West Texas crude are both light, sweet premium grade oils. I found the following explanation on another board:

Countdown to $100 oil - more expensive than it appears

The article asserts that the Brent price is more representative of world oil prices and offers reasons why.
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Re: WTI oil down 4% !

Unread postby scienceteacher » Tue 29 May 2007, 16:08:10

Yes Merlin, you wizard you! But Brent's down too, twit!
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Re: WTI oil down 4% !

Unread postby sylviah » Tue 29 May 2007, 16:16:33

This article: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1180450 ... lenews_wsj

says it's because a new president was elected in Nigeria. And he called for a ceasefire with MEND and MEND is considering it...

Good news. But hey, despair not, doomers, there's still hurricane season coming up.
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Re: WTI oil down 4% !

Unread postby diogenes » Tue 29 May 2007, 16:46:09

Every time the oil price diminishes by a couple of dollars, people come out of the woodwork arguing that peak oil is a myth. It doesn't work like that, people: the name of the game is "volatility," and volatility is what we've got. A $2 loss (to $68 a barrel!) is nothing.
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Re: WTI oil down 4% !

Unread postby Merlin » Tue 29 May 2007, 16:53:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('scienceteacher', 'Y')es Merlin, you wizard you! But Brent's down too, twit!


My post attempted to explain the difference in price between Brent and WTI. It's not because one is light, sweet and the other is not. However, markets don't usually move in straight lines. Prices fluctuate. As for Brent being "down," since early March, Brent has risen around $9 a barrel.
Brent crude prices
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Re: WTI oil down 4% !

Unread postby roccman » Tue 29 May 2007, 16:55:22

"says it's because a new president was elected in Nigeria. And he called for a ceasefire with MEND and MEND is considering it... "

Just slays me that MSM can tell us why things happen...

When 9 warships entered the PG a few days ago...oil should have shot to the moon... if one believes an event like MEND considering a cease fire had a 4% effect....not

MEND has been at this a long time...they have an agenda...and a new prez will not a concession make.

If the new prez effects their agenda - they will continue the fight.

In my view the markets are confused and paranoid...fundamentals amount to not much anymore...

white knuckled economics [.]
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Re: WTI oil down 4% !

Unread postby DantesPeak » Tue 29 May 2007, 17:09:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', '"')says it's because a new president was elected in Nigeria. And he called for a ceasefire with MEND and MEND is considering it... "

Just slays me that MSM can tell us why things happen...

When 9 warships entered the PG a few days ago...oil should have shot to the moon... if one believes an event like MEND considering a cease fire had a 4% effect....not

MEND has been at this a long time...they have an agenda...and a new prez will not a concession make.

If the new prez effects their agenda - they will continue the fight.

In my view the markets are confused and paranoid...fundamentals amount to not much anymore...

white knuckled economics [.]


MEND recently hinted that they would settle down as the President took over.

My theory is that the price drop today had more to do with the expiration of the June futures contract on Thursday than any other reason. Apparently inventories are still piling up in the vicinity of the Cushing, OK where oil bought under futures contracts is delivered. Refinery outages in that area continue.

Related to this was the fact that the DOE had clearly planned to buy 11 to 20 million barrels of oil for the SPR from April through the summer. The SPR is also in the same general area where futures contracts are delivered. However the DOE decided that not buying SPR oil would help push gasoline prices down, so they cancelled all plans to buy oil through the summer. Combined with the refinery outage problem, this may have left some oil companies with a lot more oil in Cushing than expected. Since oil is now being imported in by pipeline from Canada to this area, we have a glut in Cushing.

However it would be a big mistake to think this was any more than a temporary situation, because if it’s not a temporary situation and oil isn’t refined into gasoline soon around there, the price of oil elsewhere in the world is going to soar to record levels by this summer when gasoline shortages in the US develop, and refiners try to get gasoline elsewhere.

Oil may go up anyway with a hurricane or a new Mideast war.
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
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Re: WTI oil down 4% !

Unread postby Lore » Tue 29 May 2007, 18:42:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('diogenes', 'E')very time the oil price diminishes by a couple of dollars, people come out of the woodwork arguing that peak oil is a myth. It doesn't work like that, people: the name of the game is "volatility," and volatility is what we've got. A $2 loss (to $68 a barrel!) is nothing.


Yes and the opposite is true too, every time it goes up.

Your right about volatility, this is to be expected when you’re balloon is bumping along the ceiling, about to go out the window. Come back in 6 months and everyone will be talking about the same thing. However, 24 months or so from now could be a different story, hurricanes and international conflicts aside.

There are predictions by some that the DOW could see 15,000 the first quarter of 2008. Maybe so, but wait till the bubble pops as it will and must in this global economy. My best guess is sometime after the China Olympics.
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Re: WTI oil down 4% !

Unread postby greenworm » Tue 29 May 2007, 19:05:30

The price is predicated on what buyers and sellers determine it to be, not peak oil. Sorry. Volatility is due to massive selloffs and buyins and has no correlation to a peaking as well. You guys sure are enjoyable to read sometimes.

BTW, the year to get into oil was 02/03, do you realize how late you are?
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Re: WTI oil down 4% !

Unread postby basil_hayden » Tue 29 May 2007, 19:09:52

And you call yourself a science teacher....

What science - self-esteem class? How to step on folks like Merlin?

It's down because of refining bottlenecks and full crude storage.

Don't worry, that will be all used up in a few months and it will be business as usual again, no need to get your knickers in a twist.

Maybe a minor in common sense would have helped.
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Re: WTI oil down 4% !

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 29 May 2007, 21:09:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('scienceteacher', 'S')o what's up with that - oil 4% down and we've gone over the peak! Something's not right is it gentlemen?


Oil Plunges More Than $2 on Signs of Adequate U.S. Fuel Supply

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ay 29 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil plunged more than $2 a barrel in New York on signs that U.S. gasoline supplies will be adequate to meet summer demand and after Nigerian oil workers ended a strike.


Link
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Re: WTI oil down 4% !

Unread postby IslandCrow » Wed 30 May 2007, 05:11:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ne swallow does not a summer make


It has been stated numerous times that as supplies get tight we should expect volatility. If you look at discussions on business news you will see that they often use 'moving averages' to discuss wether a particular day's movement is significant or not.

A 4% drop would only bring the price near to the 20 day moving average (the index I use to follow oil prices. Note: I do not trade oil so I am not betting my own money here...and therefore this has less weight than say MrBill's comments). Volatility is picking up, but on my 10-day index (sum of daily % moves) we have a way to go to reach the volatility seen late Janaury early February.

So a single 4% change is significant if you are in daily trading, but it does not really affect the long term trend much.
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