[Newsseeker]

According to Matt Simmons on the Financial Newshour (http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2007/Simmons.html) it is unlikely that supply will increase this year but it is likely that demand will increase by 1-2 mbpd. He predicts that it is likely there will be gasoline shortages this summer. Personally, I think this is likely too. What do you think?

[Pablo2079]

Wouldn't take much to cause the shortages. A hurricane here, refinery fire there......

It will be interesting to watch. Good reason to keep your tank above 1/2 all the time.

[Eli]

Well it has already happened in Denver.

If we do see gasoline shortages there is going to be a serious hoarding problem that will magnify any shortage. I remember before Katrina seeing people fill up massive tanks of gas.

[SevenTen]

I think shortages will be sporadic this summer, a little less frequent than during Rita and Katrina. Unless there's an "event", which I would classify as:
* a Katrina-like system
* a major refinery fire
* chaos in Iran
* actual or staged attack on American interests

One of these things happening means more frequent shortages than with Katrina. Two means shortages are widespread. Three or more and I will be irritated.

[sameu]

for me the next big question is, assuming the fact we have peaked, when will the markets realise this, panic and crash?

like colin campbell once said in an interview, when they realise oil production is in irreversible decline, virtual every stock on the market is de facto overvalued, cause the're won't be any growth

afterall now the markets can still say 'yeah whatever, for as much as everybody knows, peak could be away for 10 or 20 years'
but when there is indisputable evidence, the truckloads of shit hit the fan

[Eli]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sameu', 'f')or me the next big question is, assuming the fact we have peaked, when will the markets realise this, panic and crash?

like colin campbell once said in an interview, when they realise oil production is in irreversible decline, virtual every stock on the market is de facto overvalued, cause the're won't be any growth

[sameu]

yes agreed, but at a certain point you just can't say or hope that the situation is only temporarily
at a certain point something has to snap, right?

[Eli]

Oh yeah I agree 100%

Something is going to snap and this summer could be very bad. Reasonable people talking about gas shortages being a possibility even without major disasters is not a good thing.

I was just trying to make the finer point that many people in the markets will never accept the fact that the world has started down the other side of PO. They will hold to the idea that we can increase oil production if we just throw more money at it. It will be very hard for them to come to terms with the geology of the problem.

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sameu', 'y')es agreed, but at a certain point you just can't say or hope that the situation is only temporarily
at a certain point something has to snap, right?

[I_Like_Plants]

Oh yeah for any old damn reason, real or imagined.

The system is at its limit, and of course our Way Of Life is based on growth no matter what, so of course we'll be pushing to use more gas this summer than any earlier summer; 'Merkans are doing their part and using more gas than ever despite higher prices. We even moved Daylight Savings Time to earlier in the year to stimulate the economy and get people out there driving sooner.

Guess I'd better go get that bike......

[Eli]

Lets not focus too much on Merika here, there is whole world out there.

Coming in today I was listening to the radio and they were talking about how foreign trade was keeping the US economy strong despite the problems with housing. They were pointing out that foreign growth was still going strong.

We are in a very different world now, it used to be that a weakening US economy would sink oil. Now, every bit that we don't use is sucked up by China and India.

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', 'L')ets not focus too much on Merika here, there is whole world out there.

[128shot]

I want to see some heavy gas shortages. Just out of interest.


That, and I am looking forward to our new vehicle of choice.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('128shot', ' ')I am looking forward to our new vehicle of choice.

[128shot]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('128shot', ' ')I am looking forward to our new vehicle of choice.

[Eli]

Actual gas shortages will be freaky.

There will be lots of reports of gas hording and probably gas whoring, like that ole bumper sticker "ASS,Grass or Gas".

I am seriously looking at building an electric bike with the new Crystalyte Phoenix motor. A bike with one of those can do 36 mph and go 10 miles or more on a charge. If LifePO4 batteries could be put on it you can double that range.

[128shot]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', 'A')ctual gas shortages will be freaky.

There will be lots of reports of gas hording and probably gas whoring, like that ole bumper sticker "ASS,Grass or Gas".

I am seriously looking at building an electric bike with the new Crystalyte Phoenix motor. A bike with one of those can do 36 mph and go 10 miles or more on a charge. If LifePO4 batteries could be put on it you can double that range.

[I_Like_Plants]

I just put money down on a beautiful bike, will go pick it up tomorrow.

I wonder, battery pack + motor + some stuff to rig it up to drive the front wheel Velo-Solex style...... that would be the most hilarious Bianchi Pista in town!

[pea-jay]

I'm gonna have to say no. The US economy is still strong enough to call supplies in from abroad. Still, if we had another set of hurricanes, we could see more spot shortages like in 2005.

Serious gas shortages need to wait for that serious year over year decline in oil or a major ME war, neither of which have occured yet.

[I_Like_Plants]

Yes, good point.

When we can't call in supplied from abroad, well..... that's the situation wartime Japan ended up in, wartime Germany, South Africa, etc.

The world at large would be pretty much justified in maintaining an embargo against us. At the rate things are going, when they can, they will.