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oil prices to rise

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oil prices to rise

Unread postby toolpusher » Thu 30 Nov 2006, 01:13:19

the u.s. dollar has just made a downside breakout on the weekly chart, after a long sideways move and a previuos "dandruff" formation.

this is bullish for oil prices. since the u.s. is a huge consumer and importer (this is why the dollar is going down, the twin deficits are killing it), it is putting huge pressure on oil sellers to choke down more and more fiat dollars.

at what point will they vomit and say, jesus christ, we can't take it any more, our production is declining and u are using printing-press produced processed pulp paper to pay us for our non-renewable product, help!

oil stocks made huge gains today, but i would look to buy the commodity. some day, the stocks will be exposed as the wasteing asset that they are, although that day could be yet some way down the road.
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Re: oil prices to rise

Unread postby Zardoz » Thu 30 Nov 2006, 02:16:51

It's already up to $62.43. Look for $67 by the end of the year, $73 in March, $80 next summer.
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Re: oil prices to rise

Unread postby PolestaR » Thu 30 Nov 2006, 03:11:12

Apparently heating oil stocks in the US are drawing down causing the price increase. At least that's what the "news" is saying here. Always have to find a reason other than "peak oil fear". ;)
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Re: oil prices to rise

Unread postby oilfreeandhappy » Thu 30 Nov 2006, 15:51:28

Up over $63, and rising.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061130/oil_prices.html?.v=9

A number of us discussed how oil prices were artificially manipulated prior to the election, to try to bring in votes. For one thing, the Fed tapped the Strategic Oil Reserve, and lowered storage levels.
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Re: oil prices to rise

Unread postby nth » Thu 30 Nov 2006, 16:48:05

Oil prices will drop down below $58 before it will hit $65.
Angola joining OPEC will be big news and will help rally oil prices at end of year and beginning of next year. Angola joining OPEC means they will get a production cap. Remember this is one of the regions that we are supposed to see lots of new production. Well, those productions will not see full production if they join OPEC.

Rumor has it if they join, they will be capped at 2mbpd. That is a nice half a million more than current rate. But, well below Optimists who think they can produce close to 2.5mbpd or higher.
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Re: oil prices to rise

Unread postby Dreamtwister » Thu 30 Nov 2006, 16:51:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', 'O')il prices will drop down below $58 before it will hit $65.


I'll believe that when I see it.
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Re: oil prices to rise

Unread postby davep » Thu 30 Nov 2006, 16:56:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', 'O')il prices will drop down below $58 before it will hit $65.


Is there any point in watching every dip and rise of the price of oil? Neither is a counter-argument or proof for peak oil. So long as the price trend continues upwards (which it will do) we will witness the inevitable results of peak oil.
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Re: oil prices to rise

Unread postby nth » Thu 30 Nov 2006, 16:57:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dreamtwister', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', 'O')il prices will drop down below $58 before it will hit $65.


I'll believe that when I see it.


Yeah, I bet you are with the group who would never predicted oil prices to fall to the mid $50's during second half of this year.
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Re: oil prices to rise

Unread postby Pablo2079 » Thu 30 Nov 2006, 16:58:19

Not that there is a direct relationship between crude prices and gas, but I noticed that gasoline was up almost 9% today (11/30).

Nymex Gasoline Future price 181.91 change 14.85 % change 8.89

http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
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Re: oil prices to rise

Unread postby nth » Thu 30 Nov 2006, 17:02:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '
')
Is there any point in watching every dip and rise of the price of oil? Neither is a counter-argument or proof for peak oil. So long as the price trend continues upwards (which it will do) we will witness the inevitable results of peak oil.


What has my price prediction got to do with PO?
People were predicting oil prices, so I put my 2cents.
No matter what, Angola joining OPEC is huge news.
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Re: oil prices to rise

Unread postby davep » Thu 30 Nov 2006, 17:05:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '
')
Is there any point in watching every dip and rise of the price of oil? Neither is a counter-argument or proof for peak oil. So long as the price trend continues upwards (which it will do) we will witness the inevitable results of peak oil.


What has my price prediction got to do with PO?
People were predicting oil prices, so I put my 2cents.
No matter what, Angola joining OPEC is huge news.


I wasn't having a go. It just seems self-evident that in the context of Peak Oil, there will be fluctuations in both directions while the overall trend will be upwards. I was quoting you to make a generic point.
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Re: oil prices to rise

Unread postby Dreamtwister » Thu 30 Nov 2006, 17:12:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dreamtwister', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', 'O')il prices will drop down below $58 before it will hit $65.


I'll believe that when I see it.


Yeah, I bet you are with the group who would never predicted oil prices to fall to the mid $50's during second half of this year.


Nonsense. It is an election year. A drop in oil prices was a no-brainer.
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Re: oil prices to rise

Unread postby Cobra_Strike » Thu 30 Nov 2006, 17:15:00

The rise/fall of prices keeps staying in a trading range...however the bottom/top of that range keeps going up, this is expected, so what? The price will go up/down/up, that is established...The only real question at this point is purely academic, when is/was the peak? That is the only important news.
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Re: oil prices to rise

Unread postby Dreamtwister » Thu 30 Nov 2006, 17:22:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cobra_Strike', 'T')he only real question at this point is purely academic, when is/was the peak? That is the only important news.


As far as I'm aware (and I may be wrong), December 2005 is still the high watermark.
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Re: oil prices to rise

Unread postby Cobra_Strike » Thu 30 Nov 2006, 17:45:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dreamtwister', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cobra_Strike', 'T')he only real question at this point is purely academic, when is/was the peak? That is the only important news.


As far as I'm aware (and I may be wrong), December 2005 is still the high watermark.
And, as that does indeed seem to be the case, we are getting to see TSHTF :D

Housing market is getting the rug yanked out from under it....everything is going swimmingly (from the global warming).

Fun fun fun times they are.
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Re: oil prices to rise

Unread postby KevO » Thu 30 Nov 2006, 20:04:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', 'O')il prices will drop down below $58 before it will hit $65.


well it's at $64.42 as I write.
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Re: oil prices to rise

Unread postby Retsel » Thu 30 Nov 2006, 20:31:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s far as I'm aware (and I may be wrong), December 2005 is still the high watermark.


I am no expert on Peak Oil, but I have been following this topic for a couple of years now. I remember reading something earlier this year by Daniel Yergin of Cambridge Energy Associates saying that he knows of over 10 million barrels of oil/day coming on line by 2010. This suggests that we have not peaked yet. Of course, while this new oil is coming on line, our demand will continue to increase and many oil fields will continue to decline which would keep oil prices high.

If we have indeed peaked then perhaps this new oil coming on line means that the peak will be a flat peak lasting for many years. Of course, the rising price of crude oil will tend to flatten out any peak.

What is also interesting is that have read that Iraq has the capability to increase production by 10 million barrels of oil/day. Thus while Bush went into Iraq primarily to facilitate the increase in oil production (I assert), what may end up happening is that the U.S. action there will force the oil supply to peak earlier than what was possible.

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Re: oil prices to rise

Unread postby Micki » Thu 30 Nov 2006, 20:50:37

Besides optimistic statements, is there any evidence to back up the claims?
2X10 million bbl/day is quite a lot.

Iraq would have to increase their production with more than 500%That would suddenly make them the worlds largest oil producer.

I have learnt to take what Yergin says and my cat craps and put in the same bag. He's not even funny anymore.
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Re: oil prices to rise

Unread postby Zardoz » Thu 30 Nov 2006, 20:52:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Retsel', '.')..Daniel Yergin of Cambridge Energy Associates...

Hi. Welcome to the forums.

Around here CERA is "the C-word" to most of us. Those folks are even honored with their own debunking thread:

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic25090.html
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Re: oil prices to rise

Unread postby Dreamtwister » Thu 30 Nov 2006, 22:00:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Retsel', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s far as I'm aware (and I may be wrong), December 2005 is still the high watermark.


I am no expert on Peak Oil, but I have been following this topic for a couple of years now. I remember reading something earlier this year by Daniel Yergin of Cambridge Energy Associates saying that he knows of over 10 million barrels of oil/day coming on line by 2010. This suggests that we have not peaked yet. Of course, while this new oil is coming on line, our demand will continue to increase and many oil fields will continue to decline which would keep oil prices high.


Ignoring CERA's rediculously optimistic projections for a second, whether or not CERA's predictions prove to be accurate remains to be seen. As it stands now, December 2005 is still the highest recorded production of which I am aware (85.3 Mb/d IIRC). Will we exceed that figure? I don't know. But we have not exceeded it yet, which is the point I was trying to make.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Retsel', 'W')hat is also interesting is that have read that Iraq has the capability to increase production by 10 million barrels of oil/day.


10 Mb/d increase for Iraq? That would put it at around 12Mb/d. Saudi Arabia doesn't even produce that much, and may never do so. 3 Mb/d is "extremely optimistic", but 12 Mb/d is a fantasy figure. Like... "I just had a threesome with Lexa Doig and Kristin Kreuk" fantasy. Seriously, whomever told you that figure was flat-out lying.
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