[nwildmand]

being that peak oil could be considered a conspiracy and would be prone to attracting people who are easily susceptible to them i got curious. many people around here are speaking of the oil prices being rigged for the republicans all over the forums.

ill hit you up for debate later. i like being on the attacking end.

[nwildmand]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Raphael', 's')o this is the fluff people like to discuss?

[peaker_2005]

I wouldn't be surprised if there's some manipulation going on. Nothing surprises me these days.

[mekrob]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'b')eing that peak oil could be considered a conspiracy and would be prone to attracting people who are easily susceptible to them i got curious. many people around here are speaking of the oil prices being rigged for the republicans all over the forums.

[nwildmand]

of course i share the same sentiments as mekrob and pstarr. but we still have twice as many votes saying its being manipulated.

where is the proof? i need proof before i believe in something. nobody here belived in peakoil before having some proof shoved in there face.

if there is no proof provided for me i will have to come to the conclusion that people who have this view are gullible and not very intelligent.

[seahorse2]

My answer, I don't know.

However, history is full of manipulations. There is certainly political motivation to get prices down before the election, bc all the polls show that the biggest or second biggest kick in the _ss to the Republicans are the high fuel prices.

So, there is political motivation, the next question is, is it possible to manipulate prices? I think so, simply bc of what Rockdoc used to complain about on these boards. Sorry, no links to his post, but he continually complained of high oil prices being due to speculators. If speculators can increase prices, it would be possible to decrease prices. Last year, Congress tried to have hearings on price manipulation, you might all remember that the Oil execs refused to testify under oath. Interesting. We definitely have a current administration that is full or oilmen and women (Condi).

Is there manipulation of current oil prices? Who knows. The recent news release of the deep water find in the Gulf by Chevron sure has a hint of being politically motivated. First, it was actually discovered in 2004. So, why the re-release of the info now? Several commentators have speculated it is politically motivated either to the upcoming elections or to Congress debating the off-shore drilling, maybe both.

So, I end by saying that it certainly is possible. Is it happening, I don't know and don't think anyone will ever know for sure.

[BigTex]

The market was overbought because of all the crazy events in the summer. Now it's pulling back. End of driving and air conditioner season has enhanced the pullback.

It's comical how much the major oil companies' stock has fallen in the last few days. These companies would be doing just fine if oil was at $50 a barrel.

A cold snap, a few cruise missiles and some more innocent people killed and it will start back up again.

[nwildmand]

does anybody have a [b]good[/b] graph of oil prices for the last 5 years? there should be some history to back the claim up. by the thinking that oil should have come down before the elections in 2002 and 2004.

has saudi arabia stepped up production every other november?

has the government dumped a couple million barrels of oil to dropp the price?

come on, one of you has to have some proof?

[uNkNowN ElEmEnt]

I don't need to know the pedigrees of horses to recognize a jackass when I see one.

[nwildmand]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('uNkNowN ElEmEnt', 'I') don't need to know the pedigrees of horses to recognize a jackass when I see one.

[uNkNowN ElEmEnt]

Actually, I believe its called a comparison. I was drawing a comparison between two disparate topics to better state my oppinion about a comment someone made. I didn't enter into any speculation... at all. I never even said what I thought caused the drop in oil prices.

[Tyler_JC]

Oil price being manipulated?

First, what would it cost to do something like that?

The total value of the world's oil production every year is somewhere in the neighborhood of $1.5 trillion.

In the two months before the election, the world's oil market is, in effect, $250 billion dollars.

If you want to manipulate a market and cause a massive price swing (20% or more), you probably need to have assets worth at least 10% of that market. Otherwise, the world's other players will be able to take advantage of your illogical market position (read, manipulative market position.)

Think about that claim for a moment. If I want to make the price of oil artificially low, I have to put a lot of sell orders out there. If the world doesn't follow suit, I will lose my shirt.

So controlling 10% of the market is a laughably conservative estimate.

But let's pretend that The Powers That Be want to lower oil prices by 20% to give themselves a political advantage. Are they really willing to risk losing 25 BILLION dollars to do it?

What happens if a few of those powerful people decide to make a short term profit and undercut their peers?

And oil futures are not shares of Exxon stock. In 10 years, the October 2006 contract of oil will be in the history books...but Exxon will still be a company and you will collect a very hefty dividend payout in that 10 years, not to mention the possible increase in the value of your investment.

So there is a possibility that TPTB could end up losing BILLIONS of dollars in order to lower oil prices.

Now, how much of a political advantage does oil at $60 instead of $75 buy them? Maybe 3%-5% of the electorate? Probably less?

Now, if you take one hundred million dollars and buy advertizements you will swing probably the same number of voters with zero risk. Also, you will be free from the possible legal consequences of manipulating the commodities market.

So would you rather risk billions and possibly have nothing to show for it or spend a couple hundred million the legitimate way and accomplishment the same result?

Remember, if TPTB don't lose money on the manipulation, the price of oil will sky rocket up the minute that the manipulation stops (have you ever seen this happen?)

Also, remember that the VAST majority of the players in the oil market don't actually want the oil showing up at their door. Meaning, the real size of the oil commodities market is much larger than my $1.5 trillion figure. I could be off by a factor of 10!

I'm sorry, the math just doesn't make sense.

If they wanted to manipulate prices, it would be MUCH easier to lie about oil inventories and claim that we have a multi-million barrel extra stockpile. This can be done by moving oil out of the SPR (or just lie about the whole damn thing) and calling it additional "inventories".

But as for direct manipulation of the NYMEX? Not a snowball's chance!

[Tyler_JC]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nwildmand', 'd')oes anybody have a good[/b] graph of oil prices for the last 5 years? there should be some history to back the claim up. by the thinking that oil should have come down before the elections in 2002 and 2004.

has saudi arabia stepped up production every other november?

has the government dumped a couple million barrels of oil to dropp the price?

come on, one of you has to have some proof?

[uNkNowN ElEmEnt]

Oh for crying out loud guys! we go through this everytime there's an election. Do we really have to rehash it? again??

[jeffvail]

There's been a lot of discussion about manipulation of oil prices in the build-up to the mid-term election, both on this site and elsewhere. Mostly it's been conjecture, with very little discussion of theories on how this is actually happening, or evidence to that effect. I've written an article HERE brainstoriming how one could drive down prices, along with some evidence of this (or at least of "coincidences").

Does anyone else have thoughts, theories, or actual evidence (even if only circumstantial) that this is going on?

[jeffvail]

I agree with Tyler that it would cost too much to use a political war chest to influence the markets by buying and selling the actual end commodity--but if a simple administrative regulation can change the price at no cost and gain 0.5% of the electorate as a result, that's the best single political move that will be made this entire fall...

[ColossalContrarian]

I think the usual culprits as stated many times on this site like end of busy driving season, lack of hurricanes in the Gulf this year, and Iran being more cooperative definitely have a lot to do with the current price drop but I still think some manipulation is taking place. My guess for the new floor to be $70 a barrel has been shattered and now everyone in my family teases me for my ridiculous obsession with the VERY REAL but easily hidden oil crisis…

[Carlhole]

Just from being idly news-aware in a general way, I would say that that the oil price decline of late has been largely due to

(1) A slowing of the US and (probably) world economic growth somewhat. This creates larger inventories, at least until the next spate of rapid growth.

(2) The Iranians have caved somewhat to demands to halt their nuclear enrichment process and some of the war-fear factor has been driven out of the price per barrel.

(3) The hurricane season does not look remotely as threatening as last year's cycle.

(4) Hoarding of oil and contracts had been a brief phenomenon earlier in the season. That appears to be at an end for now, creating selling pressure.

(5) Speculation and hedge-fund involvement has always been an oft-cited factor in recent prices. Profit-taking could easily be part of the recent price drop.

(6) News of the GOM discovery may have allayed fears regarding the lack of large new discoveries and that could have effected the market-price, somewhat although anyone who reads in detail about the GOM prospects should not feel very comfortable about that 15 billion barrel figure being thrown around not the ease with which even a fraction of that amount can be extracted.