[SoothSayer]

The Greater Toronto Airport Authority called Tradeport and Hamilton's political efforts to block the construction of an airport in Pickering misguided.
"The effect of Peak Oil is minimal," Mr Shaw said. "There are huge improvements in the efficiency of airplanes. Air travel is here for the next 30 to 40 years."

Comments? Link

[Wildwell]

Current aircraft (I'm thinking Dreamliner, new Airbus) are about at their limit of efficiency without massive redesign. The aviation industry has made aircraft a lot more efficient from the late 1950s onwards, there's not much more than they can go.

The industry, as a whole is pretty efficient and lives and dies on wafer thin margins.

[paoniapbud]

No way. This will be one of the first industries to go away. People are smoking some serious crack if they think air travel will last forty years. They just don't understand how much fuel those puppies burn, regardless of efficiency. Higher efficiency inevitably leads to higher total utilization.

[NeoPeasant]

Goodbye Southwest, hello Greyhound. A loaded Greyhound bus gets over 300 passenger miles/gallon. A loaded jetliner passenger mileage is comparable to a car with one or two occupants.

Today we are wealthy but short on time. We will pay more to save time. In a post-peak depression we will be poor with a lot of time on our hands. We will travel by the cheapest method, no matter how long it takes.

[Sys1]

"Air travel is here for the next 30 to 40 years."

I heard the same fairy tale regarding... oil.

[TorrKing]

Probably more likely that only 1 - 2 % of the current air travel is done in 2021.

Torjus Gaaren

[Jack]

I believe that Mr. Shaw is whistling his way past the graveyard, trying to convince himself that the fearsome scrabbling emanating from the long dark shadows is just the wind...yes, just the wind, fretfully blowing against a branch...and the hairs bristling on his neck, why that's just because of the chill in the air, even though the thermometer says 85...but it does feel cold, suddenly...

Yes, just whistle that merry little tune. It's only the wind...and step a little faster...and don't look back....it's just the wind....


On a more serious note, Mr. Shaw's statement that there will ANY decline is significant. What industry admits that it will shrink? This is the sort of mental shift we've been waiting for. Whether society (us included?) is ready for the implications of that shift is another question.

[waegari]

Mind you, he's not saying it will be here forever, he's saying " It is here for the next 30 to 40 years." Any real believer in aviation would have shrugged it off, had he been absolutely sure of himself, and of his business.

He's feeling the cold wind already.

[shortonoil]

I’ve presently got a running $100 bet with several friends and other people that 90% of the world’s major air carriers will be out of business within four years. Of course, I’ve got a piece of information that I have so far failed to share.

[airstrip1]

Bloomberg was running a story this morning that fuel now accounts for 26% of airline costs.

Airline Fuel Costs

I can not see that figure declining any time soon. The new Airbus may increase efficiency on long haul flights but a lot of those savings are going to be dissipated because of its reliance on the hub and spoke model to get its passengers to their final destinations. The airlines have been hacking away at their labour costs for over two decades now and I do not think that there is much more money to be squeezed out of that source. On some of the budget airlines passengers are now doing virtually all the baggage handling and check ins themselves. Short of getting them to build and fly the airplanes I do not know what else can be cut. Sooner or later the price of tickets is going to have to reflect the true cost of flying and that must impact on passenger numbers.

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', 'O')f course, I’ve got a piece of information that I have so far failed to share.

[shortonoil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ny chance of some hints being dropped????

[Exponent]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('airstrip1', '.').. Sooner or later the price of tickets is going to have to reflect the true cost of flying and that must impact on passenger numbers.

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', 'T')here are variables that appear to effect Hubberts Curve that have not generally been considered...I am reluctant to publish until my work can be checked by other people...More to come.

[shortonoil]

.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') think we can safely assume that this is not going to be good news.

[kam30en]

They'll continue to build airports, highways, parking garages, mcmansions, super-suburbs, giant SUVS and yachts up until the collapse. Just like on Easter Island, we will build our stone heads until we cut down the last tree, than anarchy will ensue and we'll topple the heads for forsaking us. Whoever says we're an advanced species hasn't studied our dismal relationship with nature.

[airstrip1]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Exponent', '
')While the flight industry isn't exactly identical to the automobile industry, I will point out that some people thought that higher gas prices would definitely cut into the amount of driving people do. What seems to be the case, though, is that overall, customers are willing to pay extra to maintain the same level of convenience. Regardless of whether they can afford it, even, it seems.

Perhaps to some degree this will happen with flying as well. People who are use to being able to afford flying around will simply keep on doing so, paying and complaining the whole way.

[AirlinePilot]

Shorton oil,

Im with you on this. While I dont have a mathematical background, Ive been part of this industry for over 17 years now. I think it may happen sooner depending on the rates of oil price increases. I would be very interested in your ideas. I also have a few big bets with some colleagues on the potential demise of air travel.

I think we will try and salvage something with a nationalized system here in the US though as it may be key to maintaining a viable economy before total collapse. maybe you could PM me?

[Gazzatrone]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kam30en', 'T')hey'll continue to build airports, highways, parking garages, mcmansions, super-suburbs, giant SUVS and yachts up until the collapse. Just like on Easter Island, we will build our stone heads until we cut down the last tree, than anarchy will ensue and we'll topple the heads for forsaking us. Whoever says we're an advanced species hasn't studied our dismal relationship with nature.

[advancedatheist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kam30en', 'T')hey'll continue to build airports, highways, parking garages, mcmansions, super-suburbs, giant SUVS and yachts up until the collapse.