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When do you think oil price will hit $100/barrel

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When will we hit $100

Next Week.
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0%
Before the end of May.
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Sometime in June.
6
No votes
The last half of the year.
21
No votes
Depends on Iran.
15
No votes
Depends on dollar.
5
No votes
Never - we will crash before then.
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0%
 
Total votes : 47

When do you think oil price will hit $100/barrel

Unread postby OilyMon » Sat 13 May 2006, 15:25:38

And is this really a milestone? Or is every increase just getting us in a little deeper? Is there a breaking point?
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Re: When do you think oil will hit $100/barrel

Unread postby VinceG » Sat 13 May 2006, 15:35:37

Who cares? Oil will hit 100 dollar a barrel eventually in the next 10 years. Why speculate about the exact date?
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Re: When do you think oil will hit $100/barrel

Unread postby rwwff » Sat 13 May 2006, 15:52:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VinceG', 'W')ho cares? Oil will hit 100 dollar a barrel eventually in the next 10 years. Why speculate about the exact date?


Because its fun?
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Re: When do you think oil will hit $100/barrel

Unread postby Geko45 » Sat 13 May 2006, 16:00:12

Well, I can't say with any certainty as to when the first price spikes will break $100, but I can say with a degree of confidence that we will be AVERAGING about $100 a barrel by August of 2007. Obviously, in order to achieve that average we will see the first $100 spikes much sooner.
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Re: When do you think oil will hit $100/barrel

Unread postby Sgs-Cruz » Sat 13 May 2006, 16:39:02

Why are the only options in 2006, or else "never"?

I think it'll be a few more years yet.
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Re: When do you think oil will hit $100/barrel

Unread postby Geko45 » Sat 13 May 2006, 18:59:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sgs-Cruz', 'W')hy are the only options in 2006, or else "never"?

Yeah, a little narrow on the choices. This year seems to be unlikely unless we have a supply disruption.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') think it'll be a few more years yet.

Well, even a simple average of the growth rate over the last four years projected out to $100 would put this benchmark squarely in 2007. We won't have to wait long, that is for sure.
Last edited by Geko45 on Sat 13 May 2006, 21:52:22, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: When do you think oil will hit $100/barrel

Unread postby Geko45 » Sat 13 May 2006, 19:08:57

Just to formalize my prediction for posterity.

Image
Last edited by Geko45 on Sat 13 May 2006, 19:37:24, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: When do you think oil will hit $100/barrel

Unread postby Dreamtwister » Sat 13 May 2006, 19:36:22

I'm sorry, My eyes aren't as sharp as they used to be and I just want to clarify something.

Does that chart really say the "realistic case" points to Q3 2007? 8O
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Re: When do you think oil will hit $100/barrel

Unread postby eastbay » Sat 13 May 2006, 19:40:37

Dreamtwister,

Yup, your eyes are seeing it coorectly, but I believe the 'realistic' line is really 'optimistic'.
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Re: When do you think oil will hit $100/barrel

Unread postby PWALPOCO » Sat 13 May 2006, 20:12:46

I dont want to draw criticism for likening oil to other commodities but as unlikely as Gekos "red plot" might appear it does bare a good resemblance to what has transpired with Aluminium or Copper over the last 5 years.

Nice gradual build up in price ... then whooooosh , only oil hasnt done the "whoooosh" bit yet.

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Re: When do you think oil will hit $100/barrel

Unread postby Geko45 » Sat 13 May 2006, 20:14:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dreamtwister', 'I')'m sorry, My eyes aren't as sharp as they used to be and I just want to clarify something. Does that chart really say the "realistic case" points to Q3 2007? 8O

Yep, the yellow line is just the straight extrapolation of a four year old trend which works out to be approximately 27% annual growth. That is not what I think is going to happen, but rather that is what actually has happened over the past four years. If we assume that it continues in this way then $100 a barrel will be here to stay by Q3 of 2007.
Last edited by Geko45 on Sat 13 May 2006, 20:25:12, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: When do you think oil will hit $100/barrel

Unread postby Geko45 » Sat 13 May 2006, 20:18:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PWALPOCO', 'N')ice gradual build up in price ... then whooooosh , only oil hasnt done the "whoooosh" bit yet.

And therein lies the power of exponential growth...
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Re: When do you think oil will hit $100/barrel

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 14 May 2006, 18:41:39

i guarentee terrorists will see to it that oil is 100 + per barrel by the end of 2006. A major hurricane could also drive it there. One of each, we could see 200.00 by end of 2006.
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Re: When do you think oil will hit $100/barrel

Unread postby venky » Sun 14 May 2006, 19:11:27

April 21st 2008
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Re: When do you think oil will hit $100/barrel

Unread postby lotrfan55345 » Mon 15 May 2006, 16:45:49

December 21, 2021
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