[stu]

Over the past few months I've been keeping an eye on the latest news and the views of experts who have played a part in painting a bleak picture of the future for me. These are the most prominent speakers on Peak Oil as well as Jim Puplava over at Financial Sense. If you look at recent comments by almost all of them then you can't help but think that the next 12 months will be when the S really HTF.

I always listen to the views of the experts and take their word for what they say and carefully listen to their predictions. They are the experts on their topic and so should be listened to intently and their opinions heeded. Lately the following has been said.

Kenneth Deffeyes- Peak will occur this year.

Colin Campbell- Conventional oil peaked last year and total peak will occur 2010.

Ali Samsam Bakhtiari- We are hitting peak either now or next year.

Matthew Simmons-Believes that oil will be over $200 by 2010.

Michael Ruppert- Headed for the hills.

James Howard Kunstler- Thinks that a natural gas crisis will begin the downfall of the US economy.

Jim Puplava- After reading his Stormwatch series he seems to be saying that the US economy will die sometime next year.

If you combine all of the above together then it creates the impression that we are really on the edge of the abyss.

One of two things will happen. The experts will be right or they will be wrong.

If it turns out that they are right then the world is possibly headed for hell starting next year.

If they are wrong and we arrive in 2007 with the economy still strolling along and no oil peak yet then some experts will be discredited and it will get worse as each year passes and nothing cataclysmic happens.

The reason I say that its now or never time for the doomers is purely down to the fact that the experts are calling it now. If they are wrong then how many times will we listen to their predictions before deciding to ignore then and label them as uncreditable doommongers. Colin Campbell has been wrong before so it wouldn't be the first time. How long do people intend to listen to predictions and then give up on them when they turn out to be wrong?

Stu.
(Reformed Doomer)

[Ludi]

So then, in your opinion, can we all heave a sigh of relief?

[stu]

Of course not.

There are many issues that need to be sorted out.

Iraq has to become a stable democracy.

There has to be enough oil to last us until alternatives can take over.

The US economy has to be managed through this turbulent period whilst dealing with the rise of Asian economies.

Efforts have to be made to reduce global emissions to combat climate change.

There has to be a strategy to provide the developing economies of the world with resources.

There have never been as many challenges facing humanity as there are now and there is a lot of reason for doomers to start predicting that the end is nigh.

Obviously we are not out of the woods just because we make it past periods of time that experts predict the beginning of the end. What I'm saying in this thread is that we all rely on experts in order to inform us of details in a given subject that we take more than a passing interest in. With a subject such as Peak Oil predicting a date is the key factor in the topic and the question that will be most asked. This then obviously means that we will listen to the thoughts and predictions of Simmons et al. If they are constantly proved wrong then their credibility is slowly eroded over time. As time goes on then it is only the most committed doomer that stays with their opinion. Also as each year passes then there is more time to create awareness of the problem and create alternatives. The next couple of years will be critical becuase if we arrive in 2008 with all the experts saying that we are on the verge of disaster then are you really going to believe them?

This is not my opinion. I've decided to just sit on the fence from now on and stop preaching doomerosity to my family and friends.

[Ludi]

Sorry, I'm easily confused. I'm trying to figure out what you think the significance is of the "experts" possibly being wrong. That "doomers" will stop believing them? So what?

Sorry, like I say, I'm confused...

[dissimulo]

As long as the fundamentals of the situation don't change (e.g. too many people, not enough petroleum, declines in production, no concerted action being taken to build out alternatives) it hardly matters what the prophets of doom say. I hope they are wrong and I'll continue preparing either way.

[bobcousins]

The doomers will be insisting on imminent collapse until either there is one (by luck) or they are dead.

I think we will be pretty flat until about 2010 when serious decline sets in. Ask me again in 5 years time.

[Ludi]

I'm not a doomer, or rather, I don't consider myself a doomer, but "serious decline" five years from now sounds pretty damn bad to me. But I'm a middle-aged person, and others who are younger might feel five years is a long time. I get the impression from many posts on the board here that lots of members are young, because they seem to think five or ten years is a long time, time enough to change our infrastructure, etc.

[stu]

What I believe is that less and less people will listen to Peak Oil experts and their doomer predictions the longer away the peak is.

Obviously these people are experts in their fields and will always be relied upon to inform and educate people on the thesis of Hubbards Peak. However talking about PO will inevitably lead to the question being asked: When is the year that we will hit peak?

These experts will then be asked to use their knowledge of depletion models and whatever else it is that they use to model future oil production and come up with an approximate date for peak. After reading what these experts have been saying for the last few months then you surely have to look at the wider picture and conclude that we are on the verge of possible disaster.

Imagine a scenario in 2010 where the world hasn't ended and the Peak oil experts are still predicting the end. By that time there will be a whole volume of information that will be used to discredit them based on their predictions not on their knowledge.

If doomers are going to take them on their word and prepare for the end now, then this shows a belief that the end is nigh. If nothing happens and more predictions are made then how many doomers will keep the faith in the credibility of ASPO's predictions, Simmons' Predictions, Deffeyes predictions etc, etc.

Imagine you're at a horse race and a friend recommends you take the advice of a certain bookie he highly recommends. You place a lot of money on a horse that the bookie says is a dead cert and then the horse comes in near last. Your friend then says that you should take his advice on the next race. How much faith would you have in that bookie?

I believe that all doomers have their limits and will eventually progress to moderates the longer the apocalypse is delayed.

[Ludi]

Thanks for clarifying, stu.

As I understand them, the experts above aren't claiming civilization will instantly collapse right after peak occurs. In fact, Ken Deffeyes is very explicit in saying we won't know peak until after it happens. If people are misunderstanding these men, and believing they are saying civilization will collapse instantly after peak, I think that is the fault of those interpreting these men's predictions, and not the fault of the predictions themselves.

[stu]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'T')hanks for clarifying, stu.

As I understand them, the experts above aren't claiming civilization will instantly collapse right after peak occurs. In fact, Ken Deffeyes is very explicit in saying we won't know peak until after it happens. If people are misunderstanding these men, and believing they are saying civilization will collapse instantly after peak, I think that is the fault of those interpreting these men's predictions, and not the fault of the predictions themselves.

[Ludi]

But did Deffeyes give an indication of when those horrors would occur relative to the peak?

The middle class is already disappearing and many if not most states have no budget surplus. So isn't this already happening?

[stu]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'B')ut did Deffeyes give an indication of when those horrors would occur relative to the peak?

The middle class is already disappearing and many if not most states have no budget surplus. So isn't this already happening?

[Ludi]

In the US anyway, there is an increasing disproportion between the income of the wealthy and the rest of us. The middle class has to work much harder to support themselves at the middle level (two incomes needed rather than one). There is no savings to speak of and the average American spends almost 25% more than they earn.

[Omnitir]

I think there is far too much emphasis on when oil will peak, and not enough thought on preparing for that inevitable time. As Stu say’s, I think the longer the peak is delayed, the less believable the doomer predictions will be to people.

The solution is to stop predicting specific times. We know it will be soon, maybe within 2 years, maybe within 10, maybe even 15 years away. But it doesn’t matter. What’s important is that people understand that we need to make changes now.

It seems that focusing on predicting dates is counter productive.

[CarlinsDarlin]

To me, Deffeys was saying, "you wanna know what it's like post peak? Look around, and expect more of it." We have lost millions of jobs, the middle class is disappearing, and more. I think we'll just see the momentum speed up as we go forward. I don't expect a huge crash overnight, and I don't think that's what any of the experts are implying will happen. I think we'll look back, much like people look back at the stock market crash of 1929 as the beginning of the great depression. The day it happened, nobody could have envisioned what the decade of the 30's would be like. It was only after the fact that the full scope was recognized.
Kathy

[AmericanEmpire]

Things are already falling apart in this country and have been for a long while. We are living in a declining civilization it just hasn't been rapid enough for most people to realize it.

Our infrastructure is crumbling, our schools are failing, the medical system is screwed up, we are in debt up to our eyeballs(personal, consumer, and national), middle class is going away as people have to work harder to maintain the same standard of living with two people working. Its already falling apart. We can't maintain what we have now.

I think looking back on it the moon landing will be the height of our civilization. The way all the science, engineering, and academia came together for that national goal. Its been all downhill since then.

[seldom_seen]

I don't think it really matters what the "experts" say or if they are right or wrong. How many people have heard of Heinberg, Kunstler or Deffeyes? A very tiny percentage...many of that tiny percentage will easily write them off immediately because they don't want to pop their fossil fuel dreamworld bubble.

I agree with AE, the decline started years ago. Oil depletion will just speed things up, kick the decline in to high gear. We can't just call a "time out" on industrial civilization and retool to some non-existent fuel source.

Think of a massive oil tanker heading to port at full throttle. It doesn't just pull up to the dock at full speed and hit the kill switch. It starts slowing down well before port, to the point that it is almost not moving when it gets to the harbor so that a tugboat can come and retrieve it.

Our civilization is like that, we should have started slowing down down 30 or 40 so years ago to get ready to pull in to peak oil harbor. Too late now, we're going to ram the dock wth the engines wide open.

[Andrew_S]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('stu', '
')On the contrary Ludi I vividly remember Deffeyes quote from End of Surburbia on what it will be like living Post Peak. " Trillions of dollars lost from the US stock market. 2 million jobs lost. State budget surplus gone. The middle class disappearing." That sounds like the collapse of civilisation to me, though I feel we could disagree on the speed of collapse and what we would define as the collapse of civilisation.

[AmericanEmpire]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ounds like most of the middle class becoming ordinarily poor and of course the lower classes doing even worse is your idea of the end civilization.

[seahorse]

I agree with Stu. If 2006 comes and goes as usual, peak oil will be another cry of wolf. Peak oil will be chalked up to yet another Biblical "revelations." Be prepared, Christ is returning, and Christians have been waiting on his return for over 2000 years now.