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Do Peak Oilers support the fuel tax protests ?

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Do Peak Oilers support the fuel tax protests ?

Unread postby Wildwell » Sun 11 Sep 2005, 16:01:22

http://www.lesstaxonfuel.co.uk/cgi-bin/ ... pl?board=1

Quite a lot of people from here and power switch on there, one of the main sites for sympathisers with forthcoming blockades.
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Re: Peak oilers attack Fuel Lobby with full force

Unread postby backstop » Sun 11 Sep 2005, 16:19:34

Wildwell -

I'm unable to follow the logic of your title -

First, a few members are posting on the site you link, which is scarcely full force in numbers or in tactics.

Second, the Fuel Lobby isn't being attacked by the road protests - after all, they're aiming to force the Govt. to give the oil corporations a larger share of retail fuel prices -

Perhaps the title should be ammended to

"Some Peak Oilers back the Road Haulage Industry" ?

regards,

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Re: Peak oilers attack Fuel Lobby with full force

Unread postby EnergySpin » Sun 11 Sep 2005, 16:21:44

Shouldn't we be increasing the taxes?
Or am I missing something that is going on, in the UK?
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Re: Peak oilers attack Fuel Lobby with full force

Unread postby backstop » Sun 11 Sep 2005, 16:32:26

Energy Spin -

Raising consumer energy taxes looks appealing, under the polluter pays principle.

BUT, they can also be presented as a counter-productive Green Herring.

Given that most drivers feel entirely dependent on their cars, and that maasive media resources are active in slandering the very principle of taxation, any Govt that raised taxes sufficiently to make a significant difference to fuel consumption would be forced out of office.

The surgical use of taxation, specifically on the preferences of those who mandate oil-companies' investment plans, namely the corporations' shareholders, is another matter.

I think the latter approach might have strong popular support in countries around the world.

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Re: Peak oilers attack Fuel Lobby with full force

Unread postby EnergySpin » Sun 11 Sep 2005, 16:44:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('backstop', 'E')nergy Spin -

Raising consumer energy taxes looks appealing, under the polluter pays principle.

BUT, they can also be presented as a counter-productive Green Herring.

Given that most drivers feel entirely dependent on their cars, and that maasive media resources are active in slandering the very principle of taxation, any Govt that raised taxes sufficiently to make a significant difference to fuel consumption would be forced out of office.

The surgical use of taxation, specifically on the preferences of those who mandate oil-companies' investment plans, namely the corporations' shareholders, is another matter.

I think the latter approach might have strong popular support in countries around the world.

regards,

Backstop

Question: what is exactly going on in the UK now? Do people want the taxes to be lowered and are about to block the refineries? (first question)
Regarding the tax on carbon based fuels: I have always thought that a "carbon-tax" would be the best way forward. But one would have to somehow distinguish between the fuel used to drive a moron on a 4 mpg vehicle and the farmer who needs the diesel to farm the land or in other words between leisure vs productive uses. Of course the companies in the hydrocarbon business should be taxed even more heavily under the premise that polluter pays. This is especially true for power utilities (do not know though how applicable this is in the UK, since I have no idea how far privitazion has "advanced" in your part of the world.
Re: "counter-productive Green Herring" I'm not sure what you mean. People should be made aware that lifestyle choices have an environmental cost, and we seem to agree on that. Are you worried about the media claiming that "treehuggers" are increasing the unemployment rate?
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Re: Peak oilers attack Fuel Lobby with full force

Unread postby Wildwell » Sun 11 Sep 2005, 16:46:32

Well there seems a few people on there that seem to be mentioning 'Peak oil' and posting links to other sites, I was quite taken aback.

I also noticed a few ex-members of this site like Roger Savage (mind you I also noticed Barbara on a future predictions site once)...Small world eh? But I digress, by taxing the oil companies you must remember that they have less money to pay toward pension schemes and less money for alternatives.

Should we be supporting road haulage? Only where it's absolutely needed yes, otherwise no, heavy trucks are not a very efficient way to move stuff and they blight urban areas and villages.

Farmers deserve support as they grow our food, but that’s almost a separate matter because they’re on low tax diesel and some of them are on subsidies. Something in our wonderful system needs to give, who should use less oil?
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Re: Peak oilers attack Fuel Lobby with full force

Unread postby EnergySpin » Sun 11 Sep 2005, 16:57:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Wildwell', ' ')Something in our wonderful system needs to give, who should use less oil?

The SUV driver .... but WW by not taxing the hell out of oil companies we are ensuring that whatever forms of alternative energy are available fall in their hands. We should be using the money to giving power (metaphorically and literaly) back to people. If the private sector wants to continue to stay afloat then they should be investing their huge profits in R&D. By the same token, the public through government taxation should ensure that publicly funded research continues lest Big Oil makes bad or no R&D investment.
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Re: Peak oilers attack Fuel Lobby with full force

Unread postby backstop » Sun 11 Sep 2005, 18:02:08

Energy Spin -

These are somewhat immense questions, but will try them.

1/, UK populace increasingly trained to object to tax, but a good fraction are aware that cheaper fuel will dangerously raise GHG outputs.
Support for the Road Haulage Lobby's protests will depend on the media, who can see the global supply issue, but thrive on reporting conflict.
The protest's effectiveness will depend, just like last time, on oil-company complicity - they were handing out tea & coffee to the protesters at the refineries and promptly decalared it was not safe to send out fuel trucks even if the police cleared the road . . . This time they have all of the extant risk of recession to consider.

2/. I'd like to introduce an unmentioned player of central relevance prior to addressing a Carbon Tax, namely "Jevon's Mother"
Her role is to ensure that if any nation adopts policies to cut its fossil fuel consumption, other nations will enjoy marginally cheaper supplies until rising demand has mopped up the excess. This may marginally postpone the peak, but does not of itself put funds into sustainable energies' deployment, nor does it control the emssion of GHGs committing us to ruinous Climate Destabilization.

Until both Jevon & his mother are capped, in practice by a global agreement on fossil-fuel usage, they will continue to negate laudable efforts both for energy efficiency and for cuts in energy demand. I've put a half-decent outline of the progress of the requisite global agreement in the "Jevon's Paradox -Death by Conservation" thread for those interested.

3/. Our farmers already have 'Red Diesel' which has minimal tax, and have been conned into buying vast wasteful tractors on credit, and so, together with a partisan dislike of the present Govt, will to an extent support the fuel protest.

4/. Alas the UK's utilities have been largely privateered, to the great damage to their quality of service and costs imposed. In some cases this was done so badly that just keeping them going is taking more public funds than before. In the case of the rails under our trains, the Govt has had to take them back into public ownership despite being politically well to the right of Mrs Thatcher.

5/. I'd well agree that people need to be aware of the impacts of their actions - for instance, child abuse is rife in this country if you look at the hight of vehicles' exhaust-pipes in relation to push-chairs . . .

If we start from the premis that we need truly radical policy in govt, and then accept that an incoming govt has a limited political capital to invest, it seems plain that the outcome depends on the manner it's invested.
Yes, a hefty increase in Road-fuel tax could be imposed, cutting UK GHG output in favour of say India's, and raising a billion£ for investment in renewables, which increases the soil- & aquifer-depletion by agribusiness sugar-beet for biodiesel in Norfolk.
This cock-up is exposed, adding to anti-tax opposition, and the govt is unlikely to survive the next election. . . .

6/. A carbon tax would not of itself do any better, so I would only go as far as supporting a revenue neutral one, that is simply to collect the same overall revenue but charged according to carbon emissions, not the present muddle of different rates for particular fuels' lobbying strengths.
This would provide the info people need, without spending too much political capital.

Notably, The global agreement metioned above will, via "Contraction & Convergence" put a value on every tonne of carbon emitted, and will do so in a manner that is superior to a mere tax, both by setting an annual global emissions budget and by making the right to emit each tonne tradeable.

This is the requisite cap for both for the delinquent Jevon & his implacable Mother.

regards,

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Re: Peak oilers attack Fuel Lobby with full force

Unread postby EnergySpin » Sun 11 Sep 2005, 18:24:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('backstop', 'E')nergy Spin -

These are somewhat immense questions, but will try them.

2/. I'd like to introduce an unmentioned player of central relevance prior to addressing a Carbon Tax, namely "Jevon's Mother"
Her role is to ensure that if any nation adopts policies to cut its fossil fuel consumption, other nations will enjoy marginally cheaper supplies until rising demand has mopped up the excess. This may marginally postpone the peak, but does not of itself put funds into sustainable energies' deployment, nor does it control the emssion of GHGs committing us to ruinous Climate Destabilization.

Hence a global policy is needed or something like a decreasing "carbon budget" with tradeable quotas (I will look into GCI policy sometime this week.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('backstop', '
')3/. Our farmers already have 'Red Diesel' which has minimal tax, and have been conned into buying vast wasteful tractors on credit, and so, together with a partisan dislike of the present Govt, will to an extent support the fuel protest.

Thanks for clarifying this ... in spite of the lower prices they enjoy relative to everyone else, they will suffer due to the inefficiencies of the sector.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('backstop', '
')4/. Alas the UK's utilities have been largely privateered, to the great damage to their quality of service and costs imposed. In some cases this was done so badly that just keeping them going is taking more public funds than before. In the case of the rails under trains, the Govt has had to take them back into public ownership despite being politically well to the right of Mrs Thatcher.

Thanks for the clarification about the energy sector in the UK

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('backstop', '
')If we start from the premis that we need truly radical policy in govt, and then accept that an incoming govt has a limited political capital to invest, it seems plain that the outcome depends on the manner it's invested.
Yes, a hefty increase in Road-fuel tax could be imposed, cutting UK GHG output in favour of say India's, and raising a billion£ for investment in renewables, which increases the soil- & aquifer-depletion by agribusiness sugar-beet for biodiesel in Norfolk.
This cock-up is exposed, adding to anti-tax opposition, and the govt is unlikely to survive the next election. . . .

Regarding India, yes of course the policy has to be global. But I was really referring to a carbon tax imposed on goods at the point of consumption based on the distance from the point of production, thus reducing the "competitive" advantage of goods produced thousands of miles ago. Such a tax could be very effective in relocalizing production but it does not (unfortunately) limit the power of multinationals due to the international IPR legal framework in place.

It does not have to be research in biofuels. But the money for efficiency, renewable research etc has to come from somewhere. I argue that it has to come from both the junkie (consumer) and the drug dealer (utility, oil comp.) If Daly and the other steady state economicians are correct in their assessment i.e. that a steady state economy will end up being enfocrced due to environmental + depletion problems, then one has to consider the following:
- under such an economy, changes are extremely less likely to happen or that if they do happen they will happen slowly. This means that whoever has the financial power when the (forced) transition is made will maintain it for a very long time. I'd rather the government (municipal, local, central) have that financial power than anyone else when the transition is made. After all feudal societies were steady state economies and without some form of income redistribution from corps to public institutions we will end up re-enacting the financial system of the Middle Ages

Edit
-----
It occured to me that road tolls could have the same effect on reducing the use of the personal automobile without increasng overtaxing the fuel. It might be easier to administer too. But unless a global consistent policy is in place the Jevons family will be with us :roll:
Last edited by EnergySpin on Sun 11 Sep 2005, 18:33:33, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Do Peak Oilers support the fuel tax protests ?

Unread postby richardmmm » Sun 11 Sep 2005, 18:30:20

England used to have cheap petrol whilst other EU countries such as Italy were very expensive. The UK now has probably the most expensive petrol in the world, because the government has cranked up the taxes more and more. At prices of 1 GBP per litre this is 3.80 per gallon which is $6 per gallon US prices..........and this is not emergency fuel shortage prices, these are every day prices that people have to pay to fill up anywhere, anytime.

So compared to average US prices the UK government is pocketing $3USD a gallon more than what the US states and federal taxes amount to and these are quite considerable.

This is clearly outrageous socialism, a huge gouging by the government. The prices for gasoline on the futures exchange are around $2 at the moment so you can see the UK government is basically eating it's population alive.

Prices in other EU countries are around 1EU per liter, which is still alot more than the US, but it is supposed to be a common economic zone so the UK should bring the prices back so that are comparable.
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Re: Do Peak Oilers support the fuel tax protests ?

Unread postby gt1370a » Sun 11 Sep 2005, 18:49:46

In my state, the Democrats are calling for a moratorium on the gas tax, while Republicans are asking oil companies to sell at cost. Which just makes me think - when you have a supply problem, how the hell does bringing DOWN the cost to encourage consumption help anything? Maybe it would be better if the government just did nothing in response to peak oil...

So, uh, no I don't support fuel tax protests.
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Re: Do Peak Oilers support the fuel tax protests ?

Unread postby Wildwell » Sun 11 Sep 2005, 18:52:34

The prices across Europe are not a lot different these days and the tax is fairly similar. Don't forget Europe has more Toll roads too.

The hope from a lot of these people is that if the government drops the tax, fuel prices will drop anyway eventually and they can put the tax on (yeah right!). Of course the danger is, if oil keeps rising and demand doesn't fall we'll have physical shortages, and, in a few years we'll be in the same situation, with more shortages. Eventually the tax might not be able to cut anymore; there may be no alternatives in place, and then what?

Now this isn't funny any more, it's not a game, it’s a huge gamble. The trouble is you have the extreme motoring lobby out just to spread nonsense through the media, scaremongering about prices rises and eventually making the situation worse..it’s going to be interesting.
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Re: Do Peak Oilers support the fuel tax protests ?

Unread postby backstop » Sun 11 Sep 2005, 19:25:55

Energy Spin -

A tax on goods' embedded transport-energy would indeed be desirable, and will I guess be an early advance once the present farce of 'free' trade collapses. The nearest we've got to it here is a lobby to publish the 'food-miles' of produce on its packaging to give advantage to local produce. If this gets near reality no doubt the WTO will stamp on it on behalf of the food-corporations.

An airline fuels tax is another option, but is very hard to impose given their mobility and their standing in the establishment. One option I've heard discussed is giving the global air-transport industry the status of a country under C&C, meaning that its annual total oil allowance will decline apart from their buying extra entitlements, which would elevate its costs significantly year-on-year.

With regard to the "junky and the dealer," for choice I'd redirect the spending of taxes on the former from, say, road and airport building to public transport and retail delivery services. As regards the dealer, I'd start by progressively stripping the present tax-breaks & subsidies before any conflicts over raising their taxes. The BRED tax on shareholder profits (according to firms' comparative Budgets for Research, Exploration & Development in sus. energies) looks to me best in that it targets the dealers' bankers, namely the stockbroker.

I share your concern over the incumbency issue that Daly & others have highlighted.

However, first, the shift to the energy self-reliance of the sustainables is of itself a huge dilution of Energy corporations' power (which is why in part they support the highest tech options such as hydrogen and PV, where control can more easily be retained).

Second, the Convergence under C&C from disparate purchasing power to per capita parity transforms the market-place in which the corporations must try to operate.

Third, these organizations' very size makes them very unwieldy, and, with increasing destabilization of the global society due to PO, GW, and random threats, I personally doubt whether the mega corporation is going to survive the changes, let alone retain dominance.

Thus on the question of incumbency, I'd say the core as ever, is just how we raise constructive participation in the democratic process, both during and between elections, and how decision making is to be retrieved to an appropriately local level.

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Re: Do Peak Oilers support the fuel tax protests ?

Unread postby backstop » Sun 11 Sep 2005, 19:45:47

Ricardmmm Wrote

"The UK now has probably the most expensive petrol in the world, because the government has cranked up the taxes more and more. At prices of 1 GBP per litre this is 3.80 per gallon which is $6 per gallon US prices..........and this is not emergency fuel shortage prices, these are every day prices that people have to pay to fill up anywhere, anytime.

So compared to average US prices the UK government is pocketing $3USD a gallon more than what the US states and federal taxes amount to and these are quite considerable.

This is clearly outrageous socialism, a huge gouging by the government. The prices for gasoline on the futures exchange are around $2 at the moment so you can see the UK government is basically eating it's population alive."




Not only is your maths even worse than usual today, your gross ignorance of countries other than your own is brazenly displayed.

First, there are 4.54 litres in the gallon, not 3.8 as you have guessed. The rest of your numbers are all thus correspondingly wrong.

Second, you clearly have no notion of the meaning of socialism - we happen to have the least socialist government this country has seen in generations - it is for a start well to the right of Mrs Thatcher.

Third, we really don't like, for example, leaving people to die in the street of treatable diseases just because they are poor -
we consider that immoral - so yes we accept the paying of various taxes that might seem bizarre in the US,
like the wealthier shareholders of New Orleans paying for sufficient levees for instance . . .

regards,

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Re: Do Peak Oilers support the fuel tax protests ?

Unread postby EnergySpin » Sun 11 Sep 2005, 20:11:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('backstop', 'E')nergy Spin -

An airline fuels tax is another option, but is very hard to impose given their mobility and their standing in the establishment. One option I've heard discussed is giving the global air-transport industry the status of a country under C&C, meaning that its annual total oil allowance will decline apart from their buying extra entitlements, which would elevate its costs significantly year-on-year.

Smart .. anoither option would be to have their Co2 allowance under the country they are based.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('backstop', '
') The BRED tax on shareholder profits (according to firms' comparative Budgets for Research, Exploration & Development in sus. energies) looks to me best in that it targets the dealers' bankers, namely the stockbroker.

Hm this is an interesting idea; companies will have an impetus to invest on R&D rather than enjoy a free-rider, which is nad has always been the case in the pharmaceutical sector since the mergers of the 80s.



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bascstop', '
')However, first, the shift to the energy self-reliance of the sustainables is of itself a huge dilution of Energy corporations' power (which is why in part they support the highest tech options such as hydrogen and PV, where control can more easily be retained).

Yes and no; first wind (my favourite renewable) has become a big boys game. 5MW With turbines are currently in production and I have seen plans for 10MW designs; they hardly qualify as a huge dilution of utilitie's power since they are the only ones they can afford them.

Dye based PVs will be simpler to manufacture and much cheaper than the silicon counterparts. PVs do come with a big CO2 budget; but I do expect the titania oxide ones to be the one that makes solar a big player for homes. Re: pure H2 .... I really do not know BS. It is not going anywhere except Iceland, in spite of its conceptual "beauty". However liquid storage (methanol is a form of hydrogen storage) with onboard reforming+fuel cells might be the development that tips the balance. I do think that only the only large scale viable form of H2 production is via bugs (that spit methane, methanol or ethanol). Viable has to be understood in both practical but more importantly financial terms. Bugs will be protected by draconian IPR laws and are less likely to incite public outcry (as opposed to agro-GMOs).
I do hope that the 3rd world debt deal is not an elaborate scum to grow sugar cane in Africa. I did find a modeling scenario by Max Plank which does show that there no way for Europe to meet its needs via energy crops growin in Europe (they did say though that wood based feedstock might be a different story). and as for the USA, well :roll:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('backstop', '
')Second, the Convergence under C&C from disparate purchasing power to per capita parity transforms the market-place in which the corporations must try to operate.

promise to read it !

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('backstop', '
')Third, these organizations' very size makes them very unwieldy, and, with increasing destabilization of the global society due to PO, GW, and random threats, I personally doubt whether the mega corporation is going to survive the changes, let alone retain dominance.

I was thinking more of a transformation to loosely coupled networks operating inside different countries (e.g. ASPO model) . IPR laws and digital tech will enable them to maintain control over the corresponding sectors in different countries. The model is not applicable only to IT. Any industry that makes things whose bluprints can be transmitted electronically can survive in such environment. In reality it makes no difference if one's Viagra is made in Kork, Ireland or Maryland, USA. As long as money can be transmitted electronically and blueprints can be transferred digitally (and IPR controlled) power will remain with the same structures. One might even see co-operation between different sectors to share infrastructure (chemical, pharmaceutical industries come to mind).
I would not trust the combo of GW+PO+randomness to deal with this; one needs to tackle both the IPR framework (especially in biotech and pharma) and tax international money transfer (the Tobin tax). Although globalization is equated to cheap air travel, in reality the power of companies did rise with the dematerialization of the economy. Even if cheap travel disappears, control will be maintaned by local elites (which was the way the game was played before Rapid Air Strike Forces).


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('backstop', '
')Thus on the question of incumbency, I'd say the core as ever, is just how we raise constructive participation in the democratic process, both during and between elections, and how decision making is to be retrieved to an appropriately local level.

Daly in the article he wrote for the last issue of Sci American was cornered about the issue of employement in a steady state economy and he said that unemployment for example will be higher. This is a litl bit different from the position he maintained in the early 90s i.e. that SS economies can have institutions like stock markets and can demonstrate familiar financial phenomena. I interpret it , as a sign that HD and many of the environmental economists/ss economists now understand that such an economy will be more different they realised. To prevent neo-feudalism, economy has to be subsumed by the democratic process otherwise it will be the middle ages all over again.
Yet the devil is in the details ... and I really do not know how to convince people to vote. 20 years of brainwashing have convinced people that politics does not matter.
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Re: Do Peak Oilers support the fuel tax protests ?

Unread postby CARVER » Sun 11 Sep 2005, 20:52:51

In the Netherlands we have the highest gasoline prices in the world, it's around €1.50 per ltr. Last weak over here the price peaked at US$ 7.37 per gallon. I think our taxes are not nearly high enough, because people are still not giving the mileage of their new cars a high priority, even though the hybrids are subsidised (and now the gas guzzlers are being taxed extra).

Everyone of them that did not buy a fuel efficient (small) car, or use their car when they easily could have walked or biked, should not complain. They will be the ones that will really start to complain when there won't be any gas for them to buy. When they ask: "Where is it?" the answer will be: "You wasted it all on all those nonessential trips! We tried to warn you, but you would not listen". It seems like most people really believe it's their right to have unlimited supplies of cheap gas. It's still your own responsibility to think about what you are doing. I think the effects of the fuel tax will benefit us in the long run.

They are now talking about lowering the speed limit over here (I'm all for that). I think that idea will get even more complaints.
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Re: Peak oilers attack Fuel Lobby with full force

Unread postby Xelat » Mon 12 Sep 2005, 02:24:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('backstop', '
')2/. I'd like to introduce an unmentioned player of central relevance prior to addressing a Carbon Tax, namely "Jevon's Mother"
Her role is to ensure that if any nation adopts policies to cut its fossil fuel consumption, other nations will enjoy marginally cheaper supplies until rising demand has mopped up the excess. This may marginally postpone the peak, but does not of itself put funds into sustainable energies' deployment, nor does it control the emssion of GHGs committing us to ruinous Climate Destabilization.

Until both Jevon & his mother are capped, in practice by a global agreement on fossil-fuel usage, they will continue to negate laudable efforts both for energy efficiency and for cuts in energy demand. I've put a half-decent outline of the progress of the requisite global agreement in the "Jevon's Paradox -Death by Conservation" thread for those interested.


I've largely left this site alone for some time but I've been lurking fllwoing Katrina and I noticed this post. I want to respond just t this point.

A nation like the UK has the natural resources (North Sea) and economic/political leverage to sustain, in the medium term, the unsustainable consumption of the United State. What advantage is gained by an unusually high gas tax? I agree that decrease consumption by the UK is likely to be mostly offset by consumption elsewhere. I also agree that this gas tax does little to address the issue of carbon emission.

From a peak oilers perspective it does one other thing - important locally and potentially globally. Essentially they are simulating PO. They artificially raise prices (I guess things like prices are articificial already) to a level they would not likely experience for 2 or 3 years if there is no energy induced recession, and possibly as long as 10 years if there is. The Petrol Tax in the UK is currently 67% of the price of gas creating a situation in which gas is arguably 200% more expensive than it would be otherwise. The "gas tax as simulation" is certainly imperfect in that imported goods will not have associated higher costs, gov't entities will not pay the tax, the gov't gets money that it would not otherwise get if it was PO, etc. However it should act as a brake on consumption.

What is the local effect? Well there is a saying I lie very much - "You don't have to outrun the bear, just your friends". If PO pushes prices hard enough and various economies start tanking then the UK might find itself well positioned because they have already learned a few things about conserving. Economies like the US are heavily leveraged (consumer debt etc), consume wantonly, and although they have many conservation measures that can be taken are too rigid to do so. Thus there is a reasonable chance that the US economy might recess first. In this case we may well see a 10 or even 20% reduction in US consumption. Given the evidently high price elasticity of demand we should expect a pretty sever fall in the Euro denominated price of oil (the US dollar might tank too leaving dollar denominated oil still expensive). In this case the UK should be ok except for the negative effects of having a major trading partner in a shitload of trouble.

But suppose that competition in the "race to the bottom" (like the airlines) is more intense. The US weathers, Katrina, inflation, oil, no real estate bubble etc and other economies do so as well. Now oil production is maybe in slight decline or level and the westernizing of the Chinese and Indian economies continues to force prices higher. Then a country like the UK might be feeling the squeeze pretty badly. But while they might find gas prices to be oppressive all of that tax they paid years ago pays off - the gov't van remove the gast tax and instantly there is less of an economic issue (maybe a budgetary one for the UK though). Now they can weather higher gas prices a few moments longer waiting for some largish consumer to enter recession.

So in that sense the gas tax can potentially save the UK from some of the initial hard shocks of PO.

How could this have a global effect? When the US tanks we'll all be sitting around unemployed trying to figur out what the hell we can do to fix our country. Meanwhile the UK is healthy and provides an example of a way of life not so dramatically different from ours which will weather PO better. They also provide a consumer to sell wind turbines and solar panels too when the US is just trying to scrape together a few bucks for food and basic road maintenance.

So in that sense a high gas tax may provide a kind of insurance with respect to PO.

All that aside the reason they have the gas tax at such astounding levels is probably part of an attempt to meet the req of Kyoto which they take very seriously. They've suspended the last two scheduled raises of the tax exactly because of high prices.

Some US states have recently dropped their gas taxes. It will be interesting and disastrous to see if the federal gov't does this. It will stimulate consumption which we really do not need and more importantly it will create a huge hole in the budget for road maintenance since the gas tax revenues are designated for road maintenance.

The thing I try and remember about Jevon's paradox etc is that not all lily pads are created equal. Thos tat adapt might be able to get out of the pond before it evaporates. This is one reason I've switched to a low energy lifestyle - it gives me a jump on creating some kind of viable life post-post peak.
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Re: Do Peak Oilers support the fuel tax protests ?

Unread postby Liamj » Mon 12 Sep 2005, 04:19:23

I'm with the adapt-now camp too, i.e. don't cut fuel taxes, not yet anyway. There may be a case to do so at some time in the future, but Western globalised economies have a whole heap of relocalising to do and high fuel prices are about the only currently effective driver for that.

If blockaders were arguing for lower taxes AND serious moves to adapt to oil peak, including windfall taxes on corp's (or Backstops BRED tax), the winding down of foss.fuel industry subsidies, and big investment in more durable transport infrastructure, then i'd be on their blockades too.

I find it curious that govt is carrying the can as the bad guy, whilst market speculation does the real gouging. The teflon coating on our Great Market God is proving resilient.

Think we HAVE to get the debate past taxation levels, as depletionists will else be marginalised as being pro-big-govt/taxation and alienated from the majority of ppl who have no idea whats really happening and who are being bombarded with "greedy govt" messages.
So i'm going easy on the "high prices? get used to it.." line and heavy on the "adapt/act up or be sucked dry" line. Prices are everybodies intro to the issues, but they're in no way the full tale or best steering mechanism we have.
So get out there and develop the debate, i tell myself. :)
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Re: Do Peak Oilers support the fuel tax protests ?

Unread postby RobintheDruid » Tue 13 Sep 2005, 08:56:39

I think that before too long, fuel supplies will have to be prioritised, and to me one of the most important destinations for fuel will be trucks capable of delivering food and other essential supplies.

This means that the truckers to a certain extent have a point (but only a thin one), whilst the Chancellor is being truthful in his statement that it is actually a global problem.

Whether the protests go ahead or not, this is just a precursor of what will happen in the very near future - wrangling over essential supplies.

As far as I can see the path we're following from here goes downward. Those who realise that will be better prepared than those who just think its the oil companies etc finding an excuse to make more money.

Robin the Druid, Glastonbury, Uk

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Re: Do Peak Oilers support the fuel tax protests ?

Unread postby mermaid » Tue 13 Sep 2005, 09:10:05

i do not support the way the government of Belgium uses the tax-money, they use it to make new highwayroads, there are new plans for that.

I would support the plan to use the taxes for developing new energy sources and innovate new kinds of tranportation.

These plans for new roads are in my opinion useless becaus we will ride a bike on those highways very soon!!!!
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