[trespam]

I'll catch up tomorrow on any progress, regress, or otherwise in threads associated with my latest rants. But here's one thought to add to the discussion. Aaron defines landers, doomers, and something else. I can't remember. And from what I gather, Aaron is quite upset at the fact that humans started agriculture . Jared Diamond speaks to that topic a bit, which was recently referred to here: [link]. It does kind of suck. It would have been nice if we humans could still traipse around pulling fruit off the trees, digging up a root, hunting down a rabbit, and spending most of our time lazing around. Some of those who lived as such long ago probably had a nice life, better than living in a third world slum. So in that sense, I'll give Aaron some credit. It's a nice dream. But like many dreams, it's unrealistic. I see him poke fun at the people who believe in hydrogen economics (I think the hydrogen economy is a joke), but then he's got his little hydrogen-like world to look back on, the pre-agricultural garden of eden.

Because what I see is that Aaron--and I'm not picking on him in particular, but he raises points now and in the past and I'll comment on them--Aaron hates what humans are. He hates our nature. He doesn't believe in morality. He's read Darwin and seen some ugly things in his life and now everything is ugly. It's bad man. It sucks.

Here, Aaron will complain about straw men and the likes. Fine. My job in the past has been to run large projects--I once lead the development of experimental anti-submarine systems that we operated just about everywhere in the globe as an example--and when running a large project I need to listen to what people say and build an internal model or representation of what they are, what they can do, where they are coming from, etc. I've probably interviewed 1,000s of people over the past ten years, flying around the country (and even India) to do this. Find people.

So Aaron will obviously complain that I'm stereotyping him or misquoting. He's clearly able to correct me. But I've got to build models. That's what the human mind does.

So I've got this model of someone like Aaron. Very nice guy. Seriously. But depressed at the negative aspects of human nature. Jack, on the other hand, has the same view of human nature. He's not that depressed about it though. He just thinks it would be cool to be the top dog in a dog-eat-dog world.

Now please, bear with me. Let's change the names. I'm really not picking on Aaron or Jack. Change the names to anything you want. But since they are moderators here, their "names" have given me a handle to address some issues. But let's drop the names.

OK, where were we? Oh yes. Human nature. Look at our natures. There is the good and the bad. A bifurcation. The first split. The yin and the yang. There is a great book by someone, I think Ellis. Yeah, John Ellis, Language, Thought, and Logic. He makes a great argument about bifurcation and how the human mind operates. I suggest reading it, along with the Grey and Ophuls and Jantsch that I've been recommending.

So anyway, good and bad are a bifurcation. So what we have is one fellow--unamed--who thinks people are bad and is depressed about it. The other--also unnamed--thinks people are bad and is excited because with this knowledge of the truth he's able to justify any behavior he wants. Though even the first unnamed person often will argue that there is no morality. Just bad. It's bad. Just bad.

So these two unnamed individuals are focused on the bad side of the human bifurcation. And--along with Montequest--who will also now remain unnamed--they are quite disgusted with the fact that humans act according to their nature, build societies, consumer resources, fornicate, etc. Humans just can't seem to get their shit together. They're always increasing entropy. Damn humans. Stop that entropy increasing activity. Just stop it.

Now, all three unnamed individuals are quite depressed about the human condition. Unfortunately--for them, and the cause of peak oil--I do think they are looking--at least most of the time--at the bad side of this bifurcation. They are obsessed with the bad. They've not considered the good. That is their choice.

So let's try to wrap this up. What I see is a splitting up as follows (and remember any logical tree is just a set of bifurcations). Let's make three.

- The hopelessly hopeless
- The hopelessly optimistic
- The realists.

So here's our bifurcation:
- The hopeless
- The realists

Then we bifurcate the hopeless as follows:
- Hopelessly hopeless
- Hopelessly optimistic

The realists can waiver between the two. Being realists, they are flexible. The hopeless are inflexible. Reality won't change their minds. They're just hopeless (pick your flavor).

The hopelessly hopeless include many of the unnamed moderators on this board. It's all hopeless. And they are hopeless about it. They're hopelessly hopeless. Even if they are planning for the future, what good? They'll still die. In a few generations, their family line will probably die out. It's all screwed for them. Just hopeless. I'm feeling pretty hopeless right now just thinking about how hopeless these people are feeling. I feel for you oh hopeless ones. I would like to find a way to offer you hope. More on that later.

The hopelessly optimistic are also hopeless in their own way. They believe in the hydrogen economy. They believe that we might just pull some energy out of jupiter or saturn. They know that shale oil or frozen methane or cold fusion is just around the corner. They often have a degree in economics. But not always. They often have a lot of money. They've been lucky so view the world through rose colored glasses.

Then we have the realists. They waiver back and forth. They know they need to plan for the future. The might even keep a few firearms around the house, plenty of amo, 55 gallon drums of water, solar power on the house, food supplies, and other things. Not because of peak oil. But because that's what a realist does. Plan. A realist also often has health insurance and maybe even life insurance. The hopelesly optimistic don't because "hey, I'll never get sick or die, I'll just be cyrogenically revived someday" and the hoplessly hopeless don't because they just don't give a fuck (or can't afford it).

The realists know that life sucks a lot of the time. The realists are pretty cool with some of the things the Buddha said, Jesus Christ, Muhammad, etc but also know that a lot of the the things they said were crap. The realists know that societies sometimes fall apart. Realists know that science can provide a lot of cool toys and ways to think about things. But they are also know the limits of the human mind (read the End of Science). They also know that a great big asteroid could come crashing down on their heads any moment. Or-more likely--a bus hits their side door at 60 mph when they pull into an intersection. (Put your favorite end here if you don't like asteroids or cars).

Now do be cautious. The hopelessly hopeless and the hopelessly optimistic will both try to sell you their "realism." They call themselves the realiostic. But caveat emptor. I urge caution. You will notice that they seem to skip certain things when they make the sales pitch. That's the bad/good dichotomy problem as mentioned above. They're stuck on bad. It's like a switch, and because of nature or nurture, their switch is stuck most of the time on the bad side.

Realists won't fall into that trap. Realists will look hard and long at the data. Realists will plan. Realists know that in fact everything could fall apart for a variety of reasons. Realists know that peak oil sucks. But realists will still get out and have some fun. The hopelessly optimistic are also having fun (like they say, ignorance is bliss). The hopelessly hopeless are only having fun if they're pulling the wings off of flies--being true to their "nature." But I think they're just depressed.

Be a realist. Be open minded. Keep looking at the data. Watch out for conspiracy theories. Have fun. Be a realist. Don't be hopeless. I believe truth is more important than anything else. The hopeless must ignore some of the truth. Don't ignore it.

Ok, sorry for the distraction.

[Hawkcreek]

--

[SurvivalAcres]

Whose Aaron? Seriously. Post some links to your comments. I'd like to read what you allege.

Humans do suck - and so does civilization. Is a screwed up mess and going nowhere fast. There is a better way to live - we've lived it before.

While I haven't a clue what Aaron (or anyone) has to say about this, the widely accepted idea that this is the best it can be is patently absurd. NO FRIGGIN WAY.

I don't think you're list is going to be very meaningful (hopeless, optimists and realists) and I fail to see the point anyway.

I consider myself a realist, but viewpoint comes through individual experience which are only meaningful to them (not you), making that the only reality there really is (not yours, theirs). In other words, we're all living our own reality and always will be, which is why hopeless, optimists and realists labels are somewhat meaningless. You don't live in my shoes and I don't live in yours. Each of us is free to choose our own life (reality).

There is no one "right reality", as much as might want one. The closest the human race has ever come is to live a common reality.

Unfortunately, the problems come when your reality (life) starts affecting mine. Which is of course, what has happened throughout the world. What was once commonly accepted as reality (living) has dramatically changed (exchanged) for another commonly accepted reality. As a result - the world changed. Dramatically.

Some of us don't like it and would "go back" if we could. For us, it would be a (more then) fair exchange for the reality we have today.

As a side note - we may all have to, because this reality is falling apart.

So we may get what we want anyway - even if we don't do a damned thing.

[Aaron]

[trespam]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SurvivalAcres', 'W')hose Aaron?

[Macsporan]

Well said Trespam.

Like you I have no time for Doomers, Primitivists, Survivalists, Misanthropes, Right Wing whackjobs and anti-civilisation ranters.

We need solutions that do not involve smug acceptance of mass-death, anarchy, cannibalism and the end of all light.

What's the next move?

[Kingcoal]

Boy, Trespan is back with a vengeance. It's a breath of fresh air for the site, though. The intellectual content of this site has gone down since last year. I've noticed a lot of traffic here lately. Hopefully the real debate will restart.

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Macsporan', '
')
We need solutions that do not involve smug acceptance of mass-death, anarchy, cannibalism and the end of all light.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Macsporan', 'W')e need solutions that do not involve smug acceptance of mass-death, anarchy, cannibalism and the end of all light.

What's the next move?

[erl]

Trespam:

I am not sure that I understand what exactly you are trying to accomplish here. You call us all to realism. But really, how many people here are going to tell you that they are anything but? Come on, now.

I also am getting a little annoyed at your constant deliberate provocation of those you disagree with. Seems that you want an argument just for argument's sake, without any real desire to convince others of your position. You like to argue. You like to rattle cages. You're retired and have nothing to do so you want to upset the anthill. Just my take on it.

You attack others on this site for their honestly held positions. Jack, Aaron, and Montequest in particular. They, like the others, have all looked at the evidence and come to different conclusions than you. That doesn't make them wrong. That doesn't make them anything but realists.

Realism may not mean what you think it means.

What's more, you dig in your knife, and then you twist it. You try to get in your jabs. Does it feel good to inflict a little pain now and then? Whatever your reason, it's bad form. Get past it and you'll have more credibility.

You say Aaron has no morality. I have to disagree with you. I've tangled with him, too. He may lose his temper (as do we all), but he is not immoral. Like both Jack and Montequest, Aaron has a great deal of honor and integrity. I am only a poster here and I know none of them personally, but I believe you misjudge all of them.

I think you do it deliberately.

It's bad form.

***

Jack, Montequest and Aaron: Sorry about the brownnosing. Don't get used to it. It probably won't happen again.

[Macsporan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Macsporan', '
')
We need solutions that do not involve smug acceptance of mass-death, anarchy, cannibalism and the end of all light.

[bart]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MQ', 'W')ar. No one right now will buy a powerdown.

[Raxozanne]

The night before Katrina hit New Orleans I was on peakoil.com. The hardcore 'doomers' where there posting stuff such as: this is it New Orleans is going be gone, thousands will die, its going to be a disaster.

I thought they were taking it way over the top.

But it turns out these doomers were right.

Thousands probably did die. Bodies floating in the streets etc.
New Orleans has been flooded and for all purposes destroyed.
Katrina was a terrible natural disaster for the US and its reprecussions even being felt economically here in the UK.

In the end these doomers were not doomers but realists.

You can bash doomers all you want but have you ever stopped to question whether they have a good point? That they might actually have a clearer take on the situation than you?

[evilmonkeyspanker]

Okay, maybe I am not the smartest guy on here

But, I don't I fit seem into any of these.

My view is that we are best to sit back, ride it out and hope for the end of the world, that way we are proven right and can laugh at everyone for not listening to us. I have been awaiting this day forever ... so that I may gain control and rule the world mwahahaha

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MQ', 'W')ar. No one right now will buy a powerdown.

[bart]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MQ', 'N')ot flip at all. No one will buy a powerdown and the remaining option is war over scarce resources. No evidence? Guess I have wasted my time here then offering it in spades for a year come Tuesday.

[Specop_007]

Specop thinks you type too damn much Tres.
Cliff notes man, Cliff notes. Spec gets confused by all the bid words and long sentences.



Enjoys "Dick and Jane" books,
Specop_007

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MQ', 'W')ar. No one right now will buy a powerdown.

[Aaron]

This thread seems at least as useless as the threads (& members) it slams...

Honerable men can disagree yes?

Or is this just some kinda game for some of you?

Hannibal Ad Portus

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MQ', 'N')ot flip at all. No one will buy a powerdown and the remaining option is war over scarce resources. No evidence? Guess I have wasted my time here then offering it in spades for a year come Tuesday.