The gas shortages begin...

by **MonteQuest** » Sat 09 Jul 2005, 01:38:08

Indonesians Queued at Gas Stations

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')ndonesians queued for hours at gas stations across the country Thursday as fuel shortages began to bite amid calls by the president not to panic in the face of what he called an "energy crisis."

With global oil prices at record highs, state-owned oil company Pertamina has been unable to meet the soaring demand for fuel sparked by a strong economic recovery in Indonesia.

by **The_Toecutter** » Sat 09 Jul 2005, 01:50:59

That could be America in a few years(or perhaps this winter).

by **cube** » Sat 09 Jul 2005, 02:04:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('from article', 'A')lthough Indonesia is the sole Southeast Asian member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, falling investment in oil exploration and extraction in the country has reduced output in recent years and made the country a net crude importer for several months in 2004.

by **Eli** » Sat 09 Jul 2005, 02:20:50

Cube that is it exactly the kind of crap head statement that pisses me off.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')lthough Indonesia is the sole Southeast Asian member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, falling investment in oil exploration and extraction in the country has reduced output in recent years and made the country a net crude importer for several months in 2004.

by **pea-jay** » Sat 09 Jul 2005, 04:19:52

Indonesia's experience with gas lines is due in part to their continued insistence on maintaining fuel subsidies. By holding prices down, gas consumption is not affected. With their domestic oil supply peaking out it would only be natural that shortages would result. Higher prices would go a long way to alleviating these shortages, given the average indonesian's lower household income level.

by **shakespear1** » Sat 09 Jul 2005, 04:34:21

Once the cat is out of the bag that PO is near the Indonesians might just say "It is our national heritage and don't sell to foreigners". If that happens in one country it will catch like fire. :twisted:

by **KevO** » Sat 09 Jul 2005, 05:46:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shakespear1', 'O')nce the cat is out of the bag that PO is near the Indonesians might just say "It is our national heritage and don't sell to foreigners". If that happens in one country it will catch like fire. :twisted:

by **eastbay** » Sat 09 Jul 2005, 06:53:55

As an economics professor told me in early 1974, the only remedy for gas lines is higher prices, but in the case of Indonesia much higher prices would result in riots... so therefore a permanent state of lining up for gas has begun for at least one huge nation.

Who's next???

by **DantesPeak** » Sat 09 Jul 2005, 07:10:49

They may avoid roits now by price controls, but as production slumps and population grows the shortages will get worse. Unlike the US, Indonesia can't print up dollars to buy oil from other countries.

Ironically as the US expands its trade deficit at a rapid rate, to pay for increased oil imports at ever higher prices, currency traders have pushed up the value of the dollar. They perceive the expanding reliance on foreign imports not as a weakness but as a sign of strength, since other countries do not have the similar ability to cope with the energy price shockwave by running up dollar debts.

by **No-Oil** » Sat 09 Jul 2005, 07:16:02

I'll bet that their shortages are down to short sighted governments that thought that any dividend on $10 oil was well worth it. Now the Oil companies are pumping their wells dry & paying a pitance for the priviledge & selling it on the open market. Thus Indonesia has to pay market price for the oil !

It's about time all the supplier nations re-evaluated their contracts & if required, cancel all existing contracts & invoke new ones based on peak oil & decline data. Thus they should always have supply & the rest of the world can go begging. It's the only way to really kick off a cut back in use by the rich nations of the world. If they expect market prices to do this for them, they will be very disappointed.

if their leaders can't see the end in sight (maybe they can but are lining their own pockets) then they deserve a revolution. Putin & Chaves have the right idea, their own people & economy come first. The rest of the world stands in line ! That will be us soon

by **Leanan** » Sat 09 Jul 2005, 08:28:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ike the reason Cantarell and all of Mexico is in decline because of lack of investment.

The reason the US does not have enough refineries is because oil companys do not want to invest.

Or the reason North America has peaked in natural gas production is because of lack of investment in wells.

by **eastbay** » Sat 09 Jul 2005, 16:54:02

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/ ... 98/1/.html

It appears as though the fear of civil unrest trumps conservation. The Indonesian government has today backed off and is increasing the oil subsidy thereby reducing prices.

In other words, the Indonesian government has acted to create a higher and harsher cliff.

This is truly a major 'canary in the coal mine'.

by **Leanan** » Sat 09 Jul 2005, 19:25:41

And it's not just Indonesia that's doing things like that. India and China, the two fastest-growing oil importers, also subsidize oil. The Indians and Chinese are still paying 2003 prices.

That's why I'm not counting on too much demand destruction, at least not for awhile. The Westernized countries can afford the higher prices, and much of the developing world doesn't pay them.

by **RainShadow** » Sat 09 Jul 2005, 20:06:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', 'A')s an economics professor told me in early 1974, the only remedy for gas lines is higher prices...

by **Tyler_JC** » Sat 09 Jul 2005, 20:41:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RainShadow', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', 'A')s an economics professor told me in early 1974, the only remedy for gas lines is higher prices...

by **BabyPeanut** » Sat 09 Jul 2005, 21:00:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'T')he problem is that demand destruction is job destruction. When Bob decides to fill up the tank rather than buy another doll for his daughter, the economy suffers and someone at the doll factory might be out of a job.

by **Eli** » Sat 09 Jul 2005, 21:53:47

No ther world does not need more dolls in a landfil. But the world wants more baby dolls.

That is our system in a nut shell it is all about supplying and creating wants. If it was just about what we need to get by then it would be a very different system.

PO is going to make all of us ask what do I really need?

Bob might want to get a doll for his daughter but he needs is gas. And ya it is very important because people are going to loose there homes and whole sectors of the economy are going to be in deep trouble.

by **MonteQuest** » Sun 10 Jul 2005, 00:06:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', 'P')O is going to make all of us ask what do I really need?

by **DantesPeak** » Sun 10 Jul 2005, 00:26:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'A')nd it's not just Indonesia that's doing things like that. India and China, the two fastest-growing oil importers, also subsidize oil. The Indians and Chinese are still paying 2003 prices.

That's why I'm not counting on too much demand destruction, at least not for awhile. The Westernized countries can afford the higher prices, and much of the developing world doesn't pay them.

by **cube** » Sun 10 Jul 2005, 00:40:48

Gas prices in the US will never increase as much as what happened in Indonesia. The reason for this was b/c like most oil rich nations (or in this case former oil rich nation), Indonesia subsidized the cost of gasoline. I don't know by how much the Indonesian gov. used to subsidise gas but I read in Iran, gasoline costs about $0.50 a gallon

compare that to $2.50 in the US
Gasoline would cost roughly $1 a gallon assuming there were no taxes or subsidies. Every barrel of oil that gets sold domestically at a discount price is a barrel that could of fetched a premium on the open market. Add to the fact that the gasoline was being sold for less then "normal" market value you can see what happened. So where did the money to subsidise domestic gas consumption come from? Answer: oil exports. The party was over when Indonesia hit PO.

Once the subsidies ended gas costs shot up by 4 fold I believe???

When the rest of OPEC nations announce that they will end their fuel subsidies then that would be the "smoking gun" sign that the world has reached PO.

The gas shortages begin...

The gas shortages begin...

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