This fall or winter quarters we will probably begin to see oil hit $100+ a barrel. Where most begin to imagine how bad it will look in a place like the US or Europe but I ask what will happen to the poor countries around the world. As the price of oil rises many of the developing countries in Africa, Asia, S. America, and the Middle East will draw closer to the point of not being able to afford oil. The richer nations will keep consuming oil with a slow down in domestic and industrial use. I at first thought that market forces would never be able to correct such an embalance but it becomes closer to likey in the view above. However a situation might arrise in the US in which the gradual conservative reform as of late travels into the depths of fascism and most likely attempt to secure the energy and China army with new guns comes into the picture. Thats if China doesn't invade Taiwan sparking a US intervention and the list goes on. The Roman empire took a few hundred years to collapse. Given this don't expext to go to bed and the next day everything has changed. It has in your mind but the world needs time to catch up. It can be compared to looking at a timeline of a few hundred years sumed up by a 12inch number line... a lot of time and detail gets left out. If the third world was forced into accepting a lower quality of life because the rich countries say so, we might actually have another bump on the long way down. I personally wish for the US to collapse as this would allow it to start off new. When you look at some of the more sinical problems of the US you begin to realize that they extent to the core of the government going back to the Constition. Look at the Boston Tea party, a symbol of the revolutionary war, originated over tax.
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A reality amongst many
A reality amongst many
by scw86 » Sat 02 Jul 2005, 15:43:51
Last edited by scw86 on Sun 03 Jul 2005, 10:43:54, edited 1 time in total.
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by gt1370a » Sat 02 Jul 2005, 19:18:39
That's kind of weird. I'm not so sure we will see $100 oil this fall. Everyone seems pretty aware of a projected 1.5 Mb/day shortfall in supply, and so they're building stockpiles now, which is why we have $60 oil already. Oil at $60 is already causing demand destruction in poor countries like Zimbabwe, there was an excellent post here on that the other day.
Not sure what to say about the rest of your post, but I wouldn't expect any voluntary reduction in demand from the rich countries. Look at the lessons from Kyoto - the US basically said there's no way we're doing that if countries like China are exempt, we couldn't compete. The same thing would be said about oil rationing...
Not sure what to say about the rest of your post, but I wouldn't expect any voluntary reduction in demand from the rich countries. Look at the lessons from Kyoto - the US basically said there's no way we're doing that if countries like China are exempt, we couldn't compete. The same thing would be said about oil rationing...
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Re: A reality amongst many
by aldente » Sun 03 Jul 2005, 03:46:43
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('scw86', 'I') personally wish for the US to collapse as this would allow it to start off new.
Who do you refer to with "it"? The situation overall?
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by basketballjones » Sun 03 Jul 2005, 08:41:05
I think by "it" he means the World or atleast the United States. But this begs the question, would humanity make the same mistakes again?
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by aldente » Sun 03 Jul 2005, 10:49:25
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('basketballjones', ' ')But this begs the question, would humanity make the same mistakes again?
Agreed, what parameter would prevent history from repeating itself? A start- over scenario certainly wouldn't make a difference in that sense. This doesn't necessarily imply that there is only a get-it-over scenario left to work with...-
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by scw86 » Sun 03 Jul 2005, 11:17:16
Well...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')veryone seems pretty aware of a projected 1.5 Mb/day shortfall in supply
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')veryone seems pretty aware of a projected 1.5 Mb/day shortfall in supply
A shortage can cause the price of a commodity to go up, hence that 1.5mb/day shortage could just as easily end up as higher prices for the market. Then we will begin to see price wars between countries which will end up denying poverty struck nation the access to oil.
I think Americans will complain first, before they begin to stop driving and the government doesn't seem to up on saving with a war in Iraq and Afghanistan. The US army essentially being a conversion of oil into force via the (Tanks, Helicopters, Jets, Cruise Missiles, Navy, and Hummer!)
Also traditionally speaking winter tends to see the most oil demand of a year.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')il at $60 is already causing demand destruction in poor countries like Zimbabwe,
The very thing that could happen to Zimbabwe was exactly what I was talking about in the original post. However many believe the case above was caused by the economical and political instability.
As for the "it" this refers to the subject of the sentence which is the USA.
The fundamental problems with the government of the USA have led to many of the problem we face today. It (USA!) has brainwashed its citizens into a wasteful society in which people are detached from real social relationships and instead concentrates on the constant consumption of consumerism. "What will I buy next on a credit card!" The deepiest problem of the US is the corruption of the government by the rich via the use of soft money and lobbyist(A legal briber). Most of the Founding Farthers of America were rich white slave owners but then again a certain president with close ties to the oil industry was still able to steal an election and buy a relection.
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