[Leanan]

"What Happens If Oil Peaks?"

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3403854/

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ith oil prices breaking $60 a barrel, our story last week on a new book questioning OPEC’s ability to keep the world supplied with crude drew a heavy response from Answer Desk readers. Many, like Ray in Los Angeles, fear that coming oil shortages could bring “the end of life as we know it.” We agree. But that doesn’t have to be a bad thing.

[JoeW]

Msnbc.com seems to be acutely peak oil aware. Their first three 'business' stories this morning are:
• Gas prices rise nearly 8 cents a gallon
• Oil prices vault over $60 a barrel
• What happens if oil output 'peaks'?

The problem is that the individual who posed the question ("What happens...?") made it sound like there will not be a drop of oil left in 20 years. This is not really the kind of mainstream attention you want if you want peak oil theory out there in the open.

[Leanan]

Overall, I thought the article was pretty balanced. The conclusion was "Don't panic, because we don't know for sure when the peak will be and how it will go down." Which is pretty much the only reasonable reaction.

Especially well-done, IMO, was the explanation of why corporations and politicians don't have any incentive to do anything about the problem, and what we can do to fix that.

[Eli]

I thought the article was quite good as well.

The Peak Oil story is really starting to filter into the media. There was an article in the local paper that mentioned it this Sunday. We are one major event away from 100 a barrel.

If we see oil hit 100 a barrel Matt Simmons and Campbell, Deffeyes will all be doing the news show circuit, you can bet on it.

[JoeW]

Here are MSNBC's five business headlines right now... (Which one of these is different from the others?)
• Stocks struggle as oil hits a new high
• Gas prices rise nearly 8 cents a gallon
• Oil prices vault over $60 a barrel
• What happens if oil output 'peaks'?
• WP: Wal-Mart’s hometown goes high class

By the way, it is agreed that msnbc.com should be given credit for addressing the issue and their take is a very rational one.

[Sys1]

"There are a lot of very smart people out there working on solutions. As oil consumers, we all created this problem. The good news is that that means we all have the power to solve it."

It's not with this kind of article that people will get the 2 majors implications of peak oil :
1st) Growth can't go on forever, which mean capitalism is doomed. Economy will collapase.
2nd) We are 6,5 billions human beeing on Earth just because of green revolution.

This far too much optimistic conclusion is frightening... We MUST be pessimistic if we want to save something from this civilization.

They don't even admit that we are close from/past peak oil with :
"some strong arguments are now being offered that refute the “peak” forecasts."

- Business as usual -

[Grimnir]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s oil consumers, we all created this problem. The good news is that that means we all have the power to solve it.

[Sys1]

Grimnir : very true, this sentence is crazy.... By the way, beside peak oil, just think about global warming created by oil consummers. Climate is perhabs already out of control !

[PenultimateManStanding]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut while there’s plenty of cause for concern, and the need for major changes in U.S energy policy, we don’t believe that the “gloom and doom” scenarios are inevitable. It’s easy to see what could go wrong; it’s more important to focus on what can go right. Replacing oil as an energy source very well could create "the end of life as we know it." But that post-oil life could end up being a much better one.

[erl]

The Los Angeles Times has an article in the opinion section on peak oil and it's consequences.

[Waterthrush]

Yes, we are worried, and I find that most of my acquaintances are worried - but not enough to do much, if anything, about peak oil and its consequences. Many individual actions are easy to take, and I know many here are taking them. But what about the costs for communities, schools, religious organizations, in short, what about groups? I wonder if any of their leaders are wondering what happens if gasoline costs increase to $3/gallon? So many run on razor thin margins. Has anybody been to PTA meetings where the topic got discussed?

I think the way to proceed would be to lay down some benchmarks. For example, I would like to recommend if gasoline goes to $3/gallon, inter-school sports below the high school level be ended. These are kids, they would be just as happy kicking soccer balls intra-murally. I'd like to see groups make some prior decisions like this. I'd much rather my school money go to keeping the heating going rather than driving kids from one school to another for sports. As I said, they can manage with intramurals.

But decisions like this will need to be made. And these groups tend to have limited budgets. I wonder whether that will make decisions easier, or harder?

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut while there’s plenty of cause for concern, and the need for major changes in U.S energy policy, we don’t believe that the “gloom and doom” scenarios are inevitable. It’s easy to see what could go wrong; it’s more important to focus on what can go right. Replacing oil as an energy source very well could create "the end of life as we know it." But that post-oil life could end up being a much better one.

[RG73]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Waterthrush', 'I') think the way to proceed would be to lay down some benchmarks. For example, I would like to recommend if gasoline goes to $3/gallon, inter-school sports below the high school level be ended. These are kids, they would be just as happy kicking soccer balls intra-murally. I'd like to see groups make some prior decisions like this. I'd much rather my school money go to keeping the heating going rather than driving kids from one school to another for sports. As I said, they can manage with intramurals.

[Daculling]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RG73', '
')The amount of oil used to move kids around in buses is a trivial fraction of the daily oil used. Why not recommend that people stop driving around their Suburbans and Explorers by themselves and start carpooling? .

[Overlyhonest]

One of Kunstlers standard lines talks about people and what he tems as the Jiminy Cricket syndrome- if you wish for something hard enough you will get it.
Because of the two lines in the story about "not concentrating on what can go wrong but instead on what can go right" and the "we made/are the problem so that means we can fix it" I would put this story firmly in the Jiminy Cricket category.

[Golgo13]

Yep, that pretty much sums it up.

They basically said "Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain and listen to our abstract rationalizations instead".

[savethehumans]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f we see oil hit 100 a barrel Matt Simmons and Campbell, Deffeyes will all be doing the news show circuit, you can bet on it.

[Waterthrush]

RG73, while it is true that individuals driving gas guzzlers are a bigger problem, my focus is what institutions can do to cope with the next few years of escalating fuel prices. I very much doubt that we taxpayers will be voting many increases in property taxes when gasoline is at $3 gallon!

One of the reasons that I think a crisis will come sooner rather than later is that the fuel marketplace is not just producers and individual consumers. There are a host of institutional consumers as well. We occasionally talk about how the fuel increases will harm corporate bottom lines (and ultimately get passed to consumers) but we will also see a lot of pain among nonprofits of all stripes, most of whom are on highly inelastic budgets.

But it is true that it would save a lot more gas if people stopped driving their kids to school and used the busses.

And, it may come to that ... that would be a true marker of the arrival of peak oil, if we see a return to school bus use and abandonment of individual transporation.

[No kids, so what do I know! ]

[I_Like_Plants]

There are people spending hundreds of dollars a month just on gas, it's amazing. $3 gas doesn't scare me because I drive so little and can easily drive much less. But the average American has a budget that's a balancing act, a rise in gas prices plus the planned increases in the prime interest rate which would jack up the monthly payments on adjustable rate mortgages, would have quite an effect.

[Leanan]

Not quite "Jiminy Cricket." The article does suggest doing other things besides wishing really hard.

Honestly, that is about as pessimistic as you can expect the mainstream to get. One, people will just tune out anything that's too depressing. Two, even if they believe you, is there really any point in convincing Main St. that we're all doomed? Unless you're hoping they all kill themselves and thereby reduce the population pressure, I would say no. As long as people think there's a solution, they'll work toward it. If they think it's impossible, they won't even try.