by JohnDenver » Mon 18 Jul 2005, 00:34:33
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Wildwell', 'P')eak oil is hitting and will hit the poorest countries first,
I don't think this is correct. Nicaragua is actually toward the mid-range in terms of poverty. In fact, all of the countries currently suffering from recent oil problems (Nicaragua, the Philippines, Indonesia, Zimbabwe) seem to fit a similar profile:
Nicaragua
GDP per capita: $2,500
Labor force: 43% services, 42% agriculture, 15% industry
Philippines
GDP per capita: $4,200
Labor force: 39.8% agriculture, 19.4% government services, 17.7% services, 10.2% unemployment
Indonesia
GDP per capita: $3,100
Labor force: 45% agriculture, 16% energy, 39% services, 10.6% unemployment
Zimbabwe
GDP per capita: $2,400
Labor force: 66% agriculture, 10% industry, 24% services
There are about 188 countries in the world, and these countries rank as follows in terms of GDP/capita:
Nicaragua: 128
Philippines: 104
Indonesia: 116
Zimbabwei: About 127
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph-T/eco_gdp_cap&int=-1
As you can see, they all fall roughly in the middle (to lower middle) in terms of poverty ranking. If the nations were collapsing in order of poverty, we would expect to the most serious problems in countries like:
Afghanistan (ranking 171)
GDP per capita: $700
Labor force: 80% agriculture and animal husbandry. 10% services and other, 10% industry
Malawi (ranking 177)
GDP per capita: $670
Labor force: 86% agriculture
Mali (ranking 163)
GDP per capita: $860
Labor force: 80% agriculture, 19% services