[Pops]

But what about peak oil?

So after a decade and a half Exploring Hydrocarbon Depletion where are we? We’ve been down every side road. Imagine all the energy used tapping into this site in the last 14 years! Coulda made lots of bitcoin!

When is peak and how will it affect me?

—
My WAG, to borrow a phrase, is you're soaking in it.

Not sure if it’s truncated, shark-finned, or merely obscured by politics and techno-econo gyrations but we didn’t come out of the last crunch with a bunch more big reservoirs as I think usually happens, we came out with essentially a secondary recovery technique being used as the primary. Either Rock here might agree we didn’t come out with discoveries, we came out with reserve growth.

Hubbert guessed tech would improve, but didn’t think it would be fast enough to increase the peak or move it substantially, but that it would perhaps slow the rate of decline post peak. I’m thinking that is where we are, it’s just that this particular tech worked exceptionally well and super fast. It is skewing the peak that might well have happened without LTO.

The bad part of LTO is it lowered the price of oil right at the time the price signal was affecting consumption, alternatives, lifestyle, and how we thought about oil. But now, after a couple of years of low prices, major automakers are canceling cars! Ford will only make the Mustang and trucks/SUVs on truck chassis of various sizes. The US will be the largest oil exporter! Woot!

The worst thing about LTO is it is actually encouraging us to burn the remaining C+C as fast as possible, faster than if high price had continued and forced us to conserve. Mark one down for the Shark.

Politics will get screwier before we get the Peter Principle President out the door, until then who knows what is going to happen. Currently we’re all paying a Stick-it-to-Obama Iran premium when we fill up, could be lots more of that. I’d give a new Muslim war somewhere in the sand about an even chance–all he’s waiting for is the excuse (at least we know it won’t be with russia).

But the economy is heating up, especially with the corporate person and give-the-rich-a-hand (out) tax break. We all know 3 things precede a recession: overvalued stocks, inflation and high oil price. So a recession is likely fairly soon, says me, and with recession comes easing on oil markets so at least another cycle of oil price at these levels.

Lots of unknowns, political uncertainties, economic inevitabilities, tech Eurekas! and maybe hidden gems like Alaska and the North sea were in the day. But somewhere up this road there is the hard place where geology becomes apparent, in maybe the next 5 years we just might see over the edge and need to drop down a gear or three.

Any guesses?


http://crudeoilpeak.info/latest-graphs

[Cog]

The hate is going to eat you up Pops. Best pace yourself. Six years is a long time.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 's')omewhere up this road there is the hard place where geology becomes apparent, in maybe the next 5 years we just might see over the edge and need to drop down a gear or three.

Any guesses?


http://crudeoilpeak.info/latest-graphs

[Pops]

I believe much of the conventional increase was in Iraq and RU over the last decade. Both "political" in nature, as their production was constrained for reasons not geologic then brought back in the 00s. Something we've talked about here but for whatever reason I guess not easily quantified those kinds of factors don't get incorporated.

Ditto now with Venezuela crashing, they have the largest reserves in the world but ...




Russia was written off, Iraq pooh-poohed, tar-sands discounted and the Bakken of course.

Gotta learn from your mistakes.

[marmico]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')otta learn from your mistakes.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('marmico', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')otta learn from your mistakes.

[Pops]

Why only a decade?
Why not 2, or 10?

[Pops]

As you say, honestly, optimism only works until it doesn't, just like all the forecasts of peak have failed —because we haven't peaked. Not sure repeating those mantra is any better than repeating whatever peaker's koan.

What I'm trying to do is introduce back into the discussion all the above ground factors that influence production and peak rather than just repeat the mantras over and over. For example, if USSR hadn't of collapsed in the '90s, cutting production, RU may not have been been able to offset the N Sea decline in the 00s because they'd already burned through the upside.

Let's say you're a lumberman, doesn't matter how much profit there is once you've cut down so much timber you can't maintain production. You can switch to grubbing brush but it ain't like the big wood, sorta-speak...

PS, meant to add a picture this shows OPEC and RU

[Pops]

I forgot that site P, cool

[GoghGoner]

Too bad those charts haven't been updated for 2018 for the data browser. Anyway, got to look at the BP Statistical Energy Review of 2018 which the source of the data for the browser -- they are using a 3% decline rate to model future production. Right now, we are looking at >50% decline rates in the shale regions so I wonder what the real decline rate is for the globe now.

I often think about the demand increase we are seeing now because of cheaper prices. One of the obvious reasons for low prices is cheap interest rates. Oh well, since gas prices have gone up 35% in the last year, I have already switched out vehicles to save some gas money -- I suppose the herd isn't too far behind me.

[Pops]

POB does have good info, pretty intent on calling peak tho which was the fault with oildrum I think. If Matt Simmons had stuck with "only see po in the rearview" he'd have had a better legacy, lol. Dennis seems less intent on naming the day and hour.

The big fault seems ignoring above ground in the day to day. For example, is Venezuela's problem political or geological or economic or all three? Can they do anything? Will they?

Big driver of price atm is Iran sanctions. We know Iran is totally political and the price runup is trumps responsibility. OTOH, a trade war would at least bring prices down...

IEA says if political shortages happen, spare capacity will be low and of course spare capacity is the main driver of price.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ll of OPEC (save Iraq and perhaps SA?) is in decline.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', ' ')In reality, of course, economics and politics come into play so most fields were never produced flat out, they were managed for various reasons, some regulatory and other economic.

... So it isn't so much about what resources countries have but the ability to bring them on stream at the right time which is all to do about politics, economics, war etc.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'W')hy only a decade?
Why not 2, or 10?

[asg70]

If we want to project out another 20 years I find it hard to believe this site will still be here in this form for people to take a bow or eat crow over their predictions.

I'm actually quite shocked it's still here in much the same flavor it's been since it started after over a decade.

I mean, some of the endless prediction-as-sport gets silly if you're gonna be a head in a jar ala Futurama to witness whether it panned out as planned or not.



If doom is THAT far off, it's probably not worth investing a lot of mental cycles towards it and just get on with life.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', 'I') think the whole EV (of various flavors) and battery and green energy thing will start to make a meaningful difference. I think that will likely happen in less than two decades.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', '
')I mean, some of the endless prediction-as-sport gets silly if you're gonna be a head in a jar ala Futurama to witness whether it panned out as planned or not.