[StarvingLion]

Suicidal already bankrupt governments are now placing huge additional taxes on oil (even in Alberta) plus the "renewables" (including nuclear) craze means the liquid fuels catastrophe is guaranteed by 2019.

Saudi Arabia will blowup which will blowup all of Europe which will...

ALL CITIES ON FIRE BECAUSE THERE IS NO DIESEL/GAS TO MAINTAIN ORDER

The hordes of useless electrical engineers/programmers outnumber fossil related engineers by at least 10000 to 1. 10's of trillions of bad student loans in that group alone. Every one of those fools believes mass electrification can almost entirely replace fossils...they are like the crystalline entity in Star Trek.

Nobody in the oil business will invest with ELECTRIFICATION MORONS INC. in political control determined to flood the world with negatively priced electricity for EV users only (see nissan leaf owners getting free charges already) and sending the bill to FF users. Thats the only way the EV sales can go exponential - FREE JUICE.

Now we know the real reason why Saudi Arabia is going nuts pumping oil.

The 13th Century is at max 4 years away.

[onlooker]

Yes it is fair to say that the more extreme effects of Peak Oil are just around the corner.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'Y')es it is fair to say that the more extreme effects of Peak Oil are just around the corner.

[onlooker]

Very good points T, as Monte and others like to point out Peak will manifest itself in economic troubles. I think this combination of a turn to LTO-Unconventional Oil along with a definite slowdown in demand, I believe signals a step change along the downward slope. Of course other things factor into the health of the economy. One must also acknowledge that all this new debt to prop up Tar and Shale will be an extra drag on the economy going forward. So in my estimation signs exist of peak oil economic perturbations. Right now we seem to be on stuck in a hybrid of your B and C options. The world seems to be flat out pumping trying to lower price to boost demand which seems to have frozen after the shocks of 2008. This condition can be the precursor of a spike in prices as demand picks up while supply lags.

[Paulo1]

Totally agree with Tanada on this. I too am simply waiting to see what unfolds. I believe it will be soon, but do not accept it will be cataclysmic at first. I think there will be some head scratching and attempts to explain it all away for a good while, and that a Greer decline is more likely. Each day that seems relatively normal is a day to make something better for you and your family to rely upon. Plus, despite the economic ups and downs we live in a remarkable time. We should enjoy it while we can, and I don't mean some hedonistic consumption campaign, but just enjoy the relative peace, calm, and plenty.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'V')ery good points T, as Monte and others like to point out Peak will manifest itself in economic troubles. I think this combination of a turn to LTO-Unconventional Oil along with a definite slowdown in demand, I believe signals a step change along the downward slope. Of course other things factor into the health of the economy. One must also acknowledge that all this new debt to prop up Tar and Shale will be an extra drag on the economy going forward. So in my estimation signs exist of peak oil economic perturbations. Right now we seem to be on stuck in a hybrid of your B and C options. The world seems to be flat out pumping trying to lower price to boost demand which seems to have frozen after the shocks of 2008. This condition can be the precursor of a spike in prices as demand picks up while supply lags.

[GHung]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Paulo1', 'T')otally agree with Tanada on this. I too am simply waiting to see what unfolds. I believe it will be soon, but do not accept it will be cataclysmic at first. I think there will be some head scratching and attempts to explain it all away for a good while, and that a Greer decline is more likely. Each day that seems relatively normal is a day to make something better for you and your family to rely upon. Plus, despite the economic ups and downs we live in a remarkable time. We should enjoy it while we can, and I don't mean some hedonistic consumption campaign, but just enjoy the relative peace, calm, and plenty.

[noobtube]

Unlike the old fogeys who jumped the gun back in the early 80s, I knew there was a whole lot more gas left in the tank.

This time, in 2016, it is clear, the tank is running down to E for the economic engine that is BAU.

Posioned water, thinly disguised oil wars, immigration hysteria, empty suit candidates, stock market AND bond bubbles, expensive & bad food, almost total dependence on a Chinese industrial economy, exploding college/CC debt, crashing oil sector, dead malls & mass closures of stores, crumbling infrastructure, and so much more...

The collapse is happening now.

Of course, you won't know it until YOUR belly is grumbling. But for millions of people in the United States, that is a typical day.

Get ready for the next leg down the slope.

[onlooker]

Tanada this is a quote from Monte "In the EIA’s 2000 Energy Outlook, based upon historical trends, they projected oil demand in 2010 would be 96 mbpd and 115 mbpd in 2020. We are only consuming 94 mbpd in 2016. Had not the 2008 financial collapse occurred, would we be producing enough oil to meet demand? Even with the fracking boom and OPEC pumping flat out, we are only producing 96.5 mbpd, barely enough to have met projected demand in 2010, sixteen years ago." So, while overall demand has increased it has NOT increased as would be expected from historical trends. So that is in essence demand destruction.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'T')anada this is a quote from Monte "In the EIA’s 2000 Energy Outlook, based upon historical trends, they projected oil demand in 2010 would be 96 mbpd and 115 mbpd in 2020. We are only consuming 94 mbpd in 2016. Had not the 2008 financial collapse occurred, would we be producing enough oil to meet demand? Even with the fracking boom and OPEC pumping flat out, we are only producing 96.5 mbpd, barely enough to have met projected demand in 2010, sixteen years ago." So, while overall demand has increased it has NOT increased as would be expected from historical trends. So that is in essence demand destruction.

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '
')MQ and I have disagreed about many things for many years now. Conflating a slower than projected rate of growth with no growth at all is typical of the sorts of things we disagree upon

[onlooker]

Okay my bad Tanada, that as usual was a strong argument you made. I did not look at all those numbers and different values over time you posted. In a conciliatory fashion I think we can all then say we are riding some sort of plateau in geologic and economic terms. I will also say that more economic pressures are coming from overall debt in the world economy and the need for growth then probably any other factor and that the more advanced and mature economies are suffering from cost overloads as the book by Joseph Tainter describes when societies become ever more complex. The book being "The Collapse of Complex Societies"

[ROCKMAN]

T - "...oil demand per year today does not match projections made 15 years ago, but is that in any way actually a significant indicator of anything". Yes: a clear indication that folks should ignore predictions made by others who don't know what they don't know: the future. They are certainly free to call such efforts "guesses" but not "predictions" IMHO. Prediction implies some basis of facts. Facts that generally do not exist when it comes to predicting future oil prices or production rates. As you say the system is too dynamic. To model such a system properly requires CORRECTLY assigning values to a complex set of assumption. And even if by blind luck someone correctly assigns values to Assumption 1 thru 15 their prediction still not be worth a cray if their model isn’t constructed properly.

Every prediction has a long list of “ifs” behind it whether they are stated or not.

BTW today consumers are transferring a tad over $1 TRILLION PER YEAR to that "unofficially dead" oil industry. LOL.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('noobtube', '
')The collapse is happening now.

[shortonoil]

"I'm generally in agreement, excepting that I think Greer tends to discount black swans and inflection points. My take is that he posits that the fractal nature of modern systems means collapse will be distributed and incremental, but I'm not so sure. Many of our inter-reliant systems are gradually becoming hollowed out and fragile, and I've considered that cascading failures are quite possible (likely?) at some point."

The global system has become so interdependent that the failure of one piece of this puzzle could easily bring the whole thing down. Case in point is the global GPS system. It directs and guides the world's entire commerce process. Ships, planes, EMS vehicles, and about anything else that moves. The continuing operation of that system depends on one Belt Line Bandit that operates just outside of DC. The system drifts continuously, and must be calibrated continuously to keep it operational. About 200 engineers work 24 - 7 to keep it running. If the system was left unattended for a week it would become essentially useless. If that occurred almost everything moving on the planet would stop.

With increased complexity the system has become more prone to failure. Very few people have even an inkling of how fragile our entire 21'st century world has become!

[noobtube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('noobtube', '
')The collapse is happening now.

[ROCKMAN]

tube - "If the American economy needs $10/bbl oil to continue, and it sells for $15/bbl, watch the American way of life disappear before your eyes." Sorry but you lost me there. If the US economy needed $10/bbl oil back when it was selling for $90+/bbl and our "way of life" didn't disappear then why might it disappear at $30/bbl?

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 't')ube - "If the American economy needs $10/bbl oil to continue, and it sells for $15/bbl, watch the American way of life disappear before your eyes." Sorry but you lost me there. If the US economy needed $10/bbl oil back when it was selling for $90+/bbl and our "way of life" didn't disappear then why might it disappear at $30/bbl?

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('noobtube', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('noobtube', '
')The collapse is happening now.