[Tikib]

As everyone knows theirs two stings in the tale to Peak Oil, the first is peak liquids and the second is peak energy. We might be on target to get through peak energy but we are defintely behind the curve on peak liquids.

The way to get through the first crisis is to convert trucks to LNG. I am sure batteries are better for non fossil fuel sources of energy but our primary energy source at the current time is actually gas.

A crtical part of this is that the compression can be done electrically. So it also passes on some of the energy costs to the grid forcing the uptake of alternative energy.

[ROCKMAN]

Tikib - Here's the problem: there have been numerous cures offered for our energy situation such as yours. It's obvious a good idea. But now you have to follow thru: how much would it cost and how do you force folks, including the politicians, to pay that price?

So please give it a shot: how much would it cost, how long would it take and how would the process be put into action? Can you come up with some realistic answers? There are abundant "good ideas". The "great idea" would be how to initiate and finance such actions.

[sparky]

.
tikib , kudos you got it right ,
a small quibble , pretty much on Rockman line .
LNG have a lower power density than diesel ,
hint , that why they use diesel .
you are certainly right in mentioning a phase shift from peak liquid to peak energy
it's , in my mind the very crux of the problem
...transition from an energy system to another ( whatever that is )

[Tikib]

Well a massive subsidy on LNG gas vehicles would help a lot. My opinion is that the market will eventually do this anyway. But it will reduce the depth of the crisis if we start conversions now.

The problem that people like Elon Musk don't see is that will suffer an energy crisis at the same time as the fuel crisis it just won't be as severe. There won't be enough electricity availible to power electric vehicles.

But there will still be a fair amount of gas at least for the next 10 years.

[Keith_McClary]

Natural Gas-Powered Volvo Trucks
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')atural gas options are viable for local and regional haul fleets concerned about CO2 emissions and wanting to utilize our nation’s abundant supply of natural gas to reduce dependence on foreign oil. Despite short-term infrastructure questions regarding widespread adoption of natural gas as a heavy-duty truck fuel, it’s clear this segment will grow over the next several years.

Today Volvo is delivering factory-built VNM 200 & VNL 300 natural gas spark ignition powered trucks for local and regional haul applications, featuring Cummins ISL G and ISX12 G compressed natural gas (CNG) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) powered engines.

[Tikib]

Yea we need to get as many of those on the road before the coming oil crisis hits.

The other thing is that they are actually really good for the envrionment too. Once you put enough of them on the roads the price of methane spikes and every molecule of methane has value and capitilism will do its best to stop putting it into the atmosphere.

[davep]

Any travel to and from Britain would be verboten though. They're not allowed on ferries or in the channel tunnel.

[yellowcanoe]

LNG conversions are not cheap. I think it is highly questionable that gas prices will remain low long enough for a LNG conversion to pay off. Despite the much hyped shale gas boom, the United States is still a net importer of natural gas. As LNG export facilities come on line (starting with Sabine Pass in 4Q 2015) natural gas prices in North America will start to rise towards the world price (minus a few dollars due to the cost of liquifying and transporting natural gas for the international market). There is also some question as to how much shale gas can ultimately be recovered.

We need to focus on transportation technologies that don't require the use of fossil fuels.

[Tikib]

LNG is a transition fuel IMHO. Fracking plays can be profitable for much longer once gas becomes more valauble. And there is currently unexploited offshore gas because gas isn't valauble enough yet. All it does is the kick the can 5-10 years down the road. If we don't have a source of energy competitive with fossil fuels by 2020 we are sunk.

[davep]

In continental Europe (e.g. France and Germany), even medium-sized cities are getting good tram infrastructure. There have been quite a few near me (such as Dijon and Besançon) over the past couple of years. I see that as a good investment for the future.

[Tikib]

So having looked at the science of it. LNG makes sense as transport fuel for the next 5-10 years, and more specifically for larger vehicles like buses, trucks and ships. So it will probably replace diesel.

Meanwhile smaller vehicles are more likely to be powered by electricity.

Theres no easy replacement for kerosene as far as I can see... Which means that I would expect to see passenger planes almost drop off the map for 10 years or so.

[StarvingLion]

"Meanwhile smaller vehicles are more likely to be powered by electricity."

No. The "renewables" scam is going to collapse instead.

[davep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('StarvingLion', '&')quot;Meanwhile smaller vehicles are more likely to be powered by electricity."

No. The "renewables" scam is going to collapse instead.

[StarvingLion]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('StarvingLion', '&')quot;Meanwhile smaller vehicles are more likely to be powered by electricity."

No. The "renewables" scam is going to collapse instead.

[davep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('StarvingLion', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('StarvingLion', '&')quot;Meanwhile smaller vehicles are more likely to be powered by electricity."

No. The "renewables" scam is going to collapse instead.

[ROCKMAN]

Tiki - "My opinion is that the market will eventually do this anyway" And this is where I have serious doubts. The "market" isn't going to invest hundreds of $billions in expanding the CNG delivery infrastructure until there are sufficient number of CNG vehicles on the road. And that isn't going to happen until there's a widespread CNG delivery infrastructure in place. Of course that was the same dilemma faced when gasoline/diesel ICE's hit the market about a century ago. And it took decades for that chicken/egg problem to correct itself. It’s difficult for me to envision we’ll have decades to resolve the issue.

Consider why Ford went with gasoline instead of diesel: there was almost no market for the gasoline component of the refining process at the time. Thus there was a very cheap source and thus a great market force to take advantage of the situation. OTOH that’s not the situation we have today with NG and certainly won’t be the situation when NG prices eventually increase. So back to the same question I asked before: what will be the source of the hundreds of $billions needed to get a significant CNG delivery infrastructure and fleet of vehicles in place in a time frame that would help the situation? Unfortunately you can’t start a “solution” with the word “if”.

[Tikib]

Well like a said a large subsidy would help. Compared to other things your government spends money on(read foreign wars) it would be pocket change.

When the difference in the cost of diesel compared to the cost of LNG gets high enough the market will correct itself. Of course the time neccessary for correction will cost the economy a lot of money.

From my point of view almost every day I seem to hear news of new gas discoveries. I almost never hear news of new conventional oil deposits.

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tikib', 'F')rom my point of view almost every day I seem to hear news of new gas discoveries. I almost never hear news of new conventional oil deposits.

[Scrub Puller]

Yair . . .

Maybe slightly O/T but when it comes to delivery of gasoline and diesel fuel in the USA how is the product shifted to the roadhouse/service station?

I assume it travels by pipe line between major centres and then by truck?

Cheers.