[dissident]

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/ ... -2019.html

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')azprom and the Turkish company Botas Petroleum Pipeline Corporation have confirmed their intention to pump the initial shipment of natural gas into Turkey through the new pipeline in December 2016. The bilateral agreement will be signed before the end of the second quarter of 2015. These latest negotiations to get “Turkish Stream” up and running is a clear signal to the European Union that Gazprom’s southern detour is being developed in with an eye toward the future. And there is no Ukraine in that future.

[ROCKMAN]

I don't have all the pieces of the puzzle lined up so just a guess. In the short term the EU wants to keep the transit NG thru the Ukraine operational. In the longer term the may be very happy to see the Ukraine roll in its supply chain diminished. At that point in time the fate of the Ukraine may be of little concern to the EU.

[dissident]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'I') don't have all the pieces of the puzzle lined up so just a guess. In the short term the EU wants to keep the transit NG thru the Ukraine operational. In the longer term the may be very happy to see the Ukraine roll in its supply chain diminished. At that point in time the fate of the Ukraine may be of little concern to the EU.

[AgentR11]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dissident', 'I') can see the stellar intellects in Brussels dragging their heels on getting the infrastructure ready in order to force Russia to ship through Ukraine. Russia has been sending the message loud and clear that it will not have its schedule twisted this way, but the hubris in Brussels knows no bounds.
A key detail in the article is that Turkish Stream will be online at the end of 2016. So 2019 is not the date that Brussels should be waiting for while it does nothing.

[Tanada]

As I understand it Iran also wants this deal to go forward because building a new export line to either parallel or commingle with the GAZPROM line through Turkey would be much easier/cheaper than making their own exclusive deal with Turkey.

[sparky]

.
However one cut it , it seems Turkey , already a big player in hydrocarbons transit is going to become the very hub of European energy ,
that's for a third of Russian gas , gas and oil from Azerbaijan , some of the huge reserves from Turkestan if they can be prized off from China , Iran has the potential , if the politics play out ( big if )
even the biggest producer of LNG ,Qatar, could connect to the new spider web of this pipelinistan.
the result would be a flood of energy for Turkey , transit rights are often taken in nature as gas or oil ,
in fact there would be so much , they might have to take cash .
the most developed Turkish construction companies would make a motza too , all along the lines

the Turkish government is pretty independent minded those days , and it has the military might to negotiate with it's close neighbours .

Something to watch ..... how the relations with Europe play itself out ?

[ROCKMAN]

T - I be just across the way from Turkey in Athens at the end of April hanging with some locals. I know they've been paying close attention to the energy vistas of Turkey so it will be interesting to hear their thoughts. I'll also briefly transit thru Istanbul and try to pick up some grass roots thoughts on the subject. I do like to hang out in local bars for local flavor. In this case it will probably be coffee bars. LOL.

[sparky]

.
A man after my own heart , I always seems to end up in the "colourful" parts of a foreign city ,
there is the bridge across the Bosporus linking Europe and Asia , very symbolic ,a must see

[ROCKMAN]

sparky - It will be an interesting mixed bag of encounters from US embassy personnel (my daughter's co-workers), the affluent on an island hopping cruise, old farts sitting in a café milking their one cup of expresso per day and cabbie, one of my favorite types to hang with...never met one that didn't have a strong opinion on EVERYTHING. LOL.

[dissident]

http://lenta.ru/news/2015/04/13/threaten/

Gazprom has threatened to cut off gas supplies to any countries that want to sabotage Turkish Stream.

According to Miller South Stream was sabotaged to keep Ukraine a transit country. This will not be tolerated for Turkish Stream. So Gazprom will complete the pipeline to the EU border and then wait for the EU to make up its mind. Implicit in this is that the EU will have no gas until it gets its act together.

Looks like the EU is trying to pressure Gazprom to keep the Ukraine route open. I guess the EU will have to learn the hard way whose gas is involved.

[dissident]

Here is an opinion piece in English highlighting the new approach:

http://tass.ru/en/opinions/789287

[fleance]

It seems that Russia are building stronger relationship with their ally China. Since, they are considering China to be gas carrier too.

[Ulenspiegel]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dissident', 'h')ttp://lenta.ru/news/2015/04/13/threaten/

Gazprom has threatened to cut off gas supplies to any countries that want to sabotage Turkish Stream.

According to Miller South Stream was sabotaged to keep Ukraine a transit country. This will not be tolerated for Turkish Stream. So Gazprom will complete the pipeline to the EU border and then wait for the EU to make up its mind. Implicit in this is that the EU will have no gas until it gets its act together.

Looks like the EU is trying to pressure Gazprom to keep the Ukraine route open. I guess the EU will have to learn the hard way whose gas is involved.

[AgentR11]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ulenspiegel', 'T')he South Stream issue was that Russia and a few EU members pursued a strategy that was not within the EU law, then came the brutal warning shot from Brussel. That's life.

[Cid_Yama]

Russia has made a deal with Greece to pay them in advance on the profits of running the gas from Turkey through Greece.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')sipras and his Energy Minister Panagiotis Lafazanis reportedly signed a “memorandum of cooperation” with Gazprom and the Russian government to help with a pipeline to Turkey that will diversify natural gas shipments to Europe away from Ukraine. Greece will be a transit hub.

Tsipras was in Russia last week and photographed by reporters shaking hands with Russian president Vladimir Putin, announcing pledges to tilt Athens a wee bit more towards Moscow than Berlin. Part of that promise includes allowing Russian natural gas pipelines to connect to Europe via Greece in what was once dubbed the South Stream project. This is more of a real estate and political deal than an investment, as Greece is hardly a capital player in today’s market. Greece might not look like the perfect ally, but its geographic location will help Turkey and Russia gas companies get their goods to Europe.

[Strummer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cid_Yama', 'H')ey Germany, want to be warm in winter, how about those reparations.

[Ulenspiegel]

AgentR11,

you first have to analyse the basic strategic situation, and then to check your assumption with hard data.

The Russian export depends to 80% on oil and gas, there are no alternatives for income, the situation even has worsened the last years. Pipelines, that were build with Russian money too, chain the producer to certain customers, no short term fix possible. This is the working model of strategic papers on this topic.

What are the observations? During the last years, larger industrial contracts of Russian suppliers with (German) customers were modified in favour of the customers, i.e. the Russian bargain power was reduced, as predcited by experts around 2005.

And in most cases the impact of increasing volume of LNG was not included in the projections, of course this development does not improve the Russian position. This means for example that each nuclear rector that goes online again in Japan (and reduces NG imports) hurts Russia as the globally available volume of LNG increases.

The basic weakness of Russia is that it can only hurt Europe by cutting very deep into her own flesh, possible but IMHO quite unlikely when the Russian economy is already expected to shrink by 5% without such a move.

And onces again, check the capacity of North Stream and what is actually used.

[Ulenspiegel]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Strummer', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cid_Yama', 'H')ey Germany, want to be warm in winter, how about those reparations.

[Cid_Yama]

No, he is correct. Leverage against Germany would be dependent on Russian acquiescence, either way. But, Russia may be unhappy with Germany for a variety of reasons, I can readily think of a couple offhand. So Russia may find it ... convenient ... to use Greece's claims, to express it's displeasure. Especially since it has other ready customers for the gas, and Greece would allow it to transit gas to the rest of Europe without going through Germany.

You are incorrect as to alternatives for Russian income; i.e. China's contracts for a variety of resources, and impending infrastructure projects across Eurasia, as well as your being EXTREMELY optimistic about prospects for LNG.

China's consumption of Russian gas is limited only by it's current pipeline capacity, and that is being rectified.

Russia has weaned itself from Europe by way of the sanctions that were supposed to hurt them.

Russia no longer needs Europe. But Germany needs Russia. And Merkel wants to be part of the new Eurasia.

The lines of power have shifted. Within 3 years the infrastructure will be in place. Germany can join the new, or wither with the old. I believe Germany has already made it's decision to look to the East.

[Ulenspiegel]

Get a little bit hard data on the producer of equipment for industry (this includes oil and NG), then you may revise your opinion. Russia is a country with the GDP of Italy and severe structural issues, limited access to modern western technology really hurts BAU and especially transition to a more diverse economy.

LNG is an additional factor, that was usually not on the screen ten years ago, it is not a silver bullet, but does not improve the Russian position.

The Chinese pay much less for the Russian NG than the Europeans, really smart move of the Russians to create many stranded assets in order to get less for their gas. Hint: many infrastructure was partially paid by Russian companies.

Long-term POV: the real elephant in the room is efficiency. 2% annual reduction of german NG imports would mean what? Here you should get a feeling for different options.

Your eastward orientation of Merkel is one of your pipedreams, please get real. She has labeled Putin as not being rational and is one main driving force for longer sanctions.