[dashster]

Saudi Arabia. According to this oilprice.com article Saudi Arabia is forecasting a 38.6 billion dollar deficit next year, its' first budget deficit since 2011 and largest ever.

However apparently they don't spell out what price they see for 2015, and in the article there are various people quoted for what Saudi Arabia actually is forecasting the price of oil to be in 2015:

Monica Malik, the chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank: $55
Saudi investment bank Jadwa Investment: $56
National Commercial Bank: $61
Emad Mostaque, an oil strategist at Ecstrat: $63
John Sfakianakis, the former chief economic adviser to the Saudi Finance Ministry: $75

[Sixstrings]

And oil headed for the $40's:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')rent crude plunged below $57 per barrel briefly on Tuesday, marking a new five-and-a-half-year low as traders bet that the global oversupply of oil will continue deep into 2015.

The benchmark has fallen more than 45pc since June and is on track for its worst year since 2008, while oil traded in the US is now poised to crash through the $50 per barrel level.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/11317216/Brent-oil-hits-new-low-as-Opec-price-war-deepens-slump.html

[ROCKMAN]

If oil stays between $55 to $60 per bbl thru 2015 the KSA revenue for the year will be the 6th highest yearly revenue they've taken in since they began exporting oil. It will also be 56% higher then their oil export revenue in 2009. And, adjusted for inflation, their 2015 revenue will still exceed revenue earned in the 37 years between 1970 and 2007. And that $39 billion deficit? The KSA has a reserve of over $700 billion sitting in secure paper and investments like US T-bills, etc.

I don't expect to see much change in day to day life for the average Saudi.

[Sixstrings]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'I')f oil stays between $55 to $60 per bbl thru 2015..

[Subjectivist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'I')f oil stays between $55 to $60 per bbl thru 2015..

[BobInget]

A majority of Americans have been led to believe there are two scientifically valid sides to the issue of Anthropgenic Global Warming. Some, reading these pages at one time believed cigarettes may not be good for a person but still, relatively benign. Why? "Because smoking gives me great pleasure". By now experience may have changed minds.

I also believe almost no one here believes we, North Americans, are informally engaged along with Russia, China, Japan in deadly struggles for the world's remaining, rapidly diminishing #1 fossil fuel, oil. Some here obviously avert our eyes from disturbing new reports concerning World Wide Crude Oil Wars or struggles of poverty stricken victims of repressive monarchs and power crazed generals.

Can we predict future oil prices based on number and severity of Allied air strikes?

Here's a question for the board.. How much treasure--- How many American lives--- do you believe worth, siding with one of the most repressive regimes on the planet to obtain cheaper oil? How long should we 'protect' The House of Saud against their own people? Is $40/$50 oil worth the effort? How about $20? Are you prepared to put aside caution for $1.50 a gallon gasoline?

Let's look at just two troublesome, 'unintended consequences'.

#1) The US lost Venezuelan supply to China.. That's a huge loss, so far, largely ignored. More difficult to ignore will be oil shortages, higher prices. Venezuela is currently America's fourth biggest supplier.

#2) One million absent barrels p/d out of Libya, doubtless for more then a year.
I'm guessing destroying Libya's main ports was not unintentional. Deny a tenuous sitting government revenue to pay fighting men is hardly a new tactic.

The two examples sited above are not conjecture. I realize the strategy is to bankrupt Venezuela, forcing them back into US orbit. China however has been quicker off the mark. Venezuela's Orinoco "tar" sands, rich off shore, all now safely tucked away in China's fine hands.

[Shaved Monkey]

When the price does snap back, after Venezuela, Russia and Iran are sufficiently politically weakened.
The consumer and global economies will be shocked back into recession, with possibly lower prices than we had before this little game started.
and we will have a lot of political instability spread wide and far

[Sixstrings]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Subjectivist', 'H')ow do you reach this bizarre conclusion that the shale boom is "only going to get bigger"?.

[Sixstrings]

Look at it this way..

If there's a competition between lighter crude and US shale going on, then who is going to win that ultimately?

What has to happen, for one side to win that? Answer: one side lowers production. So, what can lower production? Two things:

1. OPEC eventually cuts production in a desperate bid to get oil prices higher, but yet they know they can't do that because higher prices just makes shale more profitable, no?

2. Another way oil production may lower would be due to instability. The other oil producing nations are more vulnerable to instability. Whereas, there's never going to be any instability in the US that could stop shale oil.

I'm no oil expert, just doing a thought exercise here, am I wrong?

[dashster]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'I')f oil stays between $55 to $60 per bbl thru 2015 the KSA revenue for the year will be the 6th highest yearly revenue they've taken in since they began exporting oil. It will also be 56% higher then their oil export revenue in 2009. And, adjusted for inflation, their 2015 revenue will still exceed revenue earned in the 37 years between 1970 and 2007.

[Sixstrings]

US dollar has best year in ten years:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')ollar has its best year since 2005



NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — The U.S. dollar ended its strongest year since 2005 with gains versus major rivals as investors penciled in further strength in the U.S. economy and diverging monetary policy paths between a more hawkish Federal Reserve and dovish European and Japanese central banks.

...

Overall analysts are bullish on the dollar going into 2015, as a strong improvement in the U.S. economy is seen as pushing the Federal Reserve closer toward raising interest rates.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dollar-index-on-track-for-best-year-since-2005-2014-12-31

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'L')ook at it this way..

If there's a competition between lighter crude and US shale going on, then who is going to win that ultimately?

What has to happen, for one side to win that? Answer: one side lowers production. So, what can lower production? Two things:

1. OPEC eventually cuts production in a desperate bid to get oil prices higher, but yet they know they can't do that because higher prices just makes shale more profitable, no?

2. Another way oil production may lower would be due to instability. The other oil producing nations are more vulnerable to instability. Whereas, there's never going to be any instability in the US that could stop shale oil.

I'm no oil expert, just doing a thought exercise here, am I wrong?

[Sixstrings]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'Y')ou forgot #3. The massive depletion rates in multifrack horizontal shale wells cuts US shale production by 40% within 12 months and the 'oil glut' proves to be an illusion driven by world economic recession. In November 2015 US shale oil produces about 3,600,000 bbl/d compared to the 6,000,000 bbl/d it produced in November 2014 . The 2,400,000 bbl/d drop wipes out the illusory glut while also bankrupting shale well companies because they can not pay their debt service at $55.00/bbl sale prices for WTI. In 2015-2020 people are afraid to invest heavily in Shale Oil Fracking in the USA because so many companies went out of business due to over production in 2014. It takes years of persistently high prices for people to be willing to risk investing in Shale Oil again. By the time they do depletion in conventional oil has progressed far enough that Shale can not make up the difference and world peak is recognized.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'m just not an expert on this stuff, you say "multifrack horizontal shale depletion in 12 months" and okay that sounds scientific to me, but others say there's 30 years to go on shale.

[shallow sand]

Saw a chart on other board which showed just under 50% of ND oil production was from wells 9 months old or less.

Looks like the average per day for older Bakken wells is around 50 and for EFS is around 35. Harder to tell on Permian, but appears maybe closer to EFS number I'm citing, than Bakken in ND. I'm just taking this from info I've read, not anything I've calculated.

Concern I would have is the horizontal leg "clogging up" over time. Just a guess on my part and would appreciate input

To me a big deal if these 30,000+ new well will hold up at a strong rate long term. Apparently shale makes up about 5.2 of 9.1 million BOPD of us production. How these wells hold up will have a big impact.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')oncern I would have is the horizontal leg "clogging up" over time. Just a guess on my part and would appreciate input

To me a big deal if these 30,000+ new well will hold up at a strong rate long term. Apparently shale makes up about 5.2 of 9.1 million BOPD of us production. How these wells hold up will have a big impact.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'m just not an expert on this stuff, you say "multifrack horizontal shale depletion in 12 months" and okay that sounds scientific to me, but others say there's 30 years to go on shale.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')ockdoc123, do the old fracked vertical wells like they used to drill into shale formations show the same kind of very high depletion rates as the horizontal multi completion wells?